Modern distributed water-aware technologies (including, for example, greywater recycling and rainwater harvesting) enable water reuse at the scale of household or neighbourhood. Nevertheless, even though these technologies are, in some cases, economically advantageous, they have a significant handicap compared to the centralized urban water management options: it is not easy to estimate a priori the extent and the rate of the technology spread. This disadvantage is amplified in the case of additional uncertainty due to expansion of an urban area. This overall incertitude is one of the basic reasons the stakeholders involved in urban water are sceptical about the distributed technologies, even in the cases where these appear to have lower cost. In this study, we suggest a methodology that attempts to cope with this uncertainty by coupling a cellular automata (CA) and a system dynamics (SD) model. The CA model is used to create scenarios of urban expansion including the suitability of installing water-aware technologies for each new urban area. Then, the SD model is used to estimate the adoption rate of the technologies. Various scenarios based on different economic conditions and water prices are assessed. The suggested methodology is applied to an urban area in Attica, Greece.
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Research Article|
May 05 2016
An integrated system dynamics – cellular automata model for distributed water-infrastructure planning Available to Purchase
Evangelos Rozos;
1Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Heroon Polytechneiou 5, Zographou GR-157 80, Greece
E-mail: [email protected]
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David Butler;
David Butler
2Centre of Water Systems, University of Exeter, Harrison Building, North Park Road, Exeter EX4 4QF, UK
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Christos Makropoulos
Christos Makropoulos
1Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Heroon Polytechneiou 5, Zographou GR-157 80, Greece
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Water Supply (2016) 16 (6): 1519–1527.
Article history
Received:
November 16 2015
Accepted:
April 25 2016
Citation
Evangelos Rozos, David Butler, Christos Makropoulos; An integrated system dynamics – cellular automata model for distributed water-infrastructure planning. Water Supply 1 December 2016; 16 (6): 1519–1527. doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/ws.2016.080
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