Estimation of geographical variation of cancer risks in drinking water in Japan

The cancer risks posed by ten substances in raw and purified water were estimated for each municipality in Japan to compare risks between raw and purified water, and inter-municipality. Water concentrations were estimated by use of statistical data. Assigning cancer unit risks to each substance and applying the assumption of additive toxicological effects to multiple carcinogens, total cancer risks of the waters were estimated. As a result, the geometric means of total cancer risks in raw and purified water were 1.16×10⁻⁵ and 2.18×10⁻⁵, respectively. In raw water, the contribution ratio of arsenic to total cancer risk accounted for 97%. In purified water, that of four trihalomethanes (THMs) accounted for 54%. The increase of total cancer risks in purified water was due to THMs. In regard to the geographical variation, the relationship between population size and total cancer risks were investigated. The result was that there were higher cancer risks in the big cities with the population more than a million both in raw and purified water. One plausible reason for the higher risks in purified water in the big cities is a larger chlorination dose due to the huge water supply areas. The reason for the increase in raw water remained unclear.