Building large water diversion projects to form a grand national or regional water network is an important option to address the water crisis. It is necessary to explore the systems for managing large water network projects. This paper studied the management systems for large water network projects based on the institutional change theory. It put forward a set of innovative management options for the South-to-North Water Diversion (SNWD) project, the Three Gorges project and other similar projects in China. A comparative of these options, in both qualitative and quantitative terms, was conducted based on SWOT analysis and comprehensive expert evaluation. This paper finally proposed a recommended option, which requires the SNWD project, the Three Gorges project and the Danjiangkou reservoir to be managed together, and reservoirs along the three projects to be managed by local authorities.

  • Put forward a set of innovative management options for the South-to-North Water Diversion and other similar projects in China.

  • Compared these options based on SWOT analysis and comprehensive expert evaluation.

  • Inviting 33 authoritative experts for a comprehensive evaluation of these options.

Water, as a vital natural and economic resource in human society, is essential for the survival and development of humanity (Scanlon et al., 2023). The United Nations Summit on Sustainable Development in 2015 adopted a framework document, ‘Transforming Our World: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development’, of which the water-related Sustainable Development Goal 6 (SDG 6) is a key component (United Nations Department of Economic & Social Affairs, 2016). Over the past decades, climate change, severe droughts, population growth, increased demand for water and mismanagement further exacerbate global freshwater scarcity (Salehi, 2022). Halfway through the timeline of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, the progress in the implementation of the water-related SDG is less than expected on the whole, and global water resources are facing multiple crises and daunting challenges. Under such circumstances, building large water diversion projects to form a grand national or regional water network for rational allocation of water resources is an important option to address the water crisis.

At least 40 countries and regions in the world have built over 300 water diversion projects, and countries including the United States, Australia and South Korea all have their own water networks (Zhang et al., 2023). China has built large modern water projects, such as the South-to-North Water Diversion (SNWD) project, the Three Gorges project and the Danjiangkou reservoir (Fu et al., 2010; Liu et al., 2013; Liu et al. 2019; Long et al., 2020). These water projects, together with the many natural rivers and lakes in China, constitute the country's water resources network and become an important means for China to allocate water resources in time and space. However, river basins in China are poorly connected with many shortcomings, and as a result, the Chinese government has made a definite decision to build a national water network, a massive project that covers all parts of the country (Zweynert, 2009; Levi & Weingast, 2019; Li & Yang, 2024). Based on natural rivers and lake systems and supported by a proper management system via intelligent means, the network will make use of the country's facilities for diversion, drainage and storage of water and serves as water ecological protection and other functions.

However, large projects involve many stakeholders, making their management a great challenge (Sankaran et al. 2021). An inadequate organization model for management or unsound management system can prevent a project from working effectively, thus affecting its sustainability (Saukko et al. 2020). A review of the experiences and practices in establishing the systems for construction, operation and management of typical water diversion projects or inter-basin and cross-regional linear projects at home and abroad, reveals that the management systems for water projects are basically divided into decentralized and centralized ones (Poustie et al., 2015). As China is vigorously building a national water network, the model of independent project construction, operation and management under decentralized management systems cuts apart the unified management system of the entire water network and prejudices the unified scheduling of water resources. On the contrary, centralized management systems emphasize integrated management of projects and contribute to the unified allocation and scheduling of water resources (Xiao et al., 2018).

Successful practices of large project management at home and abroad have proved that the centralized and unified management of projects is the inevitable choice (Yu & Zhang, 2009). Water projects are mostly funded by the government and are therefore deemed as government projects. In fact, centralized management of government projects is the mainstream management model for such projects in developed Western countries and regions. Judd & Sheriff (1993) developed countries such as the United States, Germany and Singapore have all set up centralized management agencies for government projects to implement centralized and unified management of these projects (Nyikos & Ermasova, 2022; Breaugh et al., 2023). Meanwhile, the Outline of National Water Network Construction Plan proposes to innovate the management system for water network construction, and actively explore an integrated management model for investment, construction and operation; study and establish water network operation and scheduling management and other systems to improve institutionalized management; deepen institutional reforms for project management and explore the centralized management model to promote the sound operation of the project.

At present, most of the studies on water project management focus on the management of single or abstract water projects (Wang et al. 2021; Li, 2022; Chen et al. 2023), but few explore the management systems for large water network projects, and whether inter-basin water transfer projects and water control projects represented by SNWD and the Three Gorges should be put under centralized management. Based on the institutional change theory, this paper studied the centralized management systems for large water network projects on the premise of promoting the high-quality development of such projects, taking into account the main tasks and development goals of the national water network. It put forward a set of innovative management options for the SNWD, the Three Gorges and other similar projects in China, and analyzed the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT) of different options in both qualitative and quantitative terms and comprehensive expert evaluation. An evaluation index system for the optimal management options was established with the invitation of 33 authoritative experts.

