Systems analysis – complex interactions of factors that influence the sustainability of access to improved water services in a rural municipality in South Africa

Limited understanding of the complex interactions of factors that influence the sustainability of access to improved water services poses a threat to rural livelihoods. The study assessed the complex interactions of the factors using a network approach. The assessment was to understand the complex interaction of the factors resulting from their cause-effect relationship that influence the sustainability of access to improved water services in a rural municipality of South Africa. The results highlighted that limited budget, limited or no water supply and improper operation and maintenance were critical factors resulting from the cause-effect relationship of other factors that influenced the sustainability of access to improved water services in the study area. We conclude that critical factors with a cause-effect relationship can influence the sustainability of access to improved water services. As a result, this deprives rural communities of the benefits derived from accessing improved water services. We recommend the use of the findings by the relevant authorities responsible for water services provision to inform planning, management policies to address challenges identified to contribute to sustainability of access to improved water services.


INTRODUCTION
The sustainability of access to improved water services pro- There have been efforts to employ appropriate approaches with the potential to inform interventions targeted towards the attainment of universal access to improved water services.
These efforts focused on addressing specific challenges related to IWS coverage, water service level and prioritisation of highrisk communities (Rietveld et  Molinos-Senante et al. ). These resulted in enhanced availability and access to up-to-date and reliable information as well as promoting dissemination and use of the information to inform evidence-based policies and proper planning and management of water services (Giné-Garriga et al. ). The approaches provide valuable information that contributes to the sustainability of access to improved water services. However, when the results derived from the approaches are used in isolation, they provide a somewhat compartmentalised perspective centred on specific aspects (e.g. physical accessibility or functionality) of water service provision. As a result, the approaches provide some level of understanding with regards to the sustainability of access to improved water services but do not provide a coherent understanding of the cause-effect relationship of factors that contribute to sustainability.
In an attempt to address the gap, various researchers have employed approaches that interlinked two or more categorical factors in studies that addressed issues that influenced the sustainability of access to improved water ser-  Macus & Onjala () found that the sustainability of access to improved water services depended on economic and institutional factors.
Contrary to this, Graciana & Nkambule () found that economic and institutional factors were less critical than technical and social factors. The contradicting results are indicative of the fact that the sustainability of access to improved water services can be influenced by different factors depending on the situation on the ground. For example, the improved water services can fail due to a burst pipe (technical), lack of budget to buy electricity to run water pump (economical) and water pump theft (social). Therefore, the limitation of the approaches However, they concluded that there is a need to improve the model to simplify it by lowering the number of nodes (factors) of some categories without losing critical information. They also indicated that the software used requires a highly qualified person to use it, which is a major drawback. In rural municipalities where there is limited technical capacity (Sambo et al. ), it makes the adoption of such an approach a challenge.
It is against this background that the research finds the network analysis approach suitable to capture the complex interactions of factors that influence the sustainability of access to improved water services in rural municipalities (Sambo et al. ). It is its simplicity regarding data collection and analysis that makes it adaptable in a rural setup The study sought to addresses the gap concerning the understanding of the complex interactions of factors that influence the sustainability of access to improved water services in a rural setup. The objective of the study was to assess factors that influenced the sustainability of access to improved water services using an approach the captures their complex interactions.

Study area and research approach
The study was conducted in Makhudutamaga Local Municipality, Limpopo Province, South Africa (24 44 0 5.77″S; 29 50 0 6.83″E). A mixed-methods approach was employed to investigate (qualitative method) and analyse (quantitative method) the factors influencing the sustainability of access to improved water services provided in the study area. water services that could participate in the key informant interviews. As a result, a list of 9 (nine) personnel and their contact details (emails and mobile numbers) was provided for scheduling appointments. Email and telephone calls were used to contact the identified personnel to introduce the research and request their participation in the interviews. Consequently, appointments were secured with six (6) personnel (interviewees), due to the other three (3) identified personnel being unreachable. Due to COVID-19 regulations of 2020 at the time of the study, the research was not able to conduct physical field visits to interview water service users in the study area. This is because movement was restricted to essential services, and research was not classified as essential. Hence, the interviews were conducted telephonically with the SDM personnel.
Interviewees were sent consent forms via email to give consent to participate in the interviews as per ethical research requirements. The consent form, in addition to other things, solicited consent for the interviewees to be recorded. This was for the researcher to be able to refer to the recording when analysing the exploratory qualitative -Key informant interviews were employed for data collection.
-Qualitative explanatory data was collected.

Stage 2
Data collection instrument -Semi-structured questions were developed and piloted with two people to check for relevance. -After piloting, revisions were made to the questions and then finalised.

