A socio-ecological evaluation of the conservation efforts in the Nevado de Toluca protected area, Mexico: Governmental performance and local community perception from a rural context

Protected areas (PAs) have become the main policy instrument for the conservation of biodiversity worldwide (Naidoo et al., 2019; Pearce et al., 2022; Zhang et al., 2022). A distinguishable feature of PAs in Latin America is that they are largely inhabited by indigenous and rural communities, which makes social processes a determining element for conservation (Schleicher et al., 2017; Gómez-Ruiz et al., 2022). However, these communities are generally excluded from management plans and/or government conservation strategies and are perceived as drivers of negative change (Lebreton & Imbernon, 2017). Consequently, the use of natural resources by such communities tends to be different from government actions (Bennett, 2016). The main cause of this disparity is the government's incapacity to reconcile local interests with conservation, and oftentimes the results are completely unexpected due to a lack of local participation (Depraz et al., 2017). Other factors that can contribute to the failure of PA functioning include the existence of different local perceptions about natural resources that are not considered when creating management plans for the area, the need to integrate scientific and local knowledge, the dissociated participation of key actors in the management and maintenance of the area, the importance of generating economic incentives from the sustainable management, and the existence of clear regulations regarding the operation of the area that facilitate compliance (Andrade & Rhodes, 2012; Alonso-Yañez et al., 2022). Many conflicts are related to the protection and reasonable use of resources given that numerous PAs are located in remote areas where the livelihoods of the local population depend largely on natural resources (Zhang et al., 2022).

Currently, international environmental policy seeks to privilege the inclusion and participation of multiple actors in decision-making as an instrument to reinforce the acceptance of a decision and, at the same time, to strengthen knowledge about its implementation (Naidoo et al., 2019; Pearce et al., 2022). In Mexico, the inclusion of local communities in the decision-making process was evident in the 1990s, when the Global Environment Facility conditioned the financial support for a group of PAs to the establishment of institutionalized spaces for participation. However, this process faces multiple challenges related to the disparity of interests over natural resources. In practical terms, applying the participation concept can range from a simple consultation to the promotion of democratic processes through the co-design of projects, their execution, and follow-up (Durand et al., 2014; Ortega-Álvarez et al., 2022). In developing countries, the objective of conservation with socioeconomic development has been sought out, but the expectation has been very different from the implementation and the results, with multiple problems failing to fully comply with any of the objectives (Almeida-Leñero et al., 2017). Therefore, the implementation of conservation tools does not necessarily imply success in socio-ecological terms, since many of these processes are not achieved through integrative strategies. From the perspective of adaptive management, planning must be made for both implementation and monitoring as part of a constantly rotating project cycle, not as separate entities (Bennett, 2016).

Several factors influence the behavior and attitudes toward conservation that people exhibit in various contexts ranging from views on land and diversity to conceptual institutional, legal, and political frameworks (Ortega-Álvarez et al., 2022). For example, external factors are inherent to social, cultural, economic, and institutional aspects, while internal factors include motivations, environmental knowledge and awareness, attitudes and values, and environmental and cultural history, among others (Pearce et al., 2022).

The functioning of PAs depends to a great extent on the personal conduct of the individuals that serve as key actors in their maintenance. The norms and individual awareness of actions toward the environment are the product of the interaction of individuals with nature and reflect different degrees of responsibility and participation in conservation instruments (Pearce et al., 2022) However, for this to be reflected it is necessary that the local community is involved in the diagnosis, implementation, and monitoring process, ensuring that local knowledge and management perspectives are taken into account. This protects against the governance of the areas becoming fragmented between institutions and the local population, which often occurs (Cotler et al., 2022; Gómez-Ruiz et al., 2022).

The designation of appropriate institutions for managing PAs and the surrounding lands within complex socio-ecological landscapes is rare, especially in developing countries (Pearce et al., 2022). This aspect is key not only because ecosystem processes occur at different spatial-temporal scales from socioeconomic processes, but also because each case is unique given that the interactions between local communities and their ecosystems are the product of many factors (mentioned above) that shape the complex daily interactions (Geldmann et al., 2019).

In Mexico, most of the PAs were created on preexisting territories, which constituted socially appropriate spaces; therefore, the protection of nature has not been as strict as the conservationist model of the 19th century under which the first PA in the world was created in Yellowstone, USA. This is in part because initially PAs were proposed as elements of social justice and even national pride that would attract tourism (Toscana & Granados, 2015). The first official antecedent of a PA in Mexico dates back to 1876, with the creation of the Desierto de los Leones National Park. This area was expropriated for public utility, with the purpose of protecting the springs that supply water to Mexico City, directing the creation of these areas under a utilitarian concept that would henceforth frame the importance of resources like water in supporting the development of large cities (Melo Gallegos, 2002). Currently, PAs are created and function under the use of political and technical criteria with a vertical vision in which the government has the power over resource management and rarely takes into account the role played by communities living near or within the PAs (Santana-Medina et al., 2013). This creates a scheme of minimal local participation, both in the design and implementation phases, as well as in monitoring and evaluation (Almeida-Leñero et al., 2017), that tends to leave out vulnerable and/or minority groups and generally ignore the socioeconomic, political, and cultural context that underlies the creation of PAs (Bennett, 2016). Forested areas are home to the poorest populations that have minimal productive activities available to them given a deficit of public policies that promote their development (Rescala-Pérez, 2009). Some authors argue that the effectiveness of PAs can put local development at risk, limiting autonomy over natural resources in the midst of low levels of economic development (Geldmann et al., 2019). Therefore, PAs are often considered elements that erode the legitimate rights to the land and natural resources (Schleicher et al., 2017; Geldmann et al., 2019). An example of this is the Nevado de Toluca PA, which was declared a National Park in 1936 given the ecological importance of the forested area that captures and filters the water that supplies the Lerma and Balsas basins, as well as Mexico City. The extractive use of wildlife and disorderly forest management led to the modification of its legal status in 2013 to a Protected Area of Flora and Fauna of Nevado de Toluca (APFFNT, acronym in Spanish), which opened the possibility for communities to participate in sustainable productive and economic projects. However, the scant political will to inform, order, and improve the living conditions of the population reflects an intense overexploitation of forest and hydrological resources in the area. The loss of forest cover increased after this change in the Nevado de Toluca's protection status, from 39.7 ha/year between 2001 and 2013 to 106.0 ha/year between 2014 and 2019 (Nava et al., 2013; González-Fernández et al., 2022).