Section 1 introduces the research background of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM), Section 2 describes the theoretical basis of this paper institutional change theory with SWOT analysis and expert comprehensive evaluation method, Section 3 demonstrates the results of the study and proposes a recommended solution, Section 4 provides a full discussion on the results of the study and verifies the reasonableness of the results and Section 5 describes the conclusions of this paper.

Research subjects

The national water network is a systematic integration of inter-basin water diversion projects and water control projects represented by the SNWD project, the Three Gorges project and local water projects. The Outline of National Water Network Construction Plan identifies the SNWD project as the backbone and main artery of the national water network. The SNWD project is the largest and most far-reaching inter-basin, cross-regional water resources allocation project in Chinese history. It has three routes, the eastern, middle and western routes, that link the Yangtze River, the Huaihe River, the Yellow River and the Haihe River to create an overall water resources pattern of ‘four horizontal and three vertical lines that divert water from the south to the north across the eastern and western parts of the country’ in central China (Figure 1). The first phase of the eastern and middle routes consists of 2,900-km main canals and has diverted nearly 60 billion m3 of water over the eight years since it was built and put into operation, greatly alleviating the competition for water among agriculture, industry, households and the environment and optimizing the allocation of water resources nationwide (Yan et al., 2023).
Fig. 1

An overview map of the study site, mapping the distribution of the locations of several water projects and the areas in which they are located.

Fig. 1

An overview map of the study site, mapping the distribution of the locations of several water projects and the areas in which they are located.

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The Three Gorges project spanning the main stream of the Yangtze River is China's largest and most expensive water project to date, and the world's largest hydropower station and clean energy production base. With functions such as flood control, power generation, water supply and irrigation, aquaculture, tourism, navigation, water resources allocation, energy conservation and emission reduction, the project features a total capacity of 39.3 billion m3 and a cumulative generating capacity of 100 billion kWh. It has produced a significant and far-reaching impact on China's energy supply, national economy and people's livelihood.

The Danjiangkou reservoir, as the source of water for the middle route, spans the provinces of Hubei and Hunan and consists of the Hanjiang reservoir and Danjiang reservoir areas (Figure 1). With a water area of 1,022.75 km2 and a storage capacity of 29.05 billion m3, it supplies water for domestic and production purposes to 20 large- and medium-sized cities in four provinces (municipalities) including Beijing, Tianjin, Henan and Hebei (Figure 1). The Danjiangkou reservoir delivers comprehensive services such as flood control and water supply, hydropower generation, agricultural irrigation, navigation, aquaculture and tourism and brings enormous benefits in the allocation of water resources in the Hanjiang River basin.

Figure 1 shows the geographical distribution of the eastern and middle routes and follow-up project of the SNWD project, the Three Gorges project and the Danjiangkou reservoir, which are all large water projects funded by the government, and are currently managed by different corporations. The investor representative of both China South-to-North Water Diversion Corporation Limited and China Three Gorges Corporation is the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC), an ad-hoc ministerial-level organization directly subordinated to the State Council that performs the investor's responsibilities on behalf of the country. The investor representative of Hanjiang Group is the Ministry of Water Resources (MWR), a ministerial-level component of the State Council that coordinates the work on water resources in China. Therefore, in the research on management systems, all related factors should be taken into consideration for the coordination among all parties amid China's efforts to build a national water network.

Methods

The institutional change theory is a well-known one in economics, with its representatives including American economist and Nobel laureate Douglass C. North, and is widely applied in different disciplines (Zweynert, 2009; Levi & Weingast, 2019). Institutional change means the marginal adjustment to the combination of rules, principles and implementation mechanisms that constitute the institutional framework. In Australia and other countries, existing urban water systems and management have led to a number of unsustainable outcomes. If there is to be a shift to sustainable urban water management (SUWM) practices, the established socio-technical structures that influence the behavior and decision-making of participants need to be changed. While some constructive innovations have emerged to support this shift, most remain technical in nature. These innovative programs are unable to achieve the broad social and institutional changes needed for further diffusion and uptake of SUWM practices. There is growing recognition of the importance of social theory and its research in addressing the challenges associated with developing more SUWM. Some scholars synthesize three areas of social theory around change to provide a conceptual framework to help socio-technical systems change. The framework can be used by urban water practitioners to design interventions to facilitate the transition to SUWM (Brown & Bos, 2013).

According to the institutional change theory, the process of institutional change generally involves five steps: (i) forming a first action group (either individuals or the government) that promotes an institutional change; (ii) proposing major options for such institutional change; (iii) assessing and selecting from these options according to the principle of institutional change (maximization of benefits); (iv) forming a second action group that promotes such institutional change (the decision-making body that assists the first action group in obtaining benefits) and (v) joint efforts by the two groups to achieve the institutional change (Abbott et al., 2016; Eilstrup-Sangiovanni & Verdier, 2024).

