Pathway from water-conflict to water-peace in the Middle East and North Africa

Throughout history, water has been a pivotal factor in the rise and downfall of many civilizations (Abate 1994; Cookson et al. 2019). The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region notably marks the stage for both the earliest water conflicts and the establishment of first transboundary water agreements (Hatami & Gleick 1994; Sand 2018). Water scarcity and resource competition are critical challenges facing the MENA region, where arid and semi-arid conditions prevail. With limited freshwater resources and rapidly growing populations (Hameed et al. 2019; Maftouh et al. 2022), the region is experiencing increasing pressure on its water systems. Climate change further exacerbates this situation by intensifying droughts, reducing rainfall variability, and disrupting seasonal water availability (Fragaszy et al. 2020; Boloorani et al. 2024).

The MENA region is frequently mentioned as a prime example of a region where disputes over water resources might escalate into violent conflicts (Lonergan 1997). From 2012 to 2022, the number of water-related conflicts globally has quadrupled compared with their numbers from 2000 to 2011, mainly due to violence in the MENA region (Gleick & Shimabuku 2023). Over the past decade, MENA's water scarcity has worsened in parallel with escalated political unrest and armed conflicts. The political turmoil and associated violence from 2010 onward have destabilized several countries in the region such as Iraq, Libya, Syria, Yemen, and Sudan (Fraihat & Yaseen 2020; Barakat & Fakih 2021; Msellemu & Kessy 2022).

Historically, water resources in the MENA region have been closely linked to socio-political dynamics, playing a central role in shaping the livelihoods of communities and the policies of states (Odhiambo 2017; Hejazi et al. 2023). In recent decades, the combination of over-extraction, pollution, and unsustainable management practices has pushed the region to the edge of a water crisis. This scarcity is not just an environmental issue but a geopolitical one, often contributing to disputes from micro- and meso-scales between communities and regions to macro-scales with disputes even between neighboring nations on transboundary water resources. The complex nexus between water scarcity and conflict has been widely documented, with water resources being weaponized, trigger conflicts, or targeted during times of political unrest (Gleick & Shimabuku 2023).

Politicizing water systems during water availability and abundance, rather than only during drought or scarcity, is a problem that is frequently disregarded. Although water scarcity is frequently cited as a conflict trigger, water abundance can also be weaponized as both offensive and defensive strategies (De Kraker 2015). Controlling floodwater management systems, including dams, levees, or drainage networks, can be used as a weapon in conflict zones to punish or target particular areas, disrupt livelihoods, and destabilize people. This underlines the need for protective measures irrespective of water availability and highlight for solution approaches that come from comprehensive analysis of the structure and dynamics of conflicts where water is involved (Nandalal & Simonovic 2003).

While many aspects of the nexus between water and conflict have been well studied, there is still a significant lack of comprehensive frameworks for interventions, especially in the MENA region where such efforts are desperately required. The structure of how water can be involved as a trigger, weapon, or casualty in conflicts is not fully captured by research in MENA, which frequently concentrates on discrete aspects of disputes involving water. An integrated approach that tackles complex dynamics is still missing. Developing and implementing such comprehensive frameworks is crucial, for instance, to changing the narrative of water as a source of conflict to one that promotes peace and collaboration, which will ultimately support regional stability in the long run (Gruen 2000; Nagheeby & Amezaga 2023; Döring et al. 2024).

Alleviating/minimizing the impact of conflicts on water resources or preventing water from being a target or a trigger in conflicts in the MENA region requires a multi-faceted approach that goes beyond traditional water management strategies. While technical (hard) solutions, such as building structures to improve water supply from conventional and conventional water sources (e.g., desalination, water reuse and rainwater harvesting), are critical, they alone are insufficient to foster this transformation where water scarcity intersects with socio-political issues (Gleick 2002; Medeiros & Sivapalan 2020). Soft strategies such as conflict resolution, water diplomacy, collaborative governance, sustainable water management, and capacity building are an integral part of the formula for peacebuilding, immediate recovery, and post-conflict rebuilding (Swain 2016).

To this end, based on a thorough examination of the water-conflict dynamics in MENA, this study seeks to establish a practical framework for alleviating and minimizing water-related conflicts in the region. This research contributes to the scientific discourse on the nexus between water, conflict, and peacebuilding in water-scarce regions, offering insights into how water resources can be managed to not only prevent conflicts but also foster long-term resilience in the face of climate change and socio-political instability.

