Abstract

Water crisis and, particularly, drop in rainfall in Iran are not only an environmental matter but also a security issue. This paper tries to draw attention to the substantial social consequences of climate change in Iran and particularly addresses whether precipitation scarcity from 2007 to 2014 has a conflict-making effect in the province of Iran using the system GMM model. We show that rainfall shortage and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), as an index of drought, could stimulate the propensity for individuals to engage in disruptive activities in provinces of Iran.

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