This paper applied the process of institutional change on the national water network management system and proposed the following process of reform of the national water network management system: (i) launching a government-led reform of the national water network management system; (ii) proposing the major options for such reform; (iii) assessing and selecting from these options in line with principles such as maximization of benefits and compliance; (iv) exploring the formation of a second action group and (v) promoting the completion of the reform. This study focuses on the second, third and fourth steps. The second step refers to the set of management options proposed in this paper, The third step refers to the qualitative assessment of the options using the SWOT method and the establishment of an evaluation index system, and the quantitative assessment of the options using the expert comprehensive evaluation method, under the principles of maximizing benefits and legal compliance, and the fourth step refers to the specific implementation recommendations proposed in the discussion section of this paper.

Figure 2 shows the framework of research on management system options for large water network projects. Current research on management systems is mostly qualitative, and this paper intends to explore in both qualitative and quantitative terms. First, all stakeholders in the national water network were surveyed to figure out their demands and concerns, and a set of options was developed. SWOT analysis and comprehensive expert evaluation were used for comparison of the options (Mollick & Nanda, 2016; Xing et al., 2023). The SWOT method was used for qualitative research to analyze the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of different options. An evaluation index system for these options was established in the principles of consistency, cost-effectiveness, effectiveness and feasibility. Authoritative experts were invited to conduct a comprehensive evaluation and quantitative study of the options based on the index system, and the options were evaluated and sorted for rationality. Initial recommendations were put forward respectively in the two cases. A final recommended option was selected from the initial recommendations through a combination of both qualitative and quantitative methods.
Fig. 2

A research framework diagram with four parts: managing program settings, SWOT analysis, comprehensive expert evaluation and overall judgement.

Fig. 2

A research framework diagram with four parts: managing program settings, SWOT analysis, comprehensive expert evaluation and overall judgement.

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Setting of management options

In light of the nature, characteristics and management requirements for the construction of national water network projects, four options were set to explore the systems and mechanisms for unified management of backbone water diversion projects and key water projects, with the demands of all parties concerned taken into account.

Option 1: Under the current system, the middle route of the SNWD project is managed by China South-to-North Water Diversion Corporation Limited, the Three Gorges project is managed by China Three Gorges Corporation, the Danjiangkou reservoir is managed by Hanjiang Group and reservoirs along these projects are managed by local authorities.

Option 2: The SNWD project and the Three Gorges project are managed together, the Danjiangkou reservoir is managed by Hanjiang Group and reservoirs along these projects are managed by local authorities.

Option 3: The SNWD project, the Three Gorges project and the Danjiangkou reservoir are managed together, while reservoirs along these projects are managed by local authorities.

Option 4: The SNWD project, the Three Gorges project, the Danjiangkou reservoir and all reservoirs along these projects are managed together.

SWOT analysis procedure

SWOT is an analytical method (Salehi, 2022; Scanlon et al., 2023) used to identify the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of a management unit in competition, and then organically align the unit's strategies with its internal resources and external environments. This method is very important for the development of strategies of management units. This paper used the SWOT method to analyze the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of different options, figure out the advantages and disadvantages of these options and identify the opportunities and challenges. This approach aims to qualitatively analyze the strengths and weaknesses of different options in order to select an initial option.

Expert consultation methodology

This paper established an evaluation index system for the management system options for national water network projects, invited experts to analyze the degrees of authority based on the index system, give scores based on the relevance and importance of the indices and calculated the weights of the indices. Thus, the rationality of different solutions is quantitatively analyzed in order to compare and select the optimal solution.

Supplementary Table S1 shows the evaluation index system for the management options. The index system should be able to fully reflect the basic principles of the management system for national water network projects. Based on the principles of institutional change, such as maximization of benefits and compliance, the evaluation index system consists of the following: (a) Consistency: consistent with the current system and the reform of the water resources management system for national water network projects; (b) Cost-effectiveness: minimizing the costs. Costs include the cost of building the system itself, and system operation costs; (c) Effectiveness: able to meet the objectives and design features of national water network construction; (d) Feasibility: workable under the current institutional framework and policies.

With the expert authority analysis, the degree of authority is determined by the judgment bases on which an expert gives score on an entry and his familiarity with what he is consulted about. This study set the corresponding items in the expert consultation questionnaire, which was filled in by each expert faithfully. Based on an expert's judgment coefficient (Ca) and familiarity coefficient (Cs), the authority coefficient (Cr) of the expert was obtained. The purpose of this step is to ensure the authority of the invited experts.

The formula for calculating the judgment coefficient Ca is:
(1)

Ca(i) = value assigned to practical experience + value assigned to theoretical analysis + value assigned to knowledge from counterparts + value assigned to intuition.

Where i represents an expert, and K represents the number of all experts.

The judgment bases, including theoretical analysis, empirical judgment and knowledge from counterparts and intuition, were assigned values for influence at three levels, namely low, medium and high, as shown in Supplementary Table S2.

The formula for calculating the familiarity coefficient Cs is:
(2)

Cs(i) = value assigned to the score.