MENA is one of the most water-scarce regions in the world (Al-Saidi et al. 2016). Its water resources are faced with interlinked challenges such as limited water resources, rapid population growth, and socioeconomic development that all together contribute to the region's increasing water scarcity (Joffé 2016). Further, these challenges are compounded by external factors, including climate change impacts, political instability, and armed conflicts.

With an average renewable water resource of just 1,500 m³ per capita annually, the MENA region suffers from severe water scarcity when compared with other regions. According to Droogers et al. (2012), this is much less than the global average of 8,500 m³ per capita and far less than the averages for South America (47,000 m³), North America (20,000 m³) and Europe (11,000 m³). Water availability varies greatly throughout the MENA region; in Iran and Iraq, it can be over 2,000 m³ per capita annually, while in Jordan, Palestine, Yemen, and several Gulf countries, it is less than 200 m³ per capita annually.

In contrast, the pessimistic scenario indicates that water stress in MENA will continue to worsen over the same time horizons, i.e., 2030, 2050, and 2080. While optimistic scenarios assume a more sustainable development pathway, slower rates of population expansion, and successful strategies of mitigating climate change, pessimistic scenarios assume strong economic growth combined with a heavy reliance on fossil fuels, which will exacerbate the effects of climate change and the scarcity of water. The projections in Figure 1 indicate that MENA's water scarcity is likely to continue and potentially worsen in the future, particularly under the business-as-usual and pessimistic scenarios, with potentially devastating implications. A drastic drop of 6–14% of the gross domestic product (GDP) is predicted by 2050, marking the region with the largest economic setback globally due to climate-induced water scarcity (World Bank 2017).

This study primarily used data from the Water Conflict Chronology database (Pacific Institute 2024) to make an in-depth analysis of historical conflict incidents in MENA, where water is involved. The database provides a thorough record of cases where water resources were essential to conflicts, offering a unique dataset for analyzing the connections between water concerns and tensions.

The collection contains crucial information such as the date of each incident, the type of water dispute, and whether it involved intrastate or non-state parties. Furthermore, it indicates the country and region where each occurrence occurred, enabling a more complete understanding of regional patterns in water involvement in conflicts across the MENA region. The descriptive information in the database offers valuable insights into the manner in which water resources were involved in each instance. Examples of incidents include whether water was used as a weapon in a military operation, a cause of a conflict, or a casualty when water assets and capacities are targeted. This enabled conducting a comprehensive analysis of water-related occurrences in five selected fragile MENA countries, namely, Iraq, Libya, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen over a 24-year period (2000–2023). This period allowed drawn comparison and derives insights for two periods: pre- and post-2010. The year 2010 marks a pivotal point in the region's stability, as it has witnessed the onset of significant socio-political changes that reshaped the geopolitical and socio-economic landscape in the MENA region.

To develop a framework useful to lessen the degree of water involvement in conflicts and minimize the negative effects of tensions on water resources, this study used a multi-step methodology to examine the different water functions in conflicts throughout the MENA region. Data retrieval, classification, analysis, and the creation of a framework comprised the key elements of the methodological approach. The framework's applicability was then evaluated.

The first step involved data retrieval and analysis of information derived from the Water Conflict Chronology database. Each conflict's date, type, and nature are listed in this database along with the nation, area, and detailed incident descriptions. This study offers an examination of the conflict dynamics in the selected countries by classifying conflict instances according to their geographical scale and the actors involved. Accordingly, four types of conflict scales were considered: local, regional, national, and transboundary. Local conflict incidents, which are limited to certain regions, frequently involve disagreements over access to water resources between individuals or small groups, while regional incidents engage communities, regions or tribes. National conflicts, which are usually caused by government forces or militias for control of vital water infrastructure, affect greater areas inside a single nation and involve widespread disruptions to water supplies. Transboundary disputes arise when one country's activities have a substantial impact on the water security of neighboring states, especially when those conflicts center on shared resources like rivers or aquifers.

