Abstract

In recent years, water crisis caused by human activities has attracted much more attention from the public, and the water security problem has become a hot spot in the world. In this paper, applying the theory of system dynamics, a system dynamic model for urban water cycle was developed to simulate the conversion and consumption processes of water resources between a regional social system and water system. To improve the guarantee capacity of water security, three types of industrial development patterns were designed. Moreover, an optimization model for water security regulation schemes was developed. Based on simulation of the key indexes on regional water security status, the value of water security degree was evaluated under different industrial development patterns, and the optimal scheme obtained according to these assessment results. Results from investigation and research in Zhengzhou City, China found that all seven regulation schemes could increase water security degree to different extents; and water security degree of the schemes with compound patterns was higher than the schemes with a single pattern. Scheme 7 was recommended as the ideal scheme for Zhengzhou City.

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