Evaluating the strictest water resources management policy in China based on the S-CAD method

Shortages and the inefficient management of water resources are common challenges facing the world and are also the focus of the sixth United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDG6) (Liu et al., 2019; Ma et al., 2020). Strengthening water governance through the formulation of water policies is an effective approach around the world (Loch et al., 2020; Ouyang et al., 2022). The Chinese government has always paid great attention to water legislation and formed a policy system with water law as the core, covering pollution control, unconventional water resources utilization, ecological protection and restoration, water conservation and carbon reduction, green transformation, and the improvement of urban and rural living environments (Shen, 2014). To address the challenges of maintaining water resources, the water environment, and water security in China, the Chinese government implemented the SWRM system in 2011, then China's central government issued the Opinions on Implementing the Strictest Water Resources Management System in 2012, completing a milestone measure for water resources management. The critical content of the SWRM system is to establish the ‘three red lines’ of water management. The first measure is to establish a red line for the control of water resources development and utilization and strictly implement total water use control. The second measure is to establish a red line for water use efficiency control and resolutely curb water waste. The final one is to establish a red line to limit the absorption of pollution in water functional areas and strictly control the total amount of sewage discharged into rivers (Shen, 2021; Cheng et al., 2022a). The SWRM policy also consists of four systems, including the total water consumption control system, water efficiency control system, water function area pollution limitation system, and water resources management responsibility and assessment system.

Since the implementation of the SWRM policy in 2011, it has been applied and implemented in water management systems across various regions and has initially realized the control goals of resource management, which has changed the water shortage, waste, and pollution situations in China to a certain extent (Cheng et al., 2022c). The SWRM policy has also been continuously improved, with dozens of specific policies being introduced around the country and a relatively complete policy system has been preliminarily formed (Chen & Zhang, 2015). Given that the SWRM policy plays a critical role in water resources management and water governance in China, it is necessary and important to evaluate the SWRM policy from multiple dimensions and methods.

In recent years, many scholars have studied the SWRM policy from various dimensions such as the relationship between water consumption and economic development (Sheng & Qiu, 2022), water rights system (Guo et al., 2020), regional water use efficiency (Cheng et al., 2023), water resources security (Wang & Dai, 2021), and policy content analysis (Cheng et al., 2022a). Meanwhile, the SWRM policy has been evaluated and analyzed using various methods such as the spatial panel data model (Schoeman et al., 2019), qualitative analysis (Liu et al., 2020), the bi-level diagnosis and optimal model (Wu & Wang, 2014), the interval event study method (Cheng et al., 2022c), and text mining (Cheng et al., 2022b). However, there is still a lack of holistic evaluation of the SWRM policy formulation and effectiveness. What are the SWRM policy's goals? What is the strategy by which they are implemented? What are the actual effects? Is there consistency and an inherent logic in the policy's implementation?

To address these questions, this study used the S-CAD method to evaluate the SWRM policy's effectiveness in terms of consistency, adequacy, and dependency. Therefore, the contribution of this study is twofold. On the one hand, it provides theoretical support for the optimization of the SWRM policy as well as water governance in China. On the other hand, it enriches the knowledge body of global water policy assessment and water resources management.

The remainder of the article is organized as follows. First, the research method is presented following the Introduction section, which includes the study's theoretical background, the construction of the evaluation framework, and data acquisitions. Second, the research results are presented and discussed from the dimensions of the policy's overall effect, consistency, adequacy, and dependency. The final section summarizes the study's findings and provides conclusions.

Policy evaluation is the process of understanding the effects of public policy, determining whether the effects are consistent with the intended effects, and determining whether these effects are consistent with the policy's costs (Caffrey & Munro, 2017). Judging whether there is a discrepancy between the policy design intent and the actual effect, policy evaluation can provide a reference perspective for policymakers and provide evidence for policy improvement (Mergoni & De Witte, 2022). Policy evaluation includes the pre-evaluation, implementation, and post-evaluation of policies. Presently, scholars generally include the pre-evaluation in the scope of ‘policy analysis.’ In contrast, ‘policy evaluation’ in a narrow sense refers exclusively to post-evaluation (Huitema et al., 2011; Magro & Wilson, 2019).

