Abstract

Prediction of drought is important for efficient water management, as the occurrence of droughts affects large areas over a long period. According to various climate change scenarios, it is reported that in the future, Korea's climate is likely to increase in temperature with increasing rainfall. This increase in temperature will have a big impact on the evapotranspiration. The occurrence of drought begins mainly with two causes: lack of rainfall or an increase in evapotranspiration. Therefore, in this study, the impact of climate change on future droughts is revealed through the standardized precipitation index and the evaporative demand drought index. Two drought indices with different characteristics are used to examine the trend of future drought, and the SDF curve was derived to quantitatively analyze the depth of future drought. Future droughts are projected by applying future climate data generated from various climate models.

HIGHLIGHTS

  • The future drought in South Korea was analyzed using SPI and EDDI.

  • The future drought using SPI would be weakened by future precipitation increases.

  • EDDI suggests future drought prospects that have become unrealistically severe.

  • Drought monitoring needs to be developed that appropriately reflects the effects of precipitation and evapotranspiration on drought.

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