Abstract

Four statistical models (linear regression, exponential regression, Poisson regression and logistic regression) applied to analyze the variables in pipe vulnerabilities with the objective of finding equations to predict probable future pipe accidents. The most effective variables in pipe failures are material, age, length, diameter and hydraulic pressure. To evaluate these models, the data collected in recent years in the water distribution network of district 1 in Tehran were used, with a total length of 582,702 m of pipes, and 48,500 consumers. The results demonstrate that among the four studied models, the logistic regression model is best able to give a good performance and is capable of predicting future accidents with a higher probability.

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