PAs continue to be one of the dominant strategies for safeguarding the diversity of the planet and represent a pioneering instrument in the international agenda (Naidoo et al., 2019).

However, in terms of conservation success, a recent study showed that human pressures inside PAs have increased particularly in tropical areas, and noted that establishing a large number of PAs without ensuring appropriate mechanisms and resources to stem human pressure can lead to overall negative treatment effects (Geldmann et al., 2019).

Despite the multiple evaluations on PA functioning, assessing the effects of human interactions with the conservation instruments and the intrinsic characteristics of each area subject to protection remains a challenge (Geldmann et al., 2019). As such, the objective of this manuscript is to present a strategy to evaluate the functioning of government conservation strategies in PA at the socio-ecological level, adapted to rural contexts of marginalization, low levels of local participation, and high levels of ecosystems degradation. We use the Nevado de Toluca Protected Area (APFFNT), Mexico, as a case study.

The evaluated communities are located within different ecological classification statuses (CONANP, 2016). Agua Blanca and La Dilatada Sur are in the Sustainable Use of Natural Resources subzone, which includes areas of dense pine and oyamel forests, but also a large housing development in La Dilatada. The communities of Baldío Amarillo and San Juan Tepehuizco are part of the Sustainable Use of Ecosystems, with lands used for agricultural and livestock activities. Finally, Las Raíces community falls within the Human Settlements subzone, which includes areas where a substantial modification of the ecosystems has been carried out due to the development of human settlements. In all ecological subzones, contamination of the forest and water, the use of pesticides, and the refilling, drying, or modification of water bodies are prohibited (CONANP, 2016).

In economic terms, areas dedicated to agricultural activities represent 17% of the APFFNT (9,083 ha). The most important crops are maize (4,480 production units), potato (952 production units), and foraged oats (376 production units). Regarding livestock, sheep are registered in 676 production units and cattle in 191 production units (CONANP, 2016). Tourism in the PA stems from the snowfall and scenic beauty of the forests, streams, and crater lakes, with a peak in visitors between December and March when snowfall is present (on average 8,000 people per month) (Olvera & Pichardo, 2017).

The protocol is divided into four general stages that aim to integrate the historical, social, and ecological information of the site to carry out a comprehensive evaluation of public policy. The first stage includes the diagnosis of the socio-ecological problem; the second involves a conservation instrument assessment; and the third proposes an intervention with a socio-ecological approach. Descriptions of the elements used in each of the proposed levels are summarized in Table 1.

In this stage, the research problem was characterized through a historical, social, and institutional analysis in relation to the use, management, and ecological degradation of water bodies and the recategorization strategy of the APFFNT. We carried out a literature review of academic manuscripts, which allowed us to characterize the creation of the protected natural area, the social problems surrounding its creation and maintenance, and the use of water. At this point in the evaluation, we aimed to characterize the problems detected in the literature in terms of natural resource governance and the interaction of government entities with local residents to achieve the intended functioning of the area.

In this phase, we include a historical, social, and ecological perspective to identify the problems associated with the creation of the PA from the three most influential perspectives. The historical perspective, including a synthesis or ‘problem memory,’ was generated from the review of academic and governmental documents (CONANP, 2016), from which a state of knowledge was generated concerning the socio-ecological problems that promoted the creation and subsequent recategorization of the PA in 2013. We investigated the social, economic, and political processes that have influenced the generation of conflicts associated with water resources at local and regional scales. The social perspective includes an assessment of the local perception regarding ecological problems within the PA and relations (communication, institutional support) with government institutions for the management and use of resources within the PA. We carried out four participatory workshops in 2017 in the Dilatada Sur and Agua Blanca communities. These workshops were convened by requesting and obtaining approval from local authorities, followed by a community call through informative posters in common spaces. The following topics were addressed during two sessions: Workshop 1: Cross-cutting relationships between key social actors and public management policies; and Workshop 2: Management of socio-ecosystems and defining environmental quality indicators. The workshops were developed through a modification of the Philips 6/6 format, in which participants are divided into subgroups of approximately 10 people and asked to reach agreements on the following points: 1. The five most important changes in the environment over the last 5 years; 2. the most important change for the subsistence of the family in environmental terms; and 3. the environmental factors that they would like to monitor over time. Participants were informed about the current conservation status in the PA and the preliminary results of the ecological quality evaluation carried out in the rivers near the visited communities (see Characterization of the socio-ecosystem section).

To establish a baseline of the ecological perspective, we used the information from the previous justifying study (CONANP, 2016) to report the state of aquatic ecosystems within the PA. Decisions regarding the PA are made based on this document that synthesizes the work of several academic experts in the area.

Finally, the institutional perspective was investigated through an in-depth review of the Management Program for the PA (CONANP, 2016). This is the only official document available to consult the government's proposal of short-, medium-, and long-term actions.

