Comparative analysis of water security in Kermanshah Province cities, Iran

Water plays a pivotal role in sustainable development, serving as an essential resource for life on Earth. It is critical for maintaining ecosystems, supporting biological functions, and contributing to economic growth, poverty reduction, and environmental stability (Edwards et al. 2021). However, climate change and anthropogenic activities, particularly in agriculture and industry, have resulted in the depletion of water resources. This has led to increased water demand and growing water scarcity, especially on a per capita basis (Barati et al. 2023). In light of these challenges, a broader framework that incorporates societal dimensions is required to effectively manage water resources and inform policies.

Arid and semi-arid countries face more severe water-related challenges compared to other regions, with vulnerabilities that can cause significant socio-economic damage. By 2030, nearly half of the world's population is expected to experience water-related issues (Shan et al. 2020). Traditional methods of assessing water scarcity are insufficient for current policy and resource management needs, as they often neglect the human dimensions of water use (Pirali Zefrehei et al. 2022b; Kolahi et al. 2024a). As natural factors and human pressures – such as population growth, urbanization, and climate change – interact, a holistic understanding of the relationships between humans and water systems is crucial (Mianabadi et al. 2022; Yazdanparast et al. 2023; Kolahi et al. 2024c).

In recent years, water security has emerged as a critical issue in development discourse (Mianabadi et al. 2019; Boroumand & Kolahi 2021; Pirali Zefrehei et al. 2022a, 2022b, 2022c). This concept encompasses not only the availability and quality of water but also the societal factors that shape water access, distribution, and use (Amini et al. 2023; Kolahi et al. 2024b). Water security is inherently tied to human well-being, socio-economic development, and environmental sustainability (Staddon & James 2015). Therefore, evaluating water security requires an assessment of regional factors, including physical, social, and economic dimensions (Harmancioglu 2017; Baghanam et al. 2022; Kolahi & AzimiSeginSara 2023).

Despite its significant water resources, Iran faces critical water security challenges, largely due to unsustainable management and climate-related stressors. The country's annual average rainfall of 248 mm is far below the global average, and over the past four decades, Iran's semi-arid regions have increasingly turned into arid zones. By 2025, Iran is expected to face a severe water crisis (Beheshti 2011). Factors, such as population growth, urban expansion, and inefficient water management practices, have intensified the country's water challenges (Namdar et al. 2021). This highlights the urgent need for integrated water management strategies that address both physical and social dimensions of water security.

Numerous studies have explored water security in Iran and beyond. Zakeri et al. (2022) utilized eight key sub-indices to evaluate water security in Iran, including renewable water reserves, water efficiency, and investment in water infrastructure. Their findings emphasized the need for sustainable water management to enhance national water security. Baharshahi et al. (2021) assessed regional water security in Iran, highlighting disparities between urban and rural areas. Regions, such as the Birjand Plain, showed high levels of water insecurity, while areas, such as Deh Salam, exhibited strong water security indicators. These findings underscore the importance of localized water management strategies to mitigate water scarcity risks (Jery et al. 2023; Kolahi et al. 2023; Mehdizadeh et al. 2023; Rouhi et al. 2023, 2024).

Other regional studies have also highlighted the multifaceted nature of water security. Davoodi et al. (2021) explored the factors affecting water security in Ramjerd, Iran, identifying irrigation practices and water management education as key contributors to improved water security. Asgari (2018) examined the role of governance in Iran's water security crisis, pointing to ineffective legal frameworks and the lack of regulations as key drivers of water mismanagement. These studies illustrate the complex interactions between policy, governance, and water security.

Internationally, research has also explored water security challenges in other regions. For example, Dubey et al. (2020) emphasized the importance of equitable water distribution and government regulation in ensuring water security in India. Similarly, Hailu et al. (2022) highlighted the role of institutional capacity and public awareness in addressing household-level water insecurity in Ethiopia. In Mexico, Arreguin-Cortes et al. (2019) assessed water security across states, identifying critical areas like Sonora and Baja California as facing heightened water security risks. However, challenges related to the availability and sustainability of water resources intensified competition across sectors, and access discrepancies emerged as pivotal determinants of human resources development (Li et al. 2016; Pan et al. 2017; Ladi et al. 2021).

