Because of rapid economic development and urbanization, water shortage has become a serious problem in the arid region of China. To investigate urban water resource security, the supply demand pressure of water resources and the urban expansion index were analyzed under different developing scenarios in this paper. Based on the economic data of Urumqi, a typical inland city in the arid area, under the present development scenario from 2011 to 2030, a system dynamics model was constructed to simulate the water resource security. The results show that there will be great influence of urban expansion on water resource security in Urumqi in the future. Water resources are projected to become increasingly scarce if the urban expansion is left unchanged in terms of population, economic growth and water-use efficiency. To find a sustainable method for water resource use, four scenarios of urban expansion were set up based on the sensitive variables. Based on comparison of water consumption under the different scenarios, the harmonize scheme for urban water resource security is the best choice for the development of Urumqi. If the impact of urban expansion on urban water resource security alleviates in the future, the main parameters would have to reach a new standard of water use. Reducing the sewage and increasing the reuse proportion of wastewater are also very important for relieving the stress of water shortage. This research can serve as a reference for water resource allocation and urban planning in arid areas.
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July 02 2015
Evaluation of urban water resource security under urban expansion using a system dynamics model Available to Purchase
Yu-Ting Chang;
Yu-Ting Chang
1Water Resources and Architectural Engineering College, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832003, China
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Hai-Long Liu;
1Water Resources and Architectural Engineering College, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832003, China
E-mail: [email protected]
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An-Ming Bao;
An-Ming Bao
2Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
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Xi Chen;
Xi Chen
2Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
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Ling Wang
Ling Wang
3College of Science, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832003, China
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Water Supply (2015) 15 (6): 1259–1274.
Article history
Received:
March 06 2015
Accepted:
June 16 2015
Citation
Yu-Ting Chang, Hai-Long Liu, An-Ming Bao, Xi Chen, Ling Wang; Evaluation of urban water resource security under urban expansion using a system dynamics model. Water Supply 1 December 2015; 15 (6): 1259–1274. doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/ws.2015.092
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