Values of the degree of familiarity include extremely familiar (1.0), very familiar (0.9), familiar (0.8), less familiar (0.7) and unfamiliar (0.1).

Where i represents an expert, and K represents the number of all experts.

The expert authority coefficient (Cr) is the arithmetic mean of the judgment coefficient (Ca) and the familiarity coefficient (Cs). Cr ranges from 0 to 1, and the larger the value, the higher the degree of authority. It is generally accepted that Cr > 0.7 indicates acceptable reliability. The formula for calculating the expert authority coefficient Cr is:
(3)
With the comprehensive evaluation, data on the abovementioned four options and 12 indices forms the raw data matrix X:
(4)
where xij is the actual value of Index i for Option j.
An evaluation model was established for comprehensive evaluation:
(5)
where Sj represents the total score of Option j, wi is the weight of Index i, and xij is the score of Index i for Option j.

This section presents the theoretical foundation of the paper, the theory of institutional change, and the step-by-step details of the core methodology, SWOT analysis and expert comprehensive evaluation, to lay the foundation for the program comparison in the results section below.

SWOT analysis

The research team consists of professors and doctoral degree holders from research institutes, such as China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (IWHR) and Beijing Institute of Technology, who specialize in hydraulic engineering, hydrology and water resources and engineering management. A comprehensive and professional SWOT analysis of the four options was conducted (see Tables 14). The SWOT analysis results suggest that each option has some strengths and weaknesses and presents both opportunities and challenges. Option 3 best meets the functional requirements of national water network projects. While ensuring unified allocation and scheduling of water resources, it can shore up the weak links such as urban and rural water supply, flood control and drainage, water ecological protection and intelligent development of the water network. This option is realistic, viable and forward-looking and can help achieve the functional requirements and long-range plans of national water network projects. However, Option 3 cannot be quickly realized and is difficult to implement under the current circumstances, and there is no sound, scientific and reasonable supporting management system.

Table 1

SWOT analysis of Option 1.

ItemResult
  • The existing management system is balanced and can meet the current operating requirements of the water network

 
  • It performs poorly in unified scheduling and allocation of water resources

 
  • It is not conducive to the functioning of national water network projects

 
  • The long-term development goals and main tasks of national water network projects cannot be achieved effectively

 
  • No major risk would occur if the existing management system is maintained

 
  • It can hardly meet the functional requirements of the national water network in the long run

 
ItemResult
  • The existing management system is balanced and can meet the current operating requirements of the water network

 
  • It performs poorly in unified scheduling and allocation of water resources

 
  • It is not conducive to the functioning of national water network projects

 
  • The long-term development goals and main tasks of national water network projects cannot be achieved effectively

 
  • No major risk would occur if the existing management system is maintained

 
  • It can hardly meet the functional requirements of the national water network in the long run

 
Table 2

SWOT analysis of Option 2.

ItemResult
  • It is conducive to the unified allocation and scheduling of water from the SNWD project and the Three Gorges project

 
  • It can improve the current capabilities for allocation, economical and intensive use of water resources

 
  • It is difficult to implement and cannot fully mobilize the SNWD project and the Three Gorges project

 
  • The country vigorously supports the implementation of this option

 
  • The Outline of National Water Network Construction Plan contains relevant requirements

 
  • Changes in the external environment (financial crises, wars, etc.) can affect the smooth implementation of the option

 
ItemResult
  • It is conducive to the unified allocation and scheduling of water from the SNWD project and the Three Gorges project

 
  • It can improve the current capabilities for allocation, economical and intensive use of water resources

 
  • It is difficult to implement and cannot fully mobilize the SNWD project and the Three Gorges project

 
  • The country vigorously supports the implementation of this option

 
  • The Outline of National Water Network Construction Plan contains relevant requirements

 
  • Changes in the external environment (financial crises, wars, etc.) can affect the smooth implementation of the option

 
Table 3

SWOT analysis of Option 3.

ItemResult
  • The unified allocation and scheduling capabilities of the national water network can be further enhanced

 
  • Weak links such as water resources allocation, urban and rural water supply, flood control and drainage, water ecological protection and intelligent development of the water network can be shored up

 
  • The capabilities for flood and drought prevention, economical and intensive use of water resources, optimal allocation of water resources, ecological protection and improvement of major rivers and lakes can be further improved

 
  • It can help water network projects deliver their benefits

 
  • It is realistic, viable and forward-looking

 
  • It is difficult to implement and cannot be realized in a short time

 
  • The country vigorously supports the implementation of this option

 
  • The Outline of National Water Network Construction Plan contains relevant requirements

 
  • Changes in the external environment (financial crises, wars, etc.) can affect the smooth implementation of the option

 
ItemResult
  • The unified allocation and scheduling capabilities of the national water network can be further enhanced

 
  • Weak links such as water resources allocation, urban and rural water supply, flood control and drainage, water ecological protection and intelligent development of the water network can be shored up

 
  • The capabilities for flood and drought prevention, economical and intensive use of water resources, optimal allocation of water resources, ecological protection and improvement of major rivers and lakes can be further improved

 
  • It can help water network projects deliver their benefits

 
  • It is realistic, viable and forward-looking

 
  • It is difficult to implement and cannot be realized in a short time

 
  • The country vigorously supports the implementation of this option

 
  • The Outline of National Water Network Construction Plan contains relevant requirements

 
  • Changes in the external environment (financial crises, wars, etc.) can affect the smooth implementation of the option

 
Table 4

SWOT analysis of Option 4.