The actors participating in water-related conflicts were divided into three categories: state, non-state, and mixed. Official government agencies, armed forces, and state-sponsored organizations are examples of state actors that have the power to control or interfere with water resources. Independent groups that function outside of governmental authority, such as terrorist organizations, militias, or tribes, are referred to as non-state actors. Conflicts that involve both state and non-state actors, including conflicts between government forces and militias or insurgents, are referred to as ‘mixed actors’. A thorough assessment of the various types and causes of water conflicts in the selected countries is provided by this classification.

Individual instances were studied through a thorough analysis that followed the categorization. In order to comprehend the fundamental causes, dynamics, and effects of water conflicts, this phase entailed qualitative content analysis of incident descriptions. Finding recurrent themes, such as conflicts fueled by resource scarcity, the destruction of water infrastructure, or the use of water as leverage in larger geopolitical conflicts, received special emphasis. Critical elements that intensify conflicts and worsen water insecurity in the area were identified with the aid of this investigation.

Using the knowledge gathered from this analysis, a framework was created with an emphasis on fostering collaboration, long-term stability and reducing the negative effects on water resources. A paradigm for water-peace transformation that prioritizes preventive and adaptive actions was created by incorporating the lessons learnt. This strategy combines both hard and soft interventions, such as investing in resilient infrastructure and facilitating mechanisms to foster stakeholder discussion and collaboration to address underlying tensions before they become conflicts.

Detailed analysis of specific significant incidents of conflict was carried out to verify the framework's applicability. These instances help demonstrating how the suggested strategies and associated interventions could be used to defuse tensions and advance sustainable water management in actual situations. The framework was highlighted, for example, in situations involving pastoralists and farmers conflicts, where empowering local communities can contribute significantly to lower tensions and promote mutual confidence between disputing parties.

A closer examination of how water functions in armed conflicts in the MENA region reveals the prevalence of a threefold role: as a weapon, a trigger, or a casualty. Examples of the selected five countries over the past decade illustrate how disputes over water resources can ignite broader conflicts among opposing groups. Scarce water resources and competition for them can escalate internal conflicts within nations, leading to violent confrontation. In several MENA conflicts, water has been wielded as a weapon through tactics such as restricting access, diverting flow, contaminating water, or destroying infrastructure and water sources. This often includes direct attacks on water facilities and infrastructure or interference with water supply systems. The destruction of critical water infrastructure during conflict led to severe consequences on civilian populations, making water itself a casualty of warfare in these situations.

Water's role as a trigger for conflict is evident in MENA, especially in Sudan, which has experienced the highest number of conflicts triggered by water disputes (n = 17). This suggests that water scarcity and limited water resources significantly influence the dynamics of water-related conflicts within the country. This probably stems from competition over scarce water resources among various groups and regions. Documented evidence shows that water scarcity has fueled violent confrontations among different groups (e.g. farmers and pastoralists) within the countries, further worsening internal instability.

Water as a weapon in conflict is clearly demonstrated by notable instances in MENA, particularly in Iraq (n = 6) and Syria (n = 4), indicating the strategic importance of water control in these countries' conflicts. Despite having the lowest frequency overall (n = 12) compared with the other two categories, i.e. trigger and casualty, these occurrences have resulted in serious harms on civilian populations and infrastructure. In both countries, conflicted parties have repeatedly employed water as a weapon by intentionally flooding areas and demolishing dams, resulting in widespread flooding and disruption of civilian life, infrastructure, and livelihoods. In one single case between January and April 2014, controlling the Falluja dam in Iraq and its operations by the Islamic State has resulted in flooding vast lands resulting in 12,000 families lost their homes and 200 km² of farmland damaged (Gleick 2019).

Water as a casualty of conflict is pronounced in the region, with Yemen witnessing the highest number of such cases (n = 140), representing over half of the total (n = 241) in this category among the five nations. This indicates the particularly destructive nature of conflicts in Yemen to water systems and infrastructure. The violence in Yemen's capital, Sana'a, in 2011 resulted in acute shortages of water and electricity, leading to the over-extraction of groundwater and depletion of aquifers. Furthermore, the catastrophic collapse of the Derna Dam in Libya in September 2023, triggered by a severe storm, underscores the consequences of inadequate maintenance amidst political upheaval. This event led to devastating floods, some of the most severe in recent memory.