The S-CAD method can be applied to pre-policy planning and post-policy evaluation. This method is systematic in analysis and logical in its integrity, which helps improve the science, effectiveness, and feasibility of policy implementation. Compared with traditional qualitative methods, such as case studies, the S-CAD method recognizes and respects the different positions and values of different subjects, and takes this as the starting point. Second, the S-CAD method is more comprehensive in assessing the effectiveness, efficiency, and feasibility of target policy from the dimensions of consistency, adequacy, and dependence. In addition, the S-CAD method has an explicit guiding framework that does not require complex techniques and specialized software, and is easy to apply. Due to the advantages of the S-CAD method, it has been widely used in many policy evaluation fields such as urban planning and land policy evaluation (Wei et al., 2020).

The first and most crucial step in the S-CAD method is identifying the ‘subjectivity.’ The ‘dominant view’ is determined and the value is established, i.e., from the point of view of policy makers and to establish the value according to their roles and functions. The Decision on Accelerating the Reform and Development of Water Resources issued by China's central government in 2011 clearly requires that the SWRM policy be implemented. The Ministry of Water Resources and local governments have introduced a series of policies, forming a SWRM policy system. The Chinese central government proposed the SWRM policy, which is dominant in the government's overall policy system, so China's government was set as the ‘subjectivity’ point in this study. When extracting the policy elements, the subject of the ‘policy stands (values)’ that depends on the dominant views is also the government; similarly, the subject of the ‘goal’ derived from the ‘policy stands (values)’ is the government as well.

This study deconstructed the SWRM policy as follows.

The specific goal of the three red lines in the SWRM policy is to strive to control the total water consumption in China within 700 billion cubic meters by 2030. Water efficiency should reach or approach the world's advanced level. According to the goal, the following indicators were selected: (a) the total annual water consumption and the total groundwater supply were selected to measure the total water consumption control system; (b) the water consumption per 10,000 yuan GDP and the water consumption per 10,000 yuan industrial added value were selected to measure the water efficiency control system.

Existing research has summarized the factors affecting water consumption efficiency as natural endowment, economic growth, industrial structure, water supply and water consumption structure, and technical development (Deng et al., 2016; Song et al., 2018; Zhou et al., 2020; Liang et al., 2021; Tang et al., 2021). In combination with relevant literature and the three red lines and four systems of the SWRM policy, relevant indicators were selected to measure water efficiency. The total amount of industrial water consumption and the total amount of agricultural water consumption were selected to measure the total water consumption control system. The amount of investment in water-saving measures in cities and counties was selected to measure the water consumption efficiency control system. Strengthening the regulation and treatment of urban sewage is conducive to the rational utilization of water resources and the improvement of water consumption efficiency. Therefore, the urban sewage discharge and urban sewage treatment rates were selected to analyze the water function area pollution limitation system. And these finally could analyze the impact of sewage treatment rate and discharge on the changes in water consumption efficiency.

In summary, the following 11 indicators were selected to analyze the impact of China's implementation of the SWRM policy on water consumption efficiency (Table 1).

The data are mainly from China Water Resources Statistical Yearbook, Water Resources Bulletin, China Urban Construction Statistical Yearbook, China Social Statistics Yearbook, China Urban and Rural Construction Statistical Yearbook, China Agricultural Machinery Industry Yearbook, and China Rural Statistics Yearbook over the years.

This section analyzes the SWRM policy's impact on water consumption efficiency by measuring changes in indicators since the implementation of the SMWR in 2011 and provides empirical evidence to support the adequacy analysis in Section 3.3.

The impact on water consumption efficiency since implementing the SWRM policy was compared and assessed based on changes in the relevant indicators in 2020 compared to 2011 (see Table 2). The total annual water consumption, total groundwater supply, total industrial water consumption, total agricultural water consumption, water consumption per 10,000 yuan GDP, and water consumption per 10,000 yuan of industrial value added show negative changes, whereas the investment in urban water-saving measures in urban cities and counties, urban sewage discharge, and urban sewage treatment rates show positive changes. This indicates that the total water consumption in China has been effectively controlled since 2011; therefore, the water consumption efficiency has been continuously improved. The construction of a water-saving society and the sustainable development of the economy and society have been effectively promoted as well.