ItemResult
  • The capabilities for unified allocation and scheduling of water resources can reach the highest

 
  • The capabilities of economically and intensively using water resources, ensuring urban and rural water supply security, preventing and controlling flood risks, effectively protecting water ecological space and effectively controlling soil and water erosion can reach the highest

 
  • It is the most difficult to implement and requires comprehensive arrangements and long-term planning

 
  • It is the most difficult to manage and requires a large, mature and scientific supporting management system

 
  • There is no relevant legal basis or experience

 
  • It is not conducive to coordination of the interests of all parties or mobilizing all parties

 
  • The country vigorously supports the implementation of this option

 
  • The Outline of National Water Network Construction Plan contains relevant requirements

 
  • Changes in the external environment (financial crises, wars, etc.) can affect the smooth implementation of the option

 
ItemResult
  • The capabilities for unified allocation and scheduling of water resources can reach the highest

 
  • The capabilities of economically and intensively using water resources, ensuring urban and rural water supply security, preventing and controlling flood risks, effectively protecting water ecological space and effectively controlling soil and water erosion can reach the highest

 
  • It is the most difficult to implement and requires comprehensive arrangements and long-term planning

 
  • It is the most difficult to manage and requires a large, mature and scientific supporting management system

 
  • There is no relevant legal basis or experience

 
  • It is not conducive to coordination of the interests of all parties or mobilizing all parties

 
  • The country vigorously supports the implementation of this option

 
  • The Outline of National Water Network Construction Plan contains relevant requirements

 
  • Changes in the external environment (financial crises, wars, etc.) can affect the smooth implementation of the option

 

Comprehensive evaluation

Expert authority

In order to ensure the objectivity and authority of the evaluation of the management options, this study invited 33 experts specialized in hydrology and water resources, water policy research and hydraulic and hydropower engineering from different sectors such as universities, research institutions, enterprises and public institutions. More than 70% of the experts held a doctoral degree, and more than 75% held a senior title. Supplementary Table S3 lists the experts' organizations, areas of expertise and research, educational backgrounds and titles. The survey on experts' judgment bases for ‘the management system for national water network projects’ is shown in Supplementary Table S4. According to Formula (1), the judgment coefficient (Ca) is 0.89. The survey on experts' familiarity with ‘the management system for national water network projects’ is shown in Supplementary Table S5. According to Formula (2), the familiarity coefficient (Cs) is 0.8. According to Formula (3), the expert authority coefficient in this study is 0.845. This suggests that expert consultation in this study is reliable.

Weights of the evaluation indices for the management options

To objectively show the strengths and weaknesses of all indices in the overarching goal, it is essential to assign weights to the importance of the evaluation indices, i.e., to evaluate the influence of each index in the entire system and distinguish their contributions. This study invited experts to assess the relevance (to the management system for national water network projects) and importance of each index in the ‘evaluation index system for the management system options for national water network projects’, and give scores on their relevance (on a five-point scale, with 5 points = very relevant, 4 points = relevant, 3 points = moderately relevant, 2 points = less relevant and 1 point = irrelevant) and importance (on a five-point scale, with 5 points = very important, 4 points = important, 3 points = moderately important, 2 points = less important and 1 point = unimportant). The final score of the relevance or importance of each index was the average of the scores given by the 32 experts, and the proportion of the sum of each index's relevance and importance scores in the total relevance and importance scores of all indices was the weight of the index. See Table 5 for the final scores and weights of all indices. It can be seen that the weights of the 12 indices do not differ much. The highest weight is given to index 10, which is conducive to the performance of the public welfare function of the project, indicating that this is the index to which experts attach the most importance, and in addition, the timeliness of project scheduling, coordination of the interests of all parties and enthusiasm, etc., are also issues to which experts attach more importance.

Table 5

Scores and weights of evaluation indices for the management system options for national water network projects.