Conflicts exacerbate water contamination, for instance, through the breakdown and deterioration of water supply and sanitation systems in Iraq, posing significant health risks (Todd 2024). Yemen experienced the worst cholera outbreak in modern history due to the deterioration of its sanitation system under the ongoing political unrest and armed conflict. One million cases (Dureab et al. 2019) and thousands of deaths (Ng et al. 2020) had been reported between late 2016 and March 2018. Similarly, in the Gaza Strip, the destruction of sewage treatment plant has severely compromised water quality, leading to a high incidence of waterborne illnesses. As of 2018, around 93% of the groundwater in the strip was considered unsuitable for human consumption (Al-Hindi et al. 2021).

Natural ecosystems and habitats of living organisms are disrupted by infrastructure destruction and water source contamination, which threatens not only biodiversity but also food security. Water scarcity in Sudan has been made worse by prolonged hostilities that have resulted in substantial environmental degradation, including soil erosion and deforestation (Mohamed et al. 2016). Agricultural operations in the main irrigated and rainfed schemes in central Sudan are disrupted by conflicts, which exacerbates food insecurity and economic instability in the country.

The projected increase in water scarcity across river basins is likely to surge significantly due to pollution, mostly from agricultural and urbanization activities and practices (Wang et al. 2024). The MENA region's political unrest and continuous conflicts may make the condition of many water sources – which are already plagued by concerns of scarcity and contamination – even worse. The release of pollutants during armed conflicts would further compound existing challenges, compromising the quality of water in crucial rivers and aquifers. Apart from affecting agricultural yields and human health, this degradation will destabilize ecosystems already strained by climate change and other stressors.

Water has traditionally been used as a weapon, a trigger for war, and a casualty in the MENA region with devastating implications. Effective strategies are, thus, imperative to protect water systems in the MENA region and mitigate the severe implications of conflicts over water. In the short term, addressing water-related conflicts requires immediate interventions throughout the region. For instance, increasing humanitarian aid to Yemen to ensure access to clean water is imperative. Strengthening the enforcement of international laws to safeguard water systems during conflicts is vital to reduce casualties and mitigate damage to infrastructure, particularly in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. Enhancing availability and accessibility to improved water resources and establishing mechanisms for conflict prevention and resolution are for Sudan to avert further bloodshed.

To foster and promote shift from water-conflict to water-peace, the CCT interventions can be divided into two main categories: soft interventions and hard interventions. Soft interventions that promote collaboration and increase social resilience include raising public awareness, involving the community, and fortifying Water User Associations (WUAs). In order to physically safeguard water resources, hard interventions concentrate on building resilient infrastructure, such as subterranean pipelines and robust water facilities. While numerous approaches may be used to reduce water scarcity and safeguard water infrastructure, these approaches can potentially work in concert in a number of ways. Combining these strategies maximizes the potential of the water-peace nexus synergies, tackles current issues while establishing a basis for long-term stability and resilience to climate change, and makes it possible for water to serve as a catalyst for cooperation and regional conflict resolution.

Foundational strategies (core circle) serve as the cornerstone for converting water-conflict into water-peace. Robust frameworks and inclusive decision-making processes are ensured through strengthening local governance and cooperation. Communities can better manage their resources when they have robust infrastructure, such as water delivering and treatment systems, early warning systems, dispute resolution mechanisms, and proper education. For well-informed decision-making and resource management, accurate and timely data collection and monitoring are essential.

Supportive strategies (middle circle) offer the necessary infrastructure and systems required to support the core strategies. Mobilizing financial resources into water infrastructure guarantees that local communities have the physical resources required for efficient water management. Improving the management and monitoring of water quality supports the safety and sustainability of these resources. Encouraging environmentally responsible and sustainable local water management practices promotes effective and sustainable water use.

Expansive strategies (outer circle) build upon and intensify the effects of the foundational and supportive strategies. Strengthening international support for local initiatives brings in additional resources and expertise. Raising local public awareness ensures that the knowledge on best practices is shared and community is informed and engaged in sustainable water management practices. Integrating cutting-edge technological and innovation brings in creative solutions to support water management, conflict resolution, and sustainability efforts.