The analytical framework of ‘Driving Force-Pressure, State, Impact, Response’ was used to establish the socio-ecological complexity within the study area. This framework seeks to identify the driving forces that motivate activities causing pressures on ecosystems. Such pressures are expressed in modifications to the ecological conditions of the region. Responses to eliminate, minimize, control, or avoid impacts come from the locals and the government through the implementation of public policies that seek the sustainable management of resources.

Driving force indicators: this indicator includes all factors of political origin that regulate decision-making surrounding the management and use of the territory and ecosystems. This indicator is mentioned but was not developed (due to financial and timing limitations); however, it is an important part of the proposed evaluation scheme and should be included in future research.

Pressure indicators: two types of information sources were incorporated into this indicator. Firstly, the activities allowed and prohibited within the different areas of the PA were described according to the management plan (CONANP, 2016). Secondly, semi-structured interviews were carried out between 2016 and 2017 with residents at least 15 years old in the rural communities. The sample size was calculated based on the indicator of inhabited private dwellings (IPD) obtained from CONANP (2016) and SEDESOL (2013), using a normal distribution and cluster sampling with a confidence of 95%. In each locality, 20% of the total IPD was covered, resulting in a total of 116 surveys. The structure of the survey aimed to identify the main domestic and economic activities that take place in the territory, including those that potentially affect the ecological conditions of streams, such as a lack of drainage, alterations to channels via damming, in situ water diversions, breeding of non-stabled animals, and so on.

Status indicators: these indicators seek to identify the current conservation state of water ecosystems in Agua Blanca, Las Raíces, and San Mateo Almomoloa. Three sampling collections were carried out (four for Agua Blanca) and aimed to represent different climatic conditions: rainy (November 2016), cold dry (February 2017), and hot dry (March and May 2017). The conservation status of the riparian zones was evaluated according to the Hydromorphological Quality Index (HYQI, Ortíz 2017), while the water quality evaluation of physical and chemical parameters followed the national normative (NOM-SSA1-2012). The macroalgae environmental quality index (MEQI Carmona-Jiménez et al., 2022) and benthic macroinvertebrates environmental quality index (BEMEQI, Caro-Borrero et al., In Press) were employed to recognize biological indicators. To characterize the ecosystem functionality and the provision of water ecosystem services, primary productivity (PP), nutrient cycling through the incorporation of organic matter into the aquatic system (NC-MIBS), and bank stability (BS) were evaluated. Additionally, morpho-functional traits of algal and benthic macroinvertebrate communities were assessed following the proposal of Caro-Borrero & Carmona-Jiménez (2019). A detailed description of the methods can be found in Annex 1 of the Supplementary Material.

Response indicators: an analysis of the Management Program was carried out to assess response indicators. This analysis focused on the identification of objectives, activities, and actions proposed to address the ecological problem of water resource degradation in the region.

This analysis was based on the four stages of the public policy cycle proposed by Palumbo (1987) and Bobadilla et al. (2013), which consider aspects such as the perception of the local population, the ecological state of the ecosystems, and the degree of implementation of the activities proposed in the planning instruments.

Analysis of the problem: identification and definition. This stage is based on the scheme proposed by Curcio (2007) that allows identifying the conceptual coherence of public policy. We analyzed the conceptual concordance between the objectives and strategies of the Management Program seeking to solve the problems of ecological degradation in the area. This stage is based on the logic that many policies are assumed to be correct for solving a problem that perhaps was not correctly identified (Curcio, 2007; Bobadilla et al., 2013).

Four scenarios are possible in this analysis (Curcio, 2007): zero indicates that there is a problem that is well defined and there is a relevant policy that helps resolve it; scenario one occurs when the problem is well defined, but there is no policy or program that addresses it; scenario two occurs when a problem exists, but it is not properly defined or known and no policy exists; finally, scenario three indicates that there are policies that seek to remedy a problem, but it is not well defined, causing the problem to prevail because the strategies are not adequate to remedy it.

Involvement and acceptance: this stage seeks to evaluate the instrument's degree of acceptance through the level of local participation in the activities proposed by the government, as well as the level of respect for compliance and understanding of the operational standards. The workshop strategy was employed to assess the collective opinion of the communities and their involvement as a group. The issue of cross-cutting relationships with governmental institutions was addressed, with the aim of identifying residents' perceptions regarding the conservation instrument and the level of interaction with these institutions.

Implementation: the annual operating program (POA), a planning instrument that details the objectives and goals to be achieved in an annual period, was reviewed for the period 2013–2020.

Impact: this evaluation seeks to identify the impact that the policy instrument has had on local conditions and livelihoods, as well as the perception that they have an impact on water resources, through semi-structured surveys.

Socio-ecological approach: this proposal aims to promote the participation of the local people in decision-making concerning the sustainable use of water resources. A participatory monitoring plan was generated through workshops with the Agua Blanca and Las Raíces communities. In these workshops, the community was consulted about the key elements to monitor in the ecosystem. This strategy aimed to generate a local consensus around the design of monitoring strategies, where different groups such as school children, women water users, and participants in the payment program for hydrological environmental services (women and men), could participate. The academic team designed aquatic monitoring kits (included a manual) with the objective of providing a tool to the population for evaluating the ecological quality of rivers in a relatively simple way and with prior training by the academic staff. We presented a manual for collecting and interpreting the presence or absence of macroinvertebrates and algae as biological indicators. The workshops were held on the riverbanks where theoretical and practical information on monitoring and interpreting the results were explained.