Changes in the data supported the adequacy and necessity of analysis between policy stands, goals, strategies, and results as shown in Section 3.3. The degree of relevance was determined by whether the data in 2020 improved compared to the data in 2011. An improvement in the indicator is considered a ‘ + ,’ and an improvement of more than 40% is considered a ‘ + +’ (see Table 3).

Consistency analysis in the S-CAD method refers to logical analysis, which aims to examine the logical relationship between the policy stands and the goal, strategy, and result of the policy; more specifically, whether the goal represents the policy stand, whether the strategy can achieve the goal, and whether the result reflects the strategy.

The goals logically related to PS1 (promoting the rational development and consumption of water resources, conservation, and protection, and finally the construction of ecological civilization) are G1, G2, and G3. In carrying out water resources management, a red line for water resources development and consumption control is established. China's total amount of water used will be less than 700 billion m³ by 2030, which can effectively improve the level of development and utilization of water resources in China and enable the conservation and protection of water resources. China must establish a red line for water consumption efficiency control, so that by 2030 water consumption efficiency will reach or be close to reaching the world's advanced level, and the water consumption per 10,000 yuan of industrial value added will be reduced to less than 40 m³. The effective consumption coefficient of irrigation water in agricultural fields will also increase to more than 0.6, which will enable the rational and practical development and consumption of China's water resources and improve China's overall water consumption efficiency. This will enable China's water resources to be effectively protected, further promote the construction of China's ecological civilization, and realize sustainable development.

The goals that are logically linked to PS2 (achieving sustainable economic and social development and promoting high-quality green development of the economy and society) are G1 and G2. Establishing a red line for water resources development and consumption control in Chinese society will strictly control the total amount of water intake in river basins and regions and can also ensure strict management and protection measures for groundwater, control agricultural and industrial water consumption, promote the transformation of economic growth, and further promote the sustainable development of China's economy and society. By establishing a red line for water consumption efficiency control, the target set can be achieved by strengthening water conservation management and improving relevant water conservation technologies, which can effectively improve China's overall water consumption efficiency and promote the high-quality green development of China's economy and society.

There is a logical link between G1 (establishing a red line for water resources development and consumption control) and S1 and S4. The establishment of the red line of water resources development and use control must create relevant policies and systems to guarantee, for example, the establishment of the total water consumption control system, which can effectively guarantee the establishment of this red line. The total water consumption control system includes the following six specific measures: (a) strict planning management and water resources demonstration; (b) strict control of the total amount of water intake in the basin and the region; (c) strict implementation of the water intake permit; (d) strictly paid use of water resources; (e) strict management and protection of groundwater; and (f) strengthening the unified regulation of water resources. The implementation of these specific measures can guarantee the establishment of this red line in multiple dimensions. In addition, the establishment of water resources management responsibility and an assessment system can effectively control China's total amount of water consumption, thus ensuring the establishment of this red line.

The strategies logically linked to G2 (establishing a red line for water consumption efficiency control) are S2 and S4. The water consumption efficiency control system mainly includes comprehensively strengthening water conservation management, strengthening water quota management, and accelerating the promotion of water conservation technology transformation. By establishing relevant water consumption efficiency control systems, China can reasonably and effectively control water consumption efficiency and guarantee the establishment of a red line for water consumption efficiency control. Then, establishing water resources management responsibility and an assessment system – including the establishment of relevant management, assessment, and supervision mechanisms – can further promote the establishment of the water consumption efficiency control red line in China and achieve the established targets.