IndexIndex score
Index weight
RelevanceImportanceTotal
4.09 4.06 8.16 0.083 
3.90 3.25 7.15 0.073 
3.97 3.97 7.94 0.081 
4.19 4.22 8.41 0.085 
4.00 4.06 8.06 0.082 
4.19 4.22 8.41 0.085 
4.16 4.28 8.44 0.086 
4.22 4.28 8.50 0.086 
4.28 4.38 8.66 0.088 
10 4.34 4.40 8.74 0.089 
11 3.90 4.03 7.93 0.081 
12 3.94 4.03 7.97 0.081 
IndexIndex score
Index weight
RelevanceImportanceTotal
4.09 4.06 8.16 0.083 
3.90 3.25 7.15 0.073 
3.97 3.97 7.94 0.081 
4.19 4.22 8.41 0.085 
4.00 4.06 8.06 0.082 
4.19 4.22 8.41 0.085 
4.16 4.28 8.44 0.086 
4.22 4.28 8.50 0.086 
4.28 4.38 8.66 0.088 
10 4.34 4.40 8.74 0.089 
11 3.90 4.03 7.93 0.081 
12 3.94 4.03 7.97 0.081 

Comprehensive evaluation of the management options

Experts were invited to give scores on the extent by which each of the management system options for national water network projects is consistent with different evaluation indices on a four-point scale, with 4 points = fully consistent; 3 points = consistent; 2 points = moderately consistent and 1 point = inconsistent (see Figure 3 for the scores of all options). The level of the scores indicates the degree of strengths and weaknesses of different options under a single index. Under the different evaluation indices, the higher the score, the more the program meets the requirements of the index, and the lower the score, the less the option meets the requirements of the index. It can be seen that Option 3 and Option 1 achieved high scores under most of the evaluation indices without considering the weight of the indices, while Options 2 and 4 generally scored lower. As can be seen in Figure 3(a), Option 1 scores highly under Indexes 11 and 12, due to the fact that Option 1 is largely a status quo option, and as such it is consistent with the previous project construction management model and is well grounded and empirically sound. The high score for Option 3 under Indexes 5, 6 and 7 is due to the benefits of Option 3's centralized management model, which reduces management risk while controlling project construction and operating costs. As can be seen in Figure 3(b), the range of scores for Option 3 under the 12 indicators is the most concentrated and all are located in high scoring positions, which confirms the superiority of Option 3. The results can be used to derive the optimal option in terms of individual indices, but in order to arrive at the final recommended option, it is necessary to combine the weights of the indices and use the comprehensive evaluation model to calculate its comprehensive score.
Fig. 3

Scores of the management system options for national water network projects. (a) Scores for each indicator for different options. (b) Range of scores for each indicator for different options.

Fig. 3

Scores of the management system options for national water network projects. (a) Scores for each indicator for different options. (b) Range of scores for each indicator for different options.

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Based on the weights of the evaluation indices for the management system options for national water network projects and the scores of these options, the scores for the four options were calculated based on the comprehensive evaluation model, with Option 1 scoring 2.64, Option 2 scoring 2.52, Option 3 scoring 2.71 and Option 4 scoring 2.5. According to the scores of the four options, Option 3 is the best one, followed by Options 1 and 2. Therefore, Option 3 is recommended, in which the SNWD project, the Three Gorges project and the Danjiangkou reservoir are managed together, while reservoirs along these projects are managed by local authorities.

According to the results of SWOT analysis, Option 1 performs poorly in unified allocation and scheduling and can hardly meet the functional requirements of national water network projects (Table 1). Option 2 is conducive to the unified allocation and scheduling of water from the SNWD project and the Three Gorges project and can effectively enhance the efficiency and capacity of water resources allocation in China (Table 2). However, it is still unable to meet the functional requirements of national water network projects in the long run. Option 4 is an ideal one, but it is the most difficult to implement due to the absence of relevant experience and legal basis (Table 4). Option 3 is the best one for the management system for national water network projects (Table 3). According to the results of comprehensive expert evaluation, Option 3 gets the highest composite score and is also the best one, which requires the SNWD project, the Three Gorges project and the Danjiangkou reservoir to be managed together, and reservoirs along these projects to be managed by local authorities. Based on the size, operation and management of the three projects, the realities in China and the feasibility of the options, this paper argues that China South-to-North Water Diversion Corporation Limited and Hanjiang Group may be merged with China Three Gorges Corporation by reference to previous mergers of large state-owned enterprises in China. By doing so, the latter can undertake the operation and management of the SNWD project and the Danjiangkou reservoir, the construction of supporting projects as well as the development and construction of the follow-up project along the western route of the SNWD project.

Option 3 chooses to merge China South-to-North Water Diversion Corporation Limited and Hanjiang Group into China Three Gorges Corporation for two reasons: (a) pressure from the economic downturn in China and (b) the fact that China Three Gorges Corporation is strong enough to do so. The growth rates of China's general public budget revenue in the 21st century are shown in Figure 4. With quite slow economic growth over the past decade, and even negative revenue growth in 2020, it would be arduous for the central government to fund the establishment of a new group for such merger. With the mission of developing the Yangtze River, China Three Gorges Corporation has been engaged in the integrated development, utilization, operation and management of water resources for years. Currently, China Three Gorges Corporation has basically completed the main task of Yangtze River development, and its operating income has been increasing steadily for consecutive years, which registered 146,259 million yuan in 2022, with a gross profit of more than 42,528 million yuan (Figure 5). The planned first phase of the western route of the SNWD project requires an investment of over 120 billion yuan. China Three Gorges Corporation has enough strength to run and manage the Three Gorges project and other giant hydropower stations while undertaking the follow-up development, operation and management of the SNWD project and the Danjiangkou reservoir. At the same time, China Three Gorges Corporation needs to channel its high revenue into quality investment projects. Merging China South-to-North Water Diversion Corporation Limited and Hanjiang Group is a win-win decision. In addition, the Chinese government has clearly stipulated that each central enterprise can only have one main business line, and those with the same main business need to merge. Moreover, the Chinese government advocates the mergers of central enterprises managed by SASAC. The number of central enterprises managed by SASAC has decreased to 97 from 196 in 2003. The merger is in line with the current trend in China.
Fig. 4