Historical perspective: two processes have shaped the rules governing the use of the territory and natural resources within the APFFNT. The first was the agrarian distribution, in which a large part of the land was distributed to ejidos and agrarian communities. The second was the designation of the Nevado de Toluca as a National Park in 1936 and its recent recategorization as a Flora and Fauna Protection Area in 2013. Among the justifications for this change, the government mentioned deforestation as well as a public consultation that was in favor of said change (Lebreton & Imbernon, 2017). Both arguments have been widely questioned given that many studies have shown the opposite (Mastretta Yanes et al., 2014; Héritier & Lebreton, 2017; González-Fernández et al., 2022). This new classification, in theory, allows for the regulation of economic activities carried out within the area, such as agriculture, animal husbandry, and other productive activities, which were prohibited under the National Park category (Toscana & Granados, 2015). This change provided opportunities for the local population to use natural resources but also opened the possibility for large companies to become established in the PA and carry out commercial developments that exclude the locals from the socioeconomic development scenario (Depraz et al., 2017).

Inside the PA, numerous streams and rivers flow down the mountain and supply water to the local communities inhabiting the forests below. These runoffs also contribute to the formation of two of the largest basins in Mexico: the ‘Lerma-Chapala-Santiago’ River to the northeast and the ‘Balsas’ River to the southwest (Brunett et al., 2010). Therefore, watershed management in geopolitical terms is the responsibility of different states and institutions across different levels of government. Given the water scarcity in large cities such as Toluca and Mexico City, conservation plans are implemented in the forested areas of aquifer recharge, such as the Nevado de Toluca, through a payment program for hydrological environmental services (Brunett et al., 2010). However, conservation programs and forest management are compromised by different socioeconomic activities, including commercial export-oriented floriculture, high-chemical-input potato production, mineral ore extraction, and illegal logging. The latter has grown from being sporadic and largely carried out by people living in poverty to an organized activity that illegally markets the wood (Rescala-Pérez, 2009; González-Fernández et al., 2022).

In socio-demographic terms, human communities in the region before the 1930s were made up of indigenous people from the Chichimeca, Mazahua, Matlaltzinca, Otomi, and Nahua groups, all of which have since significantly diminished in population. At that time, the main economic activity was rainfed irrigation agriculture, which depended on the quality of the land and the weather conditions. After the 1930s, there was a strong population turnover derived from agrarian reform that, through the re-distribution of land, turned non-native settlers into owners.

Currently, the Nevado de Toluca PA spans 11 municipalities in the State of Mexico, with a total territorial extension of 53,590 ha and an estimated population of 5,397 inhabitants. The forested areas are home to the poorest agrarian nuclei with minimal productive activity, in part due to the lack of public policies that promote their development (Rescala-Pérez, 2009). Population growth inside the PA puts the permanence of water resources at risk, both in quality and quantity. Water management has a strong social component that can be divided into two factors: on the one hand, the irregular use of water by organized groups with different economic interests (i.e., direct extractions from springs without permits from the National Water Commission (CONAGUA) as established by law in Mexico¹), and on the other, the history of water management that is rooted in the uses and customs of local communities. In addition to domestic use, other water uses compete with each other depending on the area of the basin. In the upper and middle parts of the basin, fish farms stand out, as well as rainfed and irrigated farms that utilize a part of the land for self-consumption and rent other parts to large bean and potato producers. In the middle and lower basins, domestic and commercial uses are most common. In the lower basin, tourism uses the water to sustain its activities. A recent study showed that the predominant economic activities continue to be agriculture and livestock; however, these activities face problems due to the lack of water availability and poor water quality (Santana-Medina et al., 2013). Water supply is influenced by demographic growth, lack of drainage systems, land use change, land degradation from intensive and industrial agriculture, and discharge from urban and agrichemical waste (Caro-Borrero et al., 2020). Currently, the goal is for local communities to organize themselves to carry out economic activities around the sustainable management of timber and non-timber forest resources. However, this objective has many limitations since it requires a solid social organization around a practice that most of the communities are unfamiliar with since they are agricultural and not forestry nuclei (Depraz et al., 2017).

Social perspective: a total of 117 people were interviewed, 84 women and 33 men, with an average age of 44 years and an average residence time of 37 years. The socioeconomic context was evaluated through the possession of land, for which 17 people reported being residents by inheritance or family ties such as marriage but without being the legal owners of the land. Four people reported owning land by verbal agreements without legal support. Eight people said they did not own land and mentioned simply being private owners of the house but not having rights to the land.

According to data from CONAPO (National Population Council), the communities interviewed are characterized as being in high (Las Raíces, La Dilatada Sur) and very high (El Baldío Amarillo, Agua Blanca, San Juan Tepehuizco, and San Mateo Almomoloa) marginalization indices. Thirteen per cent of the interviewees declared having problems accessing transportation, health care centers, education, and employment services. The two main economic activities reported were agriculture (56%) and wage labor (17%), however, agriculture is mainly for self-consumption in most cases (47%). Other mentioned activities include tourism (12%), livestock, and local market. The origin of food consumed inside the homes varied, generally comprising a mixture of sources that include their own crops, local and municipal stores (far from their homes), and in a few cases gathering food from the forest.

Through the participatory workshops, similarities in perception regarding the most important environmental changes in the conservation area were identified to be the quality of nearby water bodies, the cutting of trees, and the presence of garbage. In relation to water resources, participants stated that the continuous felling of trees along a nearby spring is related to the loss of water. The deterioration of water sources is perceived as a matter of concern, and in some cases, the locals organize to protect the springs with fences; however, this organization is not always present, and government support is scarce, as recognized by the residents of the Dilatada Sur community. In the Agua Blanca community, workshop participants were mostly women who recognized that the springs could be cleaner if community clean-up days were held. However, they noted as a drawback that the community does not take into account women's participation. A lack of water was highlighted as the most important problem, especially in Dilatada Sur, which has the least availability of water compared to other communities. Another issue raised was that springs in the upper basin require maintenance (for example, removing organic matter). Additionally, the felling of trees (legal and illegal) was recognized as an important issue that they cannot manage, since they noted that the loggers constitute organized groups that instill fear as a means of control. Workshop participants agreed on the need for governmental support to counteract deforestation, since reforestation efforts are minimal compared to the legal and illegal logging activity.