The strategies that are logically related to G3 (establishing the red line for pollution limitation in water function areas) are S3 and S4. The establishment of a water function area pollution limitation system can ensure the establishment of the red line for pollution limitation in water function areas. Therefore, the total amount of major pollutants in rivers and lakes can be controlled, and the water quality standard rate in the water function area can be continuously improved. At the same time, the establishment of water resources management responsibility and an assessment system through improving and perfecting the water resources management system; establishing and improving the water resources management responsibility, assessment system, and the corresponding monitoring system; and strengthening the supervision of urban sewage discharge and urban sewage discharge rates can effectively control the indicators related to ‘limiting pollution reception’ and ensure the establishment of the red line for limiting pollution reception in China.

The results that are logically linked to S1 (total water consumption control system) are R1 and R3. The establishment of the total water consumption control system has resulted in the implementation of a series of strict water abstraction measures. For example, the strict implementation of relevant measures such as water intake permits and the paid use of water resources can solve the complex water resource problems in China and improve China's overall water consumption efficiency. At the same time, the total water consumption control system includes the management and protection of groundwater and the strengthening of the unified dispatch of water resources, which has led to the continued strengthening of China's water resources protection.

The results that are logically linked to S2 (water consumption efficiency control system) are R1 and R4. The establishment of the water consumption efficiency control system has led to the adoption of measures to improve the overall water efficiency of our society, such as the comprehensive strengthening of water conservation management, the reinforcement of water quota management and other measures, and the increase in investment in water conservation technology. These measures have led to significant results in the management of our water resources, helped solve the problems associated with water resources, and effectively improved the efficiency of water consumption in China.

The results logically related to S3 (water function area pollution limitation system) are R1, R2, R3, and R4. The establishment of the system of limiting pollution reception in water function areas in China has proposed strict supervision and the management of water function areas, strengthening the protection of drinking water sources and promoting the protection and restoration of water ecosystems. By strengthening the reasonable and effective supervision of water resources, the protection of water resources in China has been continuously strengthened, and the complex problems of water resources and the water environment in China have been solved and improved, which proves that the management of water resources in China has achieved remarkable results.

The results logically related to S4 (water resources management responsibility and assessment system) are R1, R2, and R4. China has established and improved the responsibility and assessment system of water resources management and the corresponding monitoring system, the water resources management and investment system and mechanism, the government regulations and social supervision mechanism, and a series of water resources management responsibilities and assessment systems. Through these strategies, the supervision of water resources has been strengthened, the relevant management work has been implemented, and the complex water resources and water environment problems in China have been effectively solved.

An adequacy analysis of the S-CAD method focused on the practical efficiency of policy development and implementation. Based on the adequacy analysis, the adequacy between the policy stand, goal, strategy, and result of the SWRM policy was analyzed. Every policy should mobilize resources including material resources, human resources, political resources, information resources, and time resources (Mergoni & De Witte, 2022). The efficiency analysis aimed to avoid waste, repetition, and misuse (Ouyang et al., 2022). The analysis of practical efficiency aimed to analyze whether the means, tools, and resources used in the policy are overused or insufficient, that is, to analyze the issue of the consistency of resource allocation. The practical efficiency analysis was followed by the logical analysis, which centered on efficiency.

The achievement of PS1 (promoting the rational development, use, conservation, and protection of water resources, and finally the construction of ecological civilization) requires the establishment of three ‘red lines’: G1 (establishing a red line for water resources development and consumption control), G2 (establishing a red line for water consumption efficiency control), and G3 (establishing a red line for pollution limitation in water function areas). The establishment of G1, G2, and G3 through the strict control of the total amount of water abstraction in basins and regions, the strict management and protection of groundwater, the comprehensive strengthening of water conservation management, and the establishment of a sound responsibility and assessment system for water resources management and a corresponding monitoring system are the basis for promoting the rational development and use of water resources and their conservation and protection, effectively promoting the construction of China's ecological civilization. As such, it is of obvious relevance. Therefore, G1, G2, and G3 are necessary ways to achieve PS1, and the achievement of a position cannot be separated from the support of the goal.