It is important to understand that, in contrast to technological developments in water management, public knowledge, community participation, and dispute resolution procedures play a fundamentally different role. Building trust, encouraging collaboration, and averting conflicts by communication and understanding are the main goals of public awareness campaigns and conflict resolution techniques. These interventions are crucial for both community-level resilience and rapid conflict de-escalation, especially in high-tension settings. These soft actions help to maintain social stability over the long run by establishing the importance of water as a common resource.

On the other hand, tackling the structural and technological difficulties of water management in areas that are prone to violence requires strong infrastructure, remote sensing tools, and early warning systems. By guaranteeing dependable access and effective usage, these hard interventions not only improve water security but also prevent water resources from being targeted or used as weapons during conflicts. By lessening the vulnerabilities that frequently lead to water-related conflicts, investing in such systems lays the groundwork for lasting peace.

Water disputes in MENA can be lessened by promoting and putting these interventions, among others, into action. Building with water for peace in mind will reduce tensions and advance harmony in addition to ensuring that everyone has equitable access to drinkable water, increasing agricultural productivity, and improving overall health. By acting proactively, the region can lessen the negative effects of armed and political conflicts on its essential and limited water resources, giving its population a more stable and secure future. Making water a pillar of stability is essential to MENA's continued development and security.

We examined certain significant water-related conflicts in Sudan, Libya, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen to demonstrate how the CCT framework can foster and promote a water-peace paradigm. To overcome governance shortcomings, prevent resource weaponization, and alleviate water scarcity, the CCT incorporates foundational, supportive, and expansive strategies.

• (i) Water conflicts between pastoralists and farmers in Darfur, western Sudan

Conflicts between farmers and pastoralists over limited water resources in Darfur, Sudan, show how rivalry may turn violent, particularly during dry seasons. By guaranteeing equitable water distribution, fundamental interventions like bolstering WUAs aid in conflict resolution and foster collaboration. While early warning systems can stop disputes from getting worse by informing these groups of forecasts of climate conditions, enhancing preparedness, supportive strategies concentrate on improving water availability, such as building reservoirs and rainwater collection, have the potential to lessen resource rivalry. By educating communities and encouraging cooperation, expansive strategies, such as public awareness campaigns on sustainable water use, can ease tensions. When combined, these strategies can lessen disputes over water and promote regional stability.

• (ii) Water pollution crisis in Basra, southern Iraq

A clear illustration of how environmental deterioration can spark conflict and intensify social unrest is the 2018 Basra, Iraq, disaster, in which tens of thousands of people were ill due to polluted drinking water. Widespread demonstrations that became violent were ignited by the fundamental problems of poorly run water systems and excessive salinity. The CCT provides multiple ways to reduce these root causes. Enhancing water management by giving local water associations the authority to guarantee fair distribution and upgrade infrastructure is one of the foundational strategies. While investing in strong water purification systems might reduce health hazards, supportive strategies on deploying mobile water quality monitoring equipment to identify contamination early is a crucial intervention. By encouraging regional cooperation and trust, expansive strategies like cross-border cooperation in managing shared water resources might stop contamination occurrences of transboundary nature in the future. Furthermore, real-time solutions can be obtained by remote sensing for water quality monitoring, which lowers the likelihood of future emergencies.

• (iii) Weaponization of water in Syria

The destructive conflict in Syria has provided a clear example of how water can be used as a weapon for tactical advantage. The intentional targeting of water resources to control territory and populations is demonstrated by events such as the 2014 restriction of water supplies to Wadi Barada and the 2017 flooding of Aleppo communities. The CCT provides a methodical way to lessen these effects. In order to stabilize water distribution and discourage its use in conflict, foundational strategies would place a high priority on reestablishing local councils, implement legal protections that classify water infrastructure as neutral, and esablish community-led water management systems. Investing in robust infrastructure, like subterranean pipelines, to shield water sources from deliberate harm is one supportive tactic. To deter the use of water as a weapon, extensive strategies concentrate on utilizing public awareness campaigns and enlisting the help of reliable community leaders. It is also crucial to incorporate international legislation into the plan. The Geneva Conventions, which protect resources necessary for civilian survival, are broken when civilian water infrastructure is intentionally targeted. By guaranteeing responsibility and fostering long-term stability and resilience, the enforcement of these international legal frameworks in conjunction with technological cooperation can improve the conservation of water resources.