Ecological perspective: the Nevado de Toluca PA exhibits strong impacts derived from anthropogenic activities such as land use change from forestry vocations to agriculture and livestock usage. Additionally, industrial potato farming and cattle ranching have expanded in recent years to altitudes above 3,700 m. a. s. l. The extraction of wood, firewood, and non-timber forest products in the mid and high foothill areas have increasingly visible impacts, coupled with the action of meteorological phenomena such as strong winds and frost. Additionally, the presence of forest pests and the occurrence of fires in the area have contributed to the modification of native vegetation. Given the biological diversity and configuration of the landscape, the PA provides several ecosystem services, such as the capture of greenhouse gases, climate regulation, water capture, and habitat for flora and fauna. This area is considered one of the main sources of water for the Mexico City megalopolis. The provision of water, both from underground and surface sources, has been essential to the socioeconomic development of the central region of the State of Mexico. According to the National Water Commission, in the year 2000, there was an inflow of groundwater from the Nevado de Toluca of 94 millions of cubic meters (CONAGUA, 2020). In terms of water provision, the Nevado de Toluca provides 38% of the water consumed in the City of Toluca and 14% in Mexico City, so its importance in terms of ecosystem services is very tangible for cities and their inhabitants (Depraz et al., 2017).

The main environmental problem facing the Nevado is deforestation, with between 11 and 29% of coverage loss since 2015 and a reported 156 ha/year forest loss from 1972 to 2000 (CONANP, 2016); however, other studies maintain that logging during this same period was 8.2 ha/year (Toscana & Granados, 2015; González-Fernández et al., 2022). Associated with this problem is soil erosion and the opportunity to urbanize deforested areas, but some authors maintain that the encroachment of human settlements occurred before 1972 and that the associated pressure on ecosystems by local communities had since stabilized (Depraz et al., 2017). The second important problem is fires, both man-made and of natural origin. These affect the lower stratum of the forest composition and limit the natural renewal of trees. In this sense, the greatest anthropic pressure on forests can be summarized as related to external activities rather than local communities (González-Fernández et al., 2022).

Regarding the rivers, torrential runoff during the rainy months discharges tons of sediment, a product of erosion. These include agrochemical residues and materials from mines located both within and outside the PA. Such waterways often flow through towns where they are used as gray water drainage. Pollution problems have also been associated with garbage bags that are carried downstream during the rainy season. Many houses within the PA do not have a drainage system, and in many cases, access to drinking water.

Institutional perspective: within the PA, environmental problems related to water resources are perceived by the federal government in two ways: (1) the scarcity of water to supply local and regional communities, exacerbated by the overexploitation of groundwater, deforestation, and land use change, which has resulted in a decrease in the piezometric level, reduced flow in rivers, and the loss of springs (Olvera & Pichardo, 2017); and (2) the decrease in the quality of surface and underground water due to livestock activities, tourism, and aquaculture (CONANP, 2016).

In response to these problems, the government started implementing in 2008 the hydrological payment for the environmental services program that has been widely adopted (Muñoz-Piña et al., 2008). Additional responses have focused on the implementation of other programs, such as the Water Factory, the Temporary Employment Program, the Program for Conservation and Sustainable Development (PROCODES), the Reforestation and Comprehensive Restoration Program for Micro-basins (PRORRIM), and the Special Program for the Restoration of micro-watersheds in Priority Zones. The Program for the Location and Characterization of springs in Mexico State was launched in 2005. This program operated through the participation of local communities in protection and restoration activities. As of 2014, a total of 10,554 springs had been characterized (GEM, 2017).

The actors involved in implementing these programs include the government at different scales, such as the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources (SEMARNAT), the National Commission of Natural Protected Areas (CONANP), the National Forestry Commission (CONAFOR), the National Water Commission (CONAGUA), the Government of the State of Mexico, as well as the owners of communal and ejido assets, universities, and the private industry sector.

Pressure indicators: among the communities studied, only Agua Blanca lies within the subzone of Sustainable Use of Natural Resources: Forest Areas. Here, most of the surfaces are dense and semi-dense pine and fir forests on slopes less than 40%, a condition that allows them to be used under sustainable use schemes. The communities of Baldio Amarillo, San Juan Tepehuizco, and La Dilatada Sur are located within the Sustainable Use of Ecosystems subzone: Agricultural Areas A for the first two, and B for the last one. In these areas, agroforestry, silvopastoral, organic agriculture, commercial forest plantations, and sustainable livestock farming are permitted, among other activities. The difference between areas A and B is that the former has isolated human settlements. The community of Las Raíces is located in the subzone of human settlements, where a substantial modification or disappearance of the original ecosystems has occurred due to the development of human settlements. Finally, the community of San Mateo Almomoloa was left outside of the buffer zone of the PA with the recategorization, even though the Monarch butterfly reserve is located within its limits. In all cases, prohibited activities include the contamination of water bodies, the extraction of materials for construction, land use change, and the expansion of existing productive activities, among others (listed in detail in Annex 2 of the Supplementary Material).

Regarding the pressure indicators identified in the field, human settlements and tourism development represent the drivers with the greatest influence on the ecological quality of streams. These activities generally lack basic services such as drainage, causing domestic wastewater to be discharged into streams (Olvera & Pichardo, 2017). Likewise, in the absence of a waste management plan, water bodies and forests are used by locals and tourists as dumps for detergents, food scraps, and solid waste (CONANP, 2016). At the same time, a large percentage of industrial agricultural activities use agrochemicals that concentrate in the soil, infiltrating and polluting the groundwater layer (Olvera & Pichardo, 2017).