In the context of Kermanshah Province in Iran, water security is a growing concern. The province has experienced a 34% reduction in rainfall in 2021 compared to previous years, marking an unprecedented decline in the last half-century. This has led to a significant depletion of groundwater reserves, with aquifers declining by over 70% (Zeydalinejad & Nassery 2023). The agricultural sector, which consumes 90% of the province's water, is a major contributor to the water crisis. Inefficient water transfer systems and the lack of a water-compatible cropping pattern exacerbate the issue (Tatar et al. 2019). Unauthorized wells and deforestation further deplete water resources, necessitating a comprehensive review of water management practices.

Given these challenges, it is critical to assess the water security status of Kermanshah Province and identify regional variations in water resource management. This study aims to evaluate the physical and social dimensions of water security in Kermanshah, with the goal of providing insights for targeted policy interventions.

Goals:

• (1) To thoroughly examine the prevailing water security landscape within Kermanshah Province, Iran.

• (2) To assess the physical and social dimensions of water resources in Kermanshah Province.

• (3) To ascertain the water security status and rankings of the cities within Kermanshah Province.

• (4) To provide a foundational platform for the implementation of targeted initiatives and policies that will foster the efficient management of water resources in the region.

Hypotheses:

• (1) The water security status of cities within Kermanshah Province varies significantly due to differences in the physical and social dimensions of water resources.

• (2) Effective water resource management practices and policies can significantly improve water security in Kermanshah Province.

• (3) The agricultural sector's water consumption significantly impacts the overall water security of Kermanshah Province.

This study seeks to provide a platform for sustainable water management in Kermanshah, contributing to broader water security efforts across similar regions worldwide.

The upper Karkheh watershed, situated within the internal basin, comprises 15 primary sub-watersheds spread across the central and eastern portions of the province, encompassing the cities of Kermanshah, Islamabad Gharb, Kangavar, Javanrud (Ravansar district), Sahneh, and Harsin. The watercourses within this watershed eventually merge into the Simreh River. In contrast, the Sirvan watershed, an external basin, comprises 19 main sub-watersheds located in the northwestern part of the province. This area covers the cities of Qasr-e Shirin, Paveh, Sarpol-e Zahab, and Gilangharb, a portion of Sonqor, Javanrud (excluding the Ravansar district), and a section of Islamabad Gharb City. The rivers originating from this watershed traverse into Iraq, contributing to transnational water flows. Notably, a significant proportion (2.46%) of the province's surface waters exit its confines. Under regular climatic conditions, Kermanshah province experiences an average annual rainfall of 465 mm, accounting for approximately 7% of the nation's total surface water potential and 2% of its underground water resources.

This investigation, categorized as quantitative research, is characterized by its defined objectives, applicability, and inherent nature. The study was conducted within Kermanshah Province, aiming to evaluate the status of water security and undertake a comparative analysis across its constituent cities. In gauging the water security of these cities, the WPI indicator was employed.

Researchers have proposed various indices to assess water resource conditions across different strata, but the WPI stands alone in encompassing the multifaceted dimensions that influence water resource management and development. This index proves to be an adept tool for scrutinizing prevailing water resources and their intricate interplay with the requirements of both humanity and the environment (Yazdi et al. 2021). Originally introduced by Sullivan & Meigh (2003), this indicator enables the comparison and ranking of communities and nations, spanning the physical and socio-economic aspects interlinked with water scarcity. This framework readily lends itself to adaptation within local contexts. One of the captivating attributes of this indicator is its recognition of the direct correlation between water status and adaptive, financial, and institutional capacities. Beyond its utility for monitoring progress, this indicator also serves as a compass for pinpointing areas of utmost need and prioritizing essential initiatives (Panthi et al. 2019).

Comprising five key components pertaining to water, as initially proposed by Sullivan & Meigh (2003), the WPI encompasses resources, access, capacity, consumption, and environment. Each of these components is meticulously assessed through specific indicators and variables.

• (1) Resource component

This parameter scrutinizes the inherent accessibility to water resources within the region, a pivotal focus of our study. Elevated values assigned to this metric suggest the latent capacity for substantial exploitation of water resources. This attribute is gauged through the computation of two distinct indices: accessibility and fluctuations. In the context of this investigation, the accessibility index is ascertained by considering the variable ‘annual per capita groundwater and surface water resources’ in tandem with the ‘discharge of groundwater.’ Meanwhile, for the assessment of the fluctuations index, the ‘coefficient of rainfall variations’ serves as the measurement tool. Increased degrees of variation within this index correspond to a diminished level of certainty concerning the availability of water resources, encompassing both temporal and spatial dimensions.