A line graph plotting the growth rate of China's general public revenue in the 21st century (Source: China Statistical Yearbook).

Fig. 4

A line graph plotting the growth rate of China's general public revenue in the 21st century (Source: China Statistical Yearbook).

Close modal
Fig. 5

A bar chart containing two sets of data plotting the operating income and gross profit of the Three Gorges Corporation for the last five years (Source: Annual report of Three Gorges Group Corporation).

Fig. 5

A bar chart containing two sets of data plotting the operating income and gross profit of the Three Gorges Corporation for the last five years (Source: Annual report of Three Gorges Group Corporation).

Close modal

Option 3 chooses to manage the Danjiang reservoir together with the SNWD project and the Three Gorges project because of the important roles of the reservoir and the special realities in China. Established in 1975, the Danjiangkou reservoir delivers various benefits such as flood control, power generation, irrigation and navigation, and stands out in serving the public good. For this reason, in the reform to separate government functions from enterprise management in 1998, the State Council explicitly required the Danjiangkou reservoir to be in the charge of MWR, and run and managed by Hanjiang Group, an enterprise affiliated to the Changjiang Water Resources Commission of MWR. But for now, the eastern and middle routes of the SNWD project have been managed in a coordinated manner, the Office of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project Construction Commission of the State Council has been merged into MWR, and the follow-up project to the SNWD project, is under construction, which will channel water from the Three Gorges reservoir area to the Hanjiang River. Therefore, the Danjiangkou reservoir will evolve from a water source project to a water control project. In addition, China is now building a digital twin system for water resources management and three lines of defense for water and rain monitoring, greatly shortening the flood forecast period and significantly improving the flood control capability of the Danjiangkou reservoir. China has unveiled the Yangtze River Protection Law, which contains explicit provisions on the unified scheduling of a group of reservoirs, which have produced a positive impact of reservoir scheduling. Hence, putting the Danjiangkou reservoir under unified management by China Three Gorges Corporation, an enterprise under the SASAC, is in line with the current context and realistic requirements of national water network construction in China.

Option 3 chooses not to manage local water projects together due to the realities in China. The first phase of the eastern and middle routes of the SNWD project has established a diversified, multi-level and multi-channel investment system and involves both fiscal investments and financial loans, as well as investments from both central and local governments (see Supplementary Table S6 for the financing details). The diversification of investors leads to a variety of owners of property rights. At present, it has been expressly stated that the SNWD Project Fund is local capital, while investments within the central budget are central capital. The SNWD Project Fund has been raised by provinces benefiting from such water diversion. The Fund for the Construction of Major National Water Conservancy Projects is a government-managed fund established to support the construction of the SNWD project, solve the follow-up problems of the Three Gorges project, and strengthen the construction of major water projects in central and western regions. The planning and construction of the eastern and middle routes of the SNWD project spent 101.49 billion yuan (Liping, 2007), which was co-financed by the provinces benefiting from the project, or local governments of these provinces. It should have been local capital, as in the case of the SNWD Project Fund. However, the interim measures for the administration of the collection and use of the fund for the construction of Major National Water Conservancy Projects (CZ [2009] No.90) prescribes that, ‘the Fund shall be used for the construction of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, and shall be temporarily managed as central capital’. This indicates that the fund for the Construction of Major National Water Conservancy Projects, which should have been local capital, is temporarily owned by the central government. The capital of China South-to-North Water Diversion Corporation Limited is also fully owned by the central government, which has greatly curbed the enthusiasm of local governments for implementing Option 4 and added difficulty to the merger of local water projects.

From the analysis, the results of both the SWOT analysis and comprehensive expert evaluation suggest that Option 3 is the best one, and China Three Gorges Corporation, with its high annual operating income and gross profit, is fully qualified to incorporate the SNWD project and the Danjiangkou reservoir. The Danjiangkou reservoir is undergoing transition from a water source project to a water control project, and based on the current context of water network construction and realistic requirements for centralized and unified management in China, putting the Danjiangkou reservoir under the management by China Three Gorges Corporation is a rational decision. Due to low enthusiasm of local governments and great difficulty in the merger, local water projects continue to be managed by local governments, which help coordinate the interests of all parties.