Economic activities such as cattle raising contribute to the deterioration of water quality with fecal waste near water bodies. During field visits, we detected impacts related to soil compaction and degradation/removal of riparian vegetation. Reforestation programs attempt to offset these impacts, but in many cases, exotic species have been introduced, bringing additional ecological consequences.

The decrease, damming, and/or total depletion of river flows were also identified, caused by the inadequate construction, design, and operation of water supply infrastructure. Regarding the availability of potable water and access to drainage, most of the interviewees (74%) stated that they depend on nearby rivers and springs as their only source of water, while 27% use piped water. The majority of interviewees (61%) have detected a decrease in the amount of water from local sources causing effects in the domestic, agricultural, and silvopastoral activities. Interestingly, the majority (87%) also responded as not having noticed changes in the quality of the water, despite sewage being disposed of on land adjacent to their homes.

Other problems of ecosystem degradation as mentioned by locals include the loss of forest cover (90%), illegal logging (63%), and the operation of government programs that promote activities not allowed in the area.

Status indicators: in relation to the physicochemical evaluation, APFFNT springs were characterized as being at high altitudes (3,673 m. a. s. l.), with warm waters (10.2–18.8 °C), oxygenated (>5 mg/L), circumneutral pH (6.6–7.5), low ionic content (87.4–176 μS/cm), and low flow rates (0.001–0.032 m³ s⁻¹). Nitrites (NO₂⁻) had the highest average values at the Las Raíces site (0.007 mg/L), while nitrate (⁠⁠) and ammonium (NH₄) concentrations were highest at the Agua Blanca site (1.7 and 0.33 mg/L, respectively). According to Chapman (2021), the natural concentration of nitrates in surface waters rarely exceeds 0.1 mg/L, while for nitrites the established average is 0.001 mg/L and for ammonium, usually less than 0.2 mg/L. The vales for orthophosphates (PO₄) ranged between 0.93 and 1.48 mg/L, with the highest average value recorded at the Agua Blanca site (1.28 mg/L).

Considering the official Mexican standard as a reference, the concentration of nitrites (0.05 mg/L), nitrates (10 mg/L), ammonium (0.5 mg/L), and orthophosphates (5 mg/L) in the waters were below the acceptable limits proposed for human use and consumption (NOM-127-SSA1-1994), as well as the established limits for discharges into national water bodies (NOM-001-SEMARNAT-1996). The parameters with the highest variation across sites were temperature, total dissolved solids, nitrites, nitrates, discharge, and HQ (Table 2).

In the Agua Blanca stream, we detected a risk of status changes through the bioindication of macroalgae and macroinvertebrates in the sampling collections. The balance of organic matter incorporation and nutrient cycling is at risk, which is related to changes in the riparian vegetation and land use. The San Mateo locality was reported as moderate ecological quality, and the river was characterized as heterotrophic with stable riverbanks, representing a well-preserved riparian zone (Figure 3).

Impact indicators: through the workshops, similar indicators of impact were identified between communities. In Agua Blanca, the environmental changes with the greatest impact on livelihoods were associated with a decrease in water quantity and quality and the number of trees. In Las Raíces, the residents mentioned a lack of water, the felling of trees, fires, and water contamination.

Response indicators: most of the activities were proposed within a diagnostic phase (e.g., agricultural and aquacultural activities), but do not represent actions that respond to the elements of pressure detected for the creation and maintenance of the PA. For water conservation, activities were proposed for the short and medium term. Some actions were related to the regulation of water use in the aquaculture activity, regularization of concessions (e.g., to the potato industry), and the implementation of cleaning programs in the streams. A detailed description of the proposed activities and deadlines for compliance is presented in Annex 3 of the Supplementary Material.

Analysis of the problem: identification and definition: the breakdown of the problem is classified as a type III scenario, in which a lack of concordance between the problem and the proposed solutions is evident (Curcio, 2007). For example, the strategies carried out in accordance with the POA (2013–2018) include the implementation of campaigns to clean up water bodies and the development of programs to promote productive practices that minimize ecosystem impact. However, the underlying causes of the problem have not been addressed, including for example the lack of drainage, the diversion of water bodies, the reduction and elimination of riparian vegetation, and the lack of spatial planning for agricultural activities. Likewise, activities carried out within the PA, such as the overexploitation of surface and underground water, the use of agrochemicals, illegal logging, and mining, are not monitored. The conservation problems in the management plans were not conceived under an integral vision, consequently limiting the capacity for action and expected results.

Local community involvement and acceptance: through the surveys, we perceived a lack of knowledge, acceptance, and involvement of the instrument among locals. Eighty per cent of the people surveyed said they were unaware of the change in the conservation category of the PA. Likewise, all interviewees were unaware of the location of their community within the zoning established by CONANP (see Annex 2), and the majority (88%) were unaware of the permitted activities according to the Management Program. Similarly, the majority (90%) argued that they had not participated in the decision-making process regarding the change of conservation category and did not know its meaning. Only 21% of the respondents received some type of technical advice from the government. In the workshops, interviewees expressed a lack of coordination between government institutions and noted that the category of conservation is a limitation to their daily activities.

Implementation: according to the documents in the POA of CONANP, activities related to the conservation of water resources within the PA are included in the subprograms of participation, climate change and management, and sustainable use. These actions include soil and water solid waste collection campaigns, environmental education workshops, and initiatives for best-management practices of forest resources through the preparation of manuals (SGPOA-CONANP, 2013–2018).

Impact: 80% of those surveyed said that the new designation of the PA does not affect their living conditions in any way, while 14% responded that it affects them negatively, and only 4% consider it to have a positive effect. Therefore, the impact can be considered as limited. The concordance analysis between the regulation established by the instrument and the way in which domestic and productive activities are carried out showed low compliance and knowledge of the regulations.