• (iv) Attacks on water infrastructure in Yemen and Libya

The devastating political and security turmoil in Yemen and Libya has severely damaged water infrastructure, depriving millions of people of access to clean water. The 2017 airstrike on power lines in Dhamar and the 2016 attacks that cut off water to around 20 million people in Yemen show how crucial infrastructure has been lost to conflict. The CCT suggests a variety of strategies to minimize risks on water resources. Establishing local water committees to oversee shared wells, resolve disputes, and protect water sources is one of the fundamental interventions. To lessen reliance on delicate centralized systems, supportive strategies emphasize rainwater collection and the development of other water sources. Leveraging the power of sensor technologies that can monitor water networks and identify damage early, ensuring prompt repairs, expansive strategies make use of international cooperation to mobilize financial, technological, and human capacity support. Yemen and Libya can lessen the effects of violence on water infrastructure by strengthening infrastructure resilience and empowering local communities.

Water has become a source of conflict and instability in the MENA region due to an extraordinary water crisis that has been made worse by socioeconomic, political, and climatic factors. As a result of the deliberate and undeliberate destruction of water infrastructure and manipulation of water supplies during the conflicts in MENA, clean water access has become scarce for many people. This severe scarcity exacerbates humanitarian crises, leading to population displacement and adding strain to already fragile socioeconomic structures in numerous MENA nations. Predictions indicate a rise in the likelihood of water-related conflicts as anthropogenic pressures and climate change persist (Unfried et al. 2022; Kåresdotter et al. 2023), further diminishing water supplies. Consequently, there is a growing demand in MENA for coordinated, enduring solutions to address these pressing issues. A crucial step toward a water-secure future is understanding the dynamics of the water-conflict nexus to propose appropriate intervention for water systems safeguarding. This essential knowledge is helpful to construct a transformation pathway from water-conflict to water-peace in this region.

The research revealed how water is increasingly being weaponized, manipulated, and impacted in MENA, especially in nations like Iraq, Libya, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen. We highlight the urgent need for an integrated strategy to transform water-conflict to water-peace narrative by thoroughly analyzing these dynamics. Examples from this study demonstrate how water excess as well may be abused and turned into a weapon, in addition to conflicts connected to water scarcity.

The CCT provides a framework that divides tactics into foundational, supportive, and expansive strategies to solve this urgent problem. The main goals of foundational strategies are to ensure community involvement, data-driven decision-making, increase governance, and construct strong infrastructure. Financial investments, regional collaboration, and sustainable water management techniques are the main focuses of supportive strategies. To increase the impact of peace-driven water management activities, expansive strategies focus on public awareness, technology advancements, and international collaboration. Our framework is scalable and context-sensitive and can be tailored according to the case specifics by addressing fundamental needs, offering supportive measures, and growing through global cooperation and technical advancements.

The CCT offers a methodical and flexible way to turn disputes over water into chances for peacebuilding. Both soft and hard interventions may be used. These interventions are not meant to be an exhaustive list, but they can offer some insight on what might be done in each specific case. Each case should be handled differently, considering the particular socioeconomic circumstances that are currently in place as well as the elements that are contributing to the conflict. In order to develop a balanced strategy that may optimize the potential of the water-peace nexus and transform water into a pillar for long-term peace and collaboration in conflict-prone areas, we stressed integrating hard and soft interventions. By addressing the underlying causes of water-related disputes, this all-encompassing strategy guarantees that actions are both proactive and reactive.

To conclude, we can reduce the likelihood of conflicts involving water, minimize their impact when happen, and advance regional stability over the long run by putting these multi-layered strategies into practice. Even if our framework tackles a lot of MENA necessary issues regarding water-peace transformation, there are a lot of barriers on the way, including funding, political will, and social support that need to be addressed. These limiting factors, and others, if addressed, have the potential to accelerate the adoption and implement the suggested strategies toward water-peace transformation in MENA.

The authors thank the anonymous reviewers for their constructive feedback. Our sincere appreciation also extends to CGIAR for supporting this work under the initiative ‘Fragility to Resilience in Central and West Asia and North Africa’ (F2R-CWANA).

All relevant data are available from an online repository or repositories. Aqueduct 4.0 Database: https://www.wri.org/aqueduct Water Conflict Chronology: https://www.worldwater.org/conflict/map/

The authors declare there is no conflict.