• (2) Access component

The concept of accessibility highlights the impact of population pressure on available water resources. Establishing sufficient access to water resources and sanitation facilities serves as an incentive for communities to adhere more rigorously to hygiene principles while also fostering economic growth and improving overall public health. On the contrary, inadequate access to water resources not only curtails developmental progress across diverse economic sectors in varying geographical areas but also gives rise to time and financial expenditures associated with procuring water resources. These time-related expenses could otherwise be channeled into more economically productive endeavors. This facet is assessed through metrics such as the ‘number of households connected to a reliable water distribution network and encompassed by a sewage collection system’ and the ‘number of individuals covered by social insurance.’

• (3) Capacity component

This criterion underscores a community's aptitude and efficacy in managing water resources. Given the intrinsic connection between the community and water management, the recognition of social and economic capacities' significance in this realm is evident. Human, social, and economic capabilities are harnessed to evaluate this criterion. Notably, Kermanshah Province, playing a vibrant and influential role in the agricultural domain within the economic sphere, directs attention to the ‘extent of land covered by modern and semi-modern irrigation networks.’ Additionally, the ‘unemployment rate,’ functioning as an economic capacity gauge across diverse regions and offering a panoramic snapshot of the present conditions in each city, has been harnessed. In the sphere of social capacity, the ‘literacy rate’ is defined as the proportion of individuals aged six and above who are literate. A heightened literacy rate mirrors the educational attainment within each locality, signifying the ability to read, access information, comprehend water-related matters, and, in some instances, engage in critical thinking and proactive measures for water management. This component also embraces the ‘under-five mortality rate,’ interlinked with access to potable water and the overall community well-being. As the under-five mortality rate declines, human capacity expands, concurrently elevating the potential to access clean water resources.

• (4) Use component

In the consumption component, the level of water consumption and the type of water resource utilization are under consideration. In this study, the amount of water used in three indices, namely ‘domestic water consumption,’ ‘water consumption in the agricultural sector,’ and ‘water consumption in the industrial sector,’ is employed in data analysis.

• (5) Environmental component

One of the prerequisites for sustainable development is the resilience of environmental systems. Preserving environmental quality and ecosystem health holds significant importance for achieving sustainable water resource consumption. Therefore, the environmental component is calculated using indicators such as ‘protected environmental areas,’ ‘pesticide consumption rate,’ and ‘chemical fertilizer usage’ in agricultural lands. Unregulated use of pesticides and chemical fertilizers are factors that exacerbate water scarcity by polluting and rendering water resources unusable.

Data for the WPI components were sourced from a variety of institutions, sources, and databases, including the Kermanshah Agricultural Jihad Organization, Provincial Meteorological Office, Regional Water Company, Planning and Management Organization of Kermanshah Province, Provincial Registration Office, Social Welfare Organization, and the Environmental Department of Kermanshah, and also statistical yearbooks and censuses. These sources provided comprehensive statistics covering the 16 indicators used in the analysis (Table 1).

The calculation of the WPI was conducted through several steps as follows:

• (1) Selection of indicators for each component: Indicators for each component were selected through the examination of articles, reports, statistics, and previous frameworks.

• (2) Numerical calculation of each indicator: The method of calculating each indicator is provided in Table 1.

• (3) Weighting of indicators: In this study, the principal component analysis (PCA) method was used to assign weights to the indicators. PCA works by summarizing variables present in a multivariate space into a set of orthogonal components, each of which is a linear combination of the original variables. These orthogonal components are derived from the eigenvectors of the covariance matrix of the original variables' interrelationships. The main advantage of PCA is its ability to reduce multicollinearity in models, as it consolidates interrelated variables into orthogonal components, each representing a unique combination of the original variables.

• (4) Normalization of indicator scales: Due to the varying measurement units of the indicators, a normalization process was employed. To standardize them, the following equation was utilized:

  

  (1)

  where X_i represents the numerical value of each indicator, X_min signifies the minimum value of each indicator, and X_max denotes the maximum value of each indicator.

• (5) Weighted scores: After normalization, the indicators were multiplied by their respective weights.

• (6) Calculating the composite WPI for each city and province: In the sixth step, the values of sub-indicators and indicators were determined, and ultimately, the value of the composite WPI was calculated. Table 1 presents the arrangement of indicators, units and calculation methods for each indicator and their respective weights. The value of the WPI was calculated using the weighted average of the five main components and then multiplied by 100. Based on the following equation and utilizing the provided weights from Table 1, the WPI value was computed as follows:

  

  (2)

  where W_R, W_A, W_C, W_U, and W_E represent the weights of the resource, access, capacity, use, and environment components, respectively. R, A, C, U, and E represent the rescaled values of the resource, access, capacity, use, and environment indicators, respectively.