In the early stages of construction of the California Water Transfer Project in the United States, the interests of the transfer area were neglected, resulting in the stagnation of the development of the Owens Valley and other water sources, and the people in the transfer area have protested over the years. In order to solve this problem, safeguard the water reserved for the river, and strengthen the coordination of project scheduling, the Federal Bureau of Reclamation, which is responsible for the Central Valley Project, and the California Water Resources Board, which is responsible for the California Aqueduct Project, discuss and formulate the annual operation and scheduling plan every year, and realize the integrated management of the project's operation. In addition to meeting the water needs of agriculture and cities, the California Water Transfer Project also undertakes flood control, navigation, power generation and other objectives that require coordination of inter-industry interests. To this end, California has strengthened the federal, state and local government departments, enterprises and other social groups multi-party participation, the formation of good cooperation between the different water management organizations, before laying the foundation for the development of California's prosperity, and this paper puts forward the innovative program from the beginning to do the water source project and water transfer project coordination and unified management, and according to the actual situation of the local water conservancy project management strategy, taking into account the interests of the water source and the receiving area. In summary, the results of this paper are reliable.

With regard to the specific operation and management mode, the following recommendations are made:

First, market-oriented operation, commercial operation and management mode is established. Water is both a public product and a commodity. If organized in a market-oriented way, it can avoid the lack of separation between government and enterprise and government and capital, which is conducive to improving management efficiency, reducing the cost of project construction and upgrading the level of operation. The Three Gorges Group's operation experience and comprehensive utilization of water resources can be copied to the operation and management of the SNWD project and the Danjiangkou reservoir. Through market-oriented operation, it is conducive to playing the leading role of the market in water production and consumption, promoting water conservation and realizing efficient use of water resources.

Second, to ensure the long-term stable operation of the project and the establishment of rolling development mechanism. The SNWD project is a large-scale project with high engineering and technical requirements and difficult management and coordination. In terms of operation, there are contradictions between the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the SNWD in the distribution of water resources, the control of groundwater mining, new water and old water replacement and many other issues, the use of water, water pricing mechanism and the recovery of water charges need to be further studied and implemented. In terms of construction, the future of the Western Route Project investment needs are huge, water quality protection, embankment remediation, ecological and environmental protection also need long-term large-scale investment, continue to rely on all national investment is not in line with the direction of the country's future market-oriented reforms. If the Three Gorges Group to coordinate the SNWD project and the Danjiangkou reservoir operation and management, the initial period can be ‘electricity to feed the water’ to ensure smooth operation, in the medium and long term through the market-oriented way to raise funds for the construction, the establishment of a long-term mechanism, to achieve the SNWD project benign rolling development and operation.

Taking China's national water network projects as an example, this paper studied the management systems for large water network projects, and probed into the management system options for large water projects such as the SNWD project and the Three Gorges project in China.

It evaluated the management system options for national water network projects through SWOT analysis and comprehensive expert evaluation, and recommended Option 3 based on comprehensive evaluation, which requires the SNWD project, the Three Gorges project and the Danjiangkou reservoir to be managed together, and reservoirs along the three projects to be managed by local authorities. Option 3 is in line with the law of construction, operation and management of large water network projects and is conducive to project scheduling and operation and coordination of the interests of all parties. This option ensures clear rights and responsibilities of all parties. It can solve the problem of overlapping management, improve management efficiency, replace negotiations and consultations among multiple organizations with integrated internal administrative orders, which can greatly cut transaction costs and improve efficiency. It offers economies of scale of assets. With the construction of projects, substantial assets are often accumulated. The unified operation of assets under the centralized management system is not only conducive to preserving and increasing the value of the assets but also to bringing the benefits of projects into play. The limitation of this paper is that, although we tried to guarantee expert authority by selecting quite a few experts engaged in multiple areas of research from prestigious organizations, it might still be highly subjective due to a lack of corresponding supporting data research, which should be taken seriously in the follow-up research process.

China's water resources face greater uncertainty in the future due to the impacts of global climate change and human activities. Moreover, the impacts of climate change on water resources are significant and can cross national boundaries. Cross-regional integrated water resources management is therefore essential for climate-resilient development. In addition, climate change increases the likelihood of international river conflicts, and strengthening transboundary water resources adaptive management is an inevitable choice for the sustainable development of basin countries. The innovative solution proposed in this paper can provide an important reference for the construction of China's national water network project and good thinking for global trans-regional water resources management to better cope with the severe challenges posed by future climate and environmental changes. It will play a key role in alleviating the global water scarcity problem and promoting the timely realization of the water-related SDG 6.

This research was funded by the ‘National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (No. 2021YFC3200205)’ and the ‘Major Science and Technology Projects of the Ministry of Water Resources (SKS-2022032)’.

Q.Y. wrote the main manuscript text, L.C. provided meticulous guidance on the paper and all the authors reviewed the manuscript.

All relevant data are included in the paper or its Supplementary Information.

The authors declare there is no conflict.

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Supplementary data