Abstract

The study analyses impact of climate change and land use land cover (LULC) on runoff of Hyderabad city, India for years 1995, 2005, 2016 and 2031. Flood vulnerability was evaluated for extreme historic and future rainfall events. Maximum daily rainfalls of 132, 181 and 165 mm that occurred in the decades of 1990–2000, 2001–2010 and 2011–2016 were considered for historic rainfall-runoff modelling. Complementarily in climate change, maximum daily rainfall of 266 mm predicted during 2020–2040 by Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory-Coupled Model 3 (GFDL-CM3) Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, was analysed for rainfall-runoff scenario in 2031. LULC was assessed from historic maps and master plan of the city. Peak runoff was modelled in Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) for corresponding daily rainfall and LULC. Floodplain of river Musi was modelled in Hydrological Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS). Results showed that changing rainfall and LULC increased peak runoff by three times, and flood depth in river increased by 22% from 1995 to 2031. In 2016 and 2031, 48 and 51% of the city was highly vulnerable. Five detention basins were proposed to combat increasing runoff, due to which, high vulnerable area reduced by 8% in 2016 and 9% in 2031.

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