After calculating the WPI for each city, a classification of the cities was conducted to assess the level of security. In this regard, a grading approach was employed using the mean and standard deviation based on the WPI. For this purpose, the average (W̄PI) and standard deviation (σWPI) of the WPI (WPI1, WPI2, …, WPI14) were calculated and various ranges were established. The process of creating the categories and their description is presented in Table 3. This approach provides a comprehensive and nuanced assessment of water security across Kermanshah province, facilitating targeted interventions and informed decision-making.

The descriptive statistics for the WPI and its components are summarized in Table 1. The WPI values range from a minimum of 30.44 in Salas-e Babajani to a maximum of 66.25 in Kermanshah, with an average WPI of 43.84 across Kermanshah Province, signifying medium to high levels of water poverty in the region. Among the WPI components, the ‘Resources’ component exhibits the lowest mean, pointing to an unfavorable and uneven distribution of water resources throughout the province. Notably, this component shows the least variation across the studied cities, suggesting persistent resource limitations province-wide.

The ‘Capacity’ component also records a low mean, reflecting inadequate human, social, and economic capacities for effective water resource management across the urban centers. On the contrary, the ‘Environmental’ component scores the highest average, which can be attributed to favorable ecological conditions, including the presence of green spaces and the relatively low use of fertilizers and pesticides in the area. The ‘Access’ component reveals pronounced disparities in the availability of water resource infrastructure, including transportation networks and sewage systems. Lastly, the ‘Use’ component exhibits significant variation, highlighting considerable differences in per capita water consumption, especially between household and agricultural use.

Water security is essential for sustainable social and economic development. The presence of water resources is crucial for effective policymaking and development. The challenge of water scarcity, driven by population growth, economic development, increased agricultural production, and global warming, is a significant environmental issue. Water insecurity and limited water resources are influenced by both natural geographical and climatic conditions and human activities related to economic and social development. Persistent droughts and improper use of water resources in sectors such as agriculture, industry, and households have led to water scarcity in Kermanshah Province, located in western Iran. Without effective preventive actions, the province is at risk of facing severe water crises and stress.

In this study, the water security status of cities in Kermanshah Province was assessed using WPI, considering components such as water resources, capacity, use, environmental conditions, and access. The results highlighted significant differences among the cities, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive approach to assessing water security in the province.

Water resources: The study revealed that cities in Kermanshah Province face challenges due to low levels of surface and groundwater resources and significant precipitation fluctuations. This aligns with the findings by Binaian et al. (2022), who reported critical environmental water security conditions in rural districts such as Chaqanarges, Bilavar, and Dorudfaraman. To address this issue, it is crucial to optimize water resource use and implement control and management tools, particularly in the agricultural sector, as highlighted by Pirali Zefrehei et al. (2022a, 2022b, 2022c) and Ebrahimivand et al. (2023).

Capacity: The capacity component had the lowest average value, indicating a lack of necessary infrastructure and capacity for optimal water resource utilization. This finding is consistent with Binaian et al. (2018), who emphasized the importance of infrastructure resilience and coping capacity against drought in shaping social water security. Improving infrastructure, enhancing resilience, and building coping capacity are crucial steps in enhancing water security in the region.

Use: Certain cities, such as Ravansar, Kangavar, and Paveh, were found to have unfavorable statuses in the use component, placing them in the medium to weak water security category. High per capita domestic water use and excessive agricultural water consumption were identified as contributing factors. This aligns with Yazdi et al. (2021), who emphasized the importance of reducing agricultural water consumption to improve the WPI. Therefore, demand management and water consumption regulation should be prioritized.

Environment: The environmental component is critical for maintaining the health and quality of water resources. Sarpol-e Zahab faces critical conditions due to the high use of fertilizers and chemical pesticides, leading to pollutant infiltration into water resources. Insufficient water supply and transportation systems, as well as sewage discharge systems, were challenges in the access component, particularly in Sarpol-e Zahab and Dalahu. This finding is consistent with Jafari Shalamzari & Zhang (2018), who emphasized the high correlation between the access component and the WPI. To improve water access, regional planners and policymakers need to prioritize increasing access to clean water networks, particularly in urban and rural areas.

Policy implications: The literature provides valuable insights into