Stage 3
Identification of stakeholders -Stakeholder selection criteria were developed.
-Stakeholders were identified from a list of personnel working at the Sekhukhune District Municipality -Infrastructure Water Services division (SDM-IWS) based on the selection criteria. -Interviews with identified personnel were scheduled using email and telephone.

Stage 4
Data collection -The interviews were conducted telephonically.
-The interviews were recorded and notes made in a journal.

Stage 5
Categorisation -Statements regarding factors that affect the sustainability of access to improved water services were identified. -The factors were coded.
-The coded factors were allocated to representative categories.
-Factors were linked based on their direct cause-effect relationship using the first (1st) principle.

Stage 6
Data analysis and display -The linked factors were loaded on computer software (Pajek ® ) for processing.
-The energy transformation technique was applied to the data to generate a network.
-Centrality approaches relating to interconnectedness and closeness were applied to the network. -Thematic communities were identified in the network (for steps taken, see Table 2).
-The final network was generated (see Figure 1).
-Density visualisation was applied to the network (see Figure 2) to identify problem areas.
information provided and not to misinterpret the information. This was critical in ensuring the validity and reliability of the data. During the interviews, semi-structured questions were asked with clarity and in a manner that was not offensive to the interviewees. In this regard, the responses provided by the interviewees were clear and addressed the questions asked. This is because the interviewees responded with an understanding of the questions asked providing relevant information. In addition to recording, the researcher also noted certain issues in a journal that were emphasised by the interviewees. This was regarded as important information to help in data analysis, especially in the identification of factors. At the end of the interviews, the interviewees were thanked for their time.
The researcher preferred to conduct physical interviews.
However, telephonic interviews and interviewing six (6) people did not compromise the quality of the data collected.
Interviewing more people could have led to the saturation of the qualitative explanatory information provided; this is supported by the experiences of Bezuidenhout et al. () and Sambo et al. (). This was evident as interviewees reported similar issues during the interviews, resulting in saturation. As a result, the data collected was sufficient to conduct a detailed analysis.
The initial aim of the study was to also interview community members in the study area. However, as mentioned, due to COVID-19 regulations at the time of the study, physical field visit were not possible. Due to time constraints, and not knowing when movement would be allowed, a decision was made to only interview personnel from the SDM as they could be contacted telephonically. It is worth noting that the researcher worked in the study area for a long time conducting research.
As a result, it is our view that the information provided by the interviewees represented the issues that are of concern to the communities. Therefore, the involvement of the community members could have resulted in saturation of information.
However, the involvement of community members can still be explored in future research.

Data analysis and network generation
The recordings and notes of the interviews were used as a reference to identify critical factors and their linkages. The researcher preferred using both manual and computerassisted methods to analyse the data collected to take advantage of their strengths to produce the best results (Welsh ). Computer software is useful in organising and grouping extensive qualitative data according to specified categories to enable data analysis (Alhojailan ). This was valuable because it improved the rigour of analytical steps for validating the data and allowed for the data to be

Stage 1
Reliability and validity -The researcher checked that the network was correctly generated.
-An analysis of the nodes and linkages was done, including the flow of the network.
-An independent person also checked the network (SDM Operation and maintenance manager).

Stage 2 Identification of thematic communities
-Thematic communities were identified based on closely related nodes using Louvain method (Blondel et al. ). -The coherence and diversity of the nodes was analysed to validate the communities.

Stage 3
Naming of the thematic communities -The thematic communities were delineated according to the clusters.
-Based on the coherence and diversity of the nodes, the thematic communities were named.

Stage 4
Review the thematic communities -The thematic communities were reviewed by repeating Stages 2, 3, and 4.

Stage 5
Finalise thematic communities -The thematic communities were finalised.
analysed based on the interactions of the factors at the level of a complex system (Alhojailan ). and 'cold' spots (problem areas) in the network. The use of density visualisation allowed for the identification and categorisation of critical problem areas in the network.

Ethical consideration
The research was approved by the University of Kwa-Zulu Natal (UKZN) ethics office to conduct key informant interviews in the study area (Protocol reference number: HSS/ 0863/018D).

