Abstract

From the perspective of social and economic regulation, the development trend of regional water security in different periods and under different regulation strength is evaluated by using fuzzy set pair analysis method. The results show : the degree of regional water resources security changes from insecurity in the pilot period of water-saving society construction to basic security, and then to the security in the planning period, with the enhancement of economic and social regulation. The order of importance of each index is C19 > C1 = C5 > C18 > C14 > C10 > C13 > C3 = C4 > C8 > C7 > C15 > C16 > C12 > C2 > C11 > C17 > C6 > C9, the long-term shortage of water resources is the most important factor, the contribution rate is 60%, but the index weight of economic and social coordination ability is large, and its rapid change causes the improvement of water resources security; the contradiction between the regulation intensity of social and economic indicators in the planning year and the demand for water resources is not matched, and the degree of water security is mainly restricted by the shortage of regional water resources.

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