PS2 (achieving sustainable economic and social development and promoting high-quality green development of the economy and society) requires G1 (establishing a red line for water resources development and consumption control) to strengthen the management and protection of groundwater and reduce groundwater extraction and mining, which can further promote sustainable economic and social development in China. PS2 needs G2 (establishing a red line for water consumption efficiency control) to increase investments in water conservation technologies, strengthen water conservation management and related water conservation technologies, and improve water extraction methods, which can effectively improve China's overall water efficiency and promote high-quality green development in China. Thus, only G1 and G3 are necessary to achieve PS2. The lack of either of the two goals in G1 and G2 will not contribute to achieving the PS2 policy position. Therefore, there is an apparent sufficiency.

The establishment of G1 (establishing a red line for water resources development and consumption control) will be achieved through the establishment of S1 (total water consumption control system) and S4 (water resources management responsibility and assessment system). The absence of either S1 or S4 will result in this goal not being achieved. The establishment of S1 can effectively control the water intake and consumption in the basin and region by taking relevant specific measures, such as strictly implementing the water intake permit and strictly enforcing the paid use of water resources, so as to meet the requirement set by G1 The establishment of S4, through the adoption of strategies such as the establishment of a sound water resources management responsibility and assessment system and a corresponding monitoring system, can strengthen the supervision and management of the consumption of water resources in China, thus achieving the requirements set out in G1. This will enable us to achieve the requirements set out in objective G1. So, the establishment of S1 and S4 is beneficial for promoting the achievement of G1.

The goal of G2 (establishing a red line for water consumption efficiency control) can only be achieved through the establishment of S2 (water consumption efficiency control system) and S4 (water resources management responsibility and assessment system). Deleting either S2 or S4 will not achieve the goal of G2. S2 increases investment in water-saving technology, takes relevant measures such as comprehensively strengthening water conservation management, strengthening water quota management, and accelerating water-saving technology transformation, and combines S4's corresponding water resources supervision and management measures to achieve the goal of G2. So, the establishment of S2 and S4 is beneficial for promoting the achievement of G2.

For goal G3 (establishing a red line for pollution limitation in water function areas), the establishment of S3 (water function area pollution limitation system) and S4 (water resources management responsibility and assessment system) is needed to achieve this target. Deleting either S3 or S4 will not make the target of G3 achievable. Under the corresponding strict water resources supervision and management in S4, S3 can achieve the requirements set out in G3 through the strict supervision and management of water function zones, strengthen the protection of drinking water sources, and promote the protection and restoration of water ecosystems. Thus, the establishment of S3 is beneficial for promoting the achievement of G3.

To achieve the desired outcome of R1 (solving China's complex water resources and water environment problems) and improve water consumption efficiency, four specific strategies including S1 (total water consumption control system), S2 (water consumption efficiency control system), S3 (water function area pollution limitation system), and S4 (water resources management responsibility and assessment system) are needed to promote and facilitate the process. The result of R1 cannot be achieved without any of these strategies. At the same time, by controlling the total amount of water used, improving the efficiency of water use, strictly supervising and managing water function zones, and establishing a sound water resources management responsibility and assessment system and a corresponding monitoring system, the complex water resources and water problems in China can be solved. Furthermore, the overall efficiency of water consumption in China can be improved. Therefore, the implementation of S1, S2, and S3 is beneficial for achieving the desired outcome of R1.

Establishing S3 (water function area pollution limitation system) and S4 (water resources management responsibility and assessment system) will facilitate the achievement of R2, thus strengthening water resources regulation. Water resources regulation will be strengthened through the strict monitoring of water function zones and the strict monitoring of water resources. Thus, the implementation of S3 and S4 is beneficial for achieving the desired outcome of R2.

To achieve the desired result of R3 (continuously enhancing water resources protection), two specific instruments are needed: S1 (total water consumption control system) and S3 (water function area pollution limitation system). On the one hand, strict groundwater management and strengthened drinking water source protection can reduce the excavation and exploitation of groundwater and protect groundwater resources and the ecological environment. On the other hand, the safety of drinking water sources has been guaranteed. So, the implementation of S1 and S3 is beneficial for achieving the desired outcome of R3.