RESULTS
Thirty (30)  improvements. Complementary to critical points, problem areas were identified using density visualisation of the network (see Figure 2). The red, yellow, and green colours shown in Figure 2 represent high, medium, and low-density areas, respectively. High-density areas represent critical problem areas in the network. For example, in Figure 2, the area marked (A) represents a high-density area. Furthermore, community structure method identified three (3) thematic communities (grey shaded areas) in the network (see Figure 1).
The thematic communities were identified as 'water availability,' 'institutional arrangements and funding', and 'long-term sustainability'.
The nodes representing limited budget, limited/no water supply, limited staff capacity, improper operation and maintenance (O&M), and limited specialised staff are the top five (5) critical points in the network. Limited or no water supply referring to a situation where the water supplied is not sufficient or no water is discharged from IWS as a result of other factors. The critical points are located in areas categorised as critical problem areas based on density visualisation.
For example, in Figure 2, the area marked C is a critical problem area representative of factors to do with O&M and capacity of staff responsible for O&M.
The critical problem areas are useful to bring attention to certain key nodes in the network and not just one node. However, it is important to understand the in-degree (leverage) and out-degree (KPI) the different nodes have in the network.
For example, the limited budget has the highest leverage and low KPI, and limited or no water supply has the lowest leverage, but the high KPI. This means that a limited budget causes an effect to a majority of the nodes connected to it, and limited or no water is an effect of the majority of nodes connected to it. Improper O&M also has an effect on the majority of the nodes connected to it, which include limited budget, limited staff capacity, and limited specialised staff.
Therefore, understanding the leverage and KPI of nodes helps to understand their role in the network.
The role of nodes in the network can be further understood using the BC and CC. This allows for a detailed analysis of the nodes and the network. Limited or no water supply has the highest BC and CC. This means that it has a strong influence on the flow of the network, and it is best placed compared to other nodes to be influenced or to influence other nodes. In this case, as shown by the red arrows in Figure 1, the flow of nodes leads to limited or no water supply, and it is influenced by most nodes. The limited budget also has high BC and DC, it influences the flow of the network as most of the nodes are influenced by it, and its influence evenly results in limited or no water supply; therefore, it is an influencer in the network. Based on this, the flow of the network is from right to left.
It is also important to understand the role of nodes in the linkage of thematic communities identified in the network. The nodes in the 'institutional arrangements and funding' and 'long-term sustainability' thematic communities are more closely related compared to those in the 'water availability' community. The 'water availability' thematic community is separated at a noticeable distance proposing solutions for the identified challenges was not within the scope of this study but to demonstrate the use of the network approach in bringing a coherent understanding of the factors that influence the sustainability of access to improved water services. Therefore, having a coherent understanding is a step towards ensuring sustainability.
The sub-sections below present a discussion of the critical aspects and thematic communities of the network.

Institutional arrangements and funding
The challenge in the 'institutional arrangement and funding' thematic community is the failure (delayed/abandoned) of water infrastructure projects aimed at supporting water services provision. Within the community, the challenge is due to political influence, a top-down approach, and the lack of consultation with beneficiary communities. This is because, at a political level, especially during elections, communities are promised projects that are expected to address their water challenges (Muller ). However, these projects can either be started and not completed or completed but with no water supply. Some projects fail because of 'limited budget', which is a critical factor within the 'long-term sus-

Water availability
The challenge of limited or no water supply is not only as a result of improper O&M but also to do with water availability.
The fact that the study area is located within a water-scarce district with low rainfall makes it challenging for the WSP to provide water services that meet the water demand of its residents. The annual rainfall received is not sufficient to replenish surface and groundwater sources. Many boreholes have been reported to have dried-out, and dam capacities are reducing (Sambo et al. ; SDM ). Population growth that has resulted in the expansion of residential areas in the communities has made the work of the WSP challenging. It is estimated that the annual average increases in population and households are 1.6% and 2.0%, respectively (SDM ).
The WSP is grappling to keep up with providing services; due to that, from 2008 to 2018, the number of households estimated to be using improved water services decreased by an annual average of 1.6% (SDM ). It is estimated that the combined developed and undeveloped surface and groundwater sources will not meet the water demand by 2045 (SDM ) -provided that there are no water infrastructure issues. However, 47% of the potential surface and groundwater sources have been developed, and the remainder is yet to be developed (SDM ). The interviewees indicated that the challenge is worsened by traditional authorities that do not consult them when establishing new residential areas. As a result, the new residential areas are not included in the planning of the WSP. However, the expectation once established is that the WSP should provide them with water services. This is problematic for the WSP as they are struggling to clear the water backlog, and it is increasing annually.

CONCLUSION
The network approach captured the complex interactions of factors that influence the sustainability of access to improved water services in a rural municipality. Critical factors that influence the sustainability of access to improved water services were identified as a result of quantifying their cause-effect relationship. Therefore, the analysis of the factors resulted in a coherent understanding of the factors, providing a clear picture of the context where factors interact to influence an outcome regarding IWS coverage and water service level. Limited budget, limited or no water supply and improper O&M are some of the critical factors that have a more significant influence on the sustainability of access to improved water services. However, most of the issues resulted from the limited budget. The identification of the critical factor allows for the development of targeted interventions that can result in the sustainability of access to improved water services. It is recommended that the relevant authorities responsible for water services provision adopt the findings of the study to inform planning and management as well as strategies and policies to contribute to the sustainability of access to improved water services and improvement of rural livelihoods.