Socio-ecological approach: in accordance with the interests of the locals and aligned with the objectives of the operational plan and local management plans, the implementation of participatory monitoring is proposed as a binding strategy between locals, government authorities, and PA management. Specifically, the key element to monitor is the water bodies adjacent to local communities through parameters associated with the quality and quantity of water. These are managed by the communities themselves to meet the needs of their daily life and maintain some of their small-scale economic livelihood activities. Through the workshops, we were able to identify and communicate with the communities three different potential groups of participation: (1) children, who through an environmental education strategy from an early age are fundamental to maintaining conservation actions in the future; (2) women, who establish an important connection between the ecosystem and the development of daily domestic and economic activities; and (3) men, whose work is associated with the Payment for Hydrological Environmental Services program, while monitoring was seen as a complementary activity.

The elements evaluated to characterize the current situation of ecosystem degradation within the PA and the government strategies to address the problem, as reflected in the management plan and annual operational plans, necessarily pay special attention to two elements: first, the performance of local communities as agents of change, and second, the social participation in the recategorization process. The Mexican government used statements from locals to justify the reclassification of the area, therefore making them important in any analysis (Lebreton & Imbernon, 2017). Both the literature and the results obtained here show that the socio-ecological problems were viewed from an outside perspective without considering the local livelihoods and the real deterioration processes that occur within the PA, such as industrial farming, clandestine logging and mining, unregulated tourism, and aquaculture (Mastretta Yanes et al., 2014; Depraz et al., 2017; Héritier & Lebreton, 2017; González-Fernández et al., 2022). Therefore, a lack of concordance between the problem and the proposed solutions is evident (Curcio, 2007). In this sense, the implementation of actions that seek to impact conservation remains in the scope of recommendations and represent palliative actions that fail to combat the problems associated with the industries, logging, and depletion of water resources, among others (Carmona-Jiménez & Caro-Borrero, 2017; Olvera & Pichardo, 2017). On the contrary, the livelihoods in the PA communities are based on primary economies; however, there is a need to diversify economic activities due to the scarcity of economic capital and the lack of opportunities to work the land (Depraz et al., 2017). Another example is related to the low development of tourism practices, despite this activity being allowed in all subzones of the PA. This low percentage may be due to factors such as weather, which limits access to the PA during the winter season, as well as the climatic seasonality that affects the presence of species such as the Monarch butterfly (San Mateo Almomoloa Community). Furthermore, most tourism providers are external companies with more infrastructure and staff than local communities (Mastretta Yanes et al., 2014; Lebreton & Imbernon, 2017). This scenario, fostered by the historical and current management of the area, is reflected in the abandonment of rural activities by men who move to cities looking for salaried work (Fierros & Ávila-Foucat, 2017). The implementation of the operational programs (POA) was insufficient, partly due to the lack of institutional capacities such as staff and budget to carry out conservation/prevention activities (Pinkus Rendón et al., 2014; Almeida-Leñero et al., 2017). Furthermore, the outlook is not promising considering that budget reductions have been significant, with 59% fewer funds available in 2022 than in 2016 (Vázquez-Pérez, 2021). This contradicts the fact that for each Mexican peso² of the public budget directed to the PA, at least 52 pesos are contributed to the country's economy (Bezaury Creel et al., 2011). As such, investment in conservation has been declining in Mexico, where it is viewed as a non-priority activity within the current federal government.

In ecosystem terms, water was identified as a central element in socioeconomic development activities and in the configuration of the PA landscape. Indicator scores of ecological status were consistent with areas of low urbanization and industrialization, classified as eutrophic-oligotrophic waters (Dodds, 2006). However, a decrease in the amount of water was detected, beyond what can be attributed to the limited local population growth but rather associated with economic activities that require water (Depraz et al., 2017). This has caused a search for new springs and even the purchasing of bottled water by local communities (Brunett et al., 2010). In practice, this means that more and more springs are tapped, and the recharge capacity is overwhelmed by rapid use. The physical alterations of the ecosystem (e.g., infrastructure for water distribution, tourism development, presence of crops, extensive livestock) were consistent with some alterations revealed by the aquatic ecosystem functioning assessments via biological indicators. Macroinvertebrate and macroalgae reflected a moderate ecological quality, with typical species of temperate mountain rivers in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt still persisting (Bojorge-García et al., 2010; Branco et al., 2014; Rodríguez-Flores & Carmona-Jiménez, 2018). These responses could be associated with the effects from land use change, since this causes the interaction of the terrestrial and aquatic systems to become truncated and an alteration in the recycling nutrient process (Merritt & Cummins, 2008). Therefore, additional measures must be implemented that protect the integrity and functionality of mountain streams (Allan, 1995). The social perspective on water resources showed that local residents do not recognize the problems detected in water quality. This situation may be due to two things: first, these changes, when subtle, are difficult to detect without the proper monitoring tools; secondly, rural inhabitants in Mexico tend to give greater importance to the attributes of quantity than quality (Solís-Correo, 2015). In this case, local communities recognized limitations in water supply infrastructure, and they themselves financed infrastructure and organized to perform tasks that should have been done by the government. This demonstrates the lack of public policies to improve local wellness (Andrade & Rhodes, 2012; Solís-Correo, 2015).

The social configuration of the community must also be considered, in which women are in charge of activities such as water management. This coincides with other rural communities, where the women have historically been marginalized by access to water and land, despite the fact that women culturally and traditionally use water to a greater extent (Soares et al., 2008; Silva Rodríguez de San Miguel, 2019; Gómez-Ruiz et al., 2022). The Nevado de Toluca case highlights female empowerment over natural resources due to circumstantial elements that encourage women to make daily decisions within their communities in the absence of men.