Achieving R4 (water resources management achieves significant results) requires the establishment and promotion of S2 (water consumption efficiency control system), S3 (water function area pollution limitation system), and S4 (water resources management responsibility and assessment system). The absence of any one specific strategy will not contribute to the achievement of the desired outcome of R4. The five specific measures in S4 are ‘establish a responsibility and assessment system for water resources management; improve the water resources monitoring system; improve the water resources management system; improve the input mechanism for water resources management; and improve policies, regulations and social supervision mechanisms.’ These five specific measures promote related work in many ways across various dimensions to achieve significant results, reflecting the importance that our government and relevant departments attach to water resources management. Therefore, the implementation of S2, S3, and S4 is beneficial for achieving the desired outcome of R4.

Dependency analysis includes recognition and implementation. This study started from the ‘subjectivity’ point based on consistency and adequacy analysis. Based on the above analysis of policy stands, goals, strategies, and results, we drew the conclusion that the most critical executors of the SWRM policy are central and local governments, and the most critical affected objects of the SWRM policy are enterprises and the public. The policy's success depends on the awareness of the implementing agent and the support and supply of the policy by the implementing agent.

The will of governments and administrative authorities at all levels to implement the policy is to promote the rational exploitation and conservation of water resources through the implementation of the SWRM policy to promote the construction of ecological civilization and achieve sustainable development and high-quality development of the economy and society. Through the implementation of the ‘three red lines’ and ‘four systems,’ the relevant governments at all levels can solve the complex water resources and water environment problems, reasonably and effectively strengthen the supervision of water resources, and continuously enhance the protection of water resources, which ultimately show that the management of water resources in China is possible. Now, remarkable achievements have been made in water resources management.

The SWRM policy is closely related to people's lives, and the government has also carried out extensive publicity. As a result, in terms of dependency, the promotion of the SWRM policy is strongly supported by society (Cheng et al., 2022b). The government must do an excellent job in the implementation, supervision, and guidance of this system and effectively publicize the SWRM policy to the whole society so that the SWRM policy can be widely recognized and successfully implemented in China.

The SWRM policy is a critical water policy that aims to achieve sustainable water development and promote water governance. It was necessary and important to conduct a timely evaluation of the SWRM policy. Based on the systematic summary of the SWRM policy documents, this study used the S-CAD method to evaluate the SWRM policy's implementation effect from the perspective of consistency, adequacy, and dependency. This study indicates that the SWRM policy has a clear logic, policy goals, and orderly strategies, and there is no contradiction in the policy's elements.

On the whole, the SWRM policy can achieve the expected policy effect and promote the rational development and utilization of water resources and water governance. Since the issue of the SWRM policy first emerged, governments have paid great attention to the SWRM policy's implementation, which has effectively promoted water resources management and supported the reasonable use of water resources. The SWRM policy has a high practical efficiency, water use efficiency has been effectively improved, water supply capacity has been greatly increased, and water ecological protection effect is remarkable. In addition, the goal can reflect the policy's position in the government. In the process of implementation, the policy's goal can be fully realized through policy strategies. Furthermore, local governments have vigorously publicized and actively implemented the SWRM policy, which has facilitated the management of water resources and enabled the objectives and expected results of the policy to be achieved.

However, the SWRM policy needs improvement as a new policy. China's water problems are still serious, and there is a need to establish collaborative governance for long-term efforts under the framework of the SDGs. The Chinese government should continue to implement and improve the SWRM policy, strengthen water resources supervision, enhance water resources protection, and further improve society's overall water consumption efficiency.

There are some limitations in this study. In the S-CAD method, only the policy stands, goals, strategies, and results of the SWRM policy were analyzed logically and sufficiently, without considering the possible constraining effects of the SWRM policy on local socio-economic and production aspects. Using the S-CAD method alone to analyze and evaluate the SWRM policy may have been somewhat one-sided. Besides, although the S-CAD evaluation method has wide adaptability to policy evaluation, it is still a qualitative policy evaluation method. Therefore, a more comprehensive and integrated assessment of the various impacts must be carried out in conjunction with other models in subsequent studies.

The research is sponsored by the grants of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 42271185) and the Major Program of Philosophy and Social Science of Chinese Ministry of Education (No. 21JZD034).

All relevant data are included in the paper or its Supplementary Information.

The authors declare there is no conflict.