Abstract

In this study, a novel method for forecasting the flood risk in a tropical country is proposed called as CIHAM-UC-FFR. The method is based on the rainfall-runoff process. The CIHAM-UC-FFR method consists of three stages: (1) calibration and validation for the effective precipitation model, called CIHAM-UC-EP model, (2) calibration of forecasting models for components of CIHAM-UC-EP model, (3) proposed model for forecasting of gridded flood risk called CIHAM-UC-FR. The CIHAM-UC-EP model has a mathematical structure derived a conceptual model obtained by applying the principle of mass conservation combined with the adapted principle of Fick's law. The CIHAM-UC-FR model is a stochastic equation based on the exceedance probability of the forecasted effective precipitation. Various scenarios are shown for a future time where the flood risk is progressively decreased as the expected life parameter of hydraulic structure is increased.

HIGHLIGHTS

  • Flood risk forecasting method.

  • Flood risk forecasting model (CIHAM-UC-FFR).

  • Effective precipitation forecasting model.

  • Effective precipitation model calibration and validation (CIHAM-UC-EP).

  • Two dimensional modeling of flood risk.

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