The local communities' involvement, knowledge, and the acceptance of the conservation instrument are some of the fundamental axes for PA success (Bobadilla et al., 2013; Ortega-Álvarez et al., 2022). The interviews herein revealed that the reclassification process was not based on a prior study of the socioeconomic characteristics, objectives, and motivations of the local communities. The resulting limited community participation in land use planning represents a failure of the management and operational plans of the PA (Depraz et al., 2017). In general, Mexican governance of watersheds has been conceived under a fragmented structure between institutions across different levels of government and with jurisdictions and powers divided between the city and rural areas. This results in an incongruence between the institutions regarding the ecosystem processes and the management scales, as evidenced within the Nevado de Toluca PA (Cotler et al., 2022). A clear example of the lack of institutional coordination lies in the operation of socioeconomic programs with opposing goals – while some programs favor the use of pesticides and agrochemicals, the Nevado de Toluca sub-zoning only allows organic agriculture (see Annex 2). This translates into a low compliance of the management plan and POAs. Most of the criticisms of the institution in charge of the PA (CONANP) were related to a lack of support and training for locals, which would have helped them transform their productive activities according to the management plan (Almeida-Leñero et al., 2017).

Recognizing adjacent communities as participants in the PA management is a strategy that in many cases has favored long-term conservation (Andrade & Rhodes, 2012; Alonso-Yañez et al., 2022). In the Nevado de Toluca, participation strategies have been explored in a very incipient way. The strategy of community monitoring was a tool that, although not attracting the attention of the entire population due to the lack of income opportunities, allowed us to inform and co-create a collective response to manage the water quality and quantity autonomously (Ortega-Álvarez et al., 2022). Additionally, this strategy can be considered as synergistic between conservation programs (Pinkus Rendón et al., 2014; Almeida-Leñero et al., 2017).

Research limitations. One of the main limitations in this study was the gender bias. Due to the current social configuration, women represented the majority of the participation. While this can offer a biased vision of the management and use of natural resources within the area, it reflects the changes in the Mexican countryside, and female empowerment can be a strategy that facilitates the management and compliance with PA regulations (Andrade & Rhodes, 2012). However, this means that not all views on land, water, and natural resources were included in this study, and since men are the ones who primarily have a voice and vote in internal decision-making, it is an issue to consider (Gómez-Ruiz et al., 2022).

Another important aspect to consider is that this study reflects changes in quality within the riparian ecosystem, which should also be reflected in the forest ecosystem. This key element was mentioned on several occasions among those interviewed, since it is subject to important pressures such as clandestine logging. While we were unable to evaluate the effect of these industries in the area, we highlight them as drivers of change that even the PA entity cannot contain, given that such industries continue to exploit the area through intensive cultivation and mining for construction materials.

Finally, within the proposed evaluation system, the socio-ecosystem characterization section (level 1) did not develop an important aspect that is driving force indicators. This was due to funding limitations and a lack of access to interviews with stakeholders in the government.

The evaluated aspects both in the diagnosis phase and in the evaluation of the conservation instrument showed that reclassification has had a low impact on conservation and has not improved the local socioeconomic conditions. The institutional contradictions, reflected in the implementation of programs with opposing objectives, suggest that conservation remains only on paper. The management plan is far from counteracting large-scale activities (e.g., agriculture, mining, logging) and hardly contributes to strengthening the local social network, since this instrument has generated more uncertainty and vulnerability within the communities due to the loss of autonomy for using natural resources.

From a conservation perspective, the evaluation of the PA instrument found that some of the evaluated aquatic ecosystems showed increased levels of deterioration over a short time period. Some problems identified were associated with the loss of riparian vegetation cover, intervention for water supply, and in some cases, the presence of excessive nutrients, mainly associated with crops. These bodies of water are ecologically and socially important since they provide the only sources of water for human consumption and the development of domestic and economic activities. This basic need is not addressed by the government, and in the midst of vulnerability due to resource dependence, the communities are forced to make management decisions to the best of their abilities.

The evaluation levels used in this research were efficient in showing the main failures associated with the conception and implementation of the Nevado de Toluca PA. One of the inconsistencies detected is that during the recategorization process, the socio-environmental problem concerning conservation was not well identified. The role of real drivers of change is underestimated, and local communities are completely excluded from the conception and development process. In regards to implementation, the annual operational plans present unrealistic expectations, especially taking into account that no local training or institutional support is provided to achieve the proposed goals.

The predominantly feminine view in our study, although reflecting a bias in not knowing the balanced gender perception, also reflects a feature of the current social composition that is directly related to PA functioning. The recategorization has not resulted in further employment opportunities for locals. In fact, a lack of job opportunities has led men to abandon their lands in search of opportunities in the labor market in nearby cities, leaving women and children devoid of many development opportunities within the PA.

We propose participatory monitoring within the area as a strategy for community empowerment of water resource usage and as a cohesive element between government policies and local needs. Knowing the quality of water generates certainty about the use of the resource in different activities and contributes to the government's proposals to conserve and manage the aquatic ecosystems in Nevado de Toluca over the short, medium, and long term.

The authors want to thank Edgar Caro Borrero for drawing up the figures. We also want to thank Dr María Fernanda Figueroa Díaz-Escobar for her support in the design of the surveys and their application. Likewise, we thank the Biol. María Fernanda Martínez-Moreno and the M. in S. Kenia Paola Márquez Santamaría for their support in the field with the collection of the rivers and the application of the surveys. Brett O. Butler provided English style and grammar corrections for the manuscript.

All relevant data are included in the paper or its Supplementary Information.

The authors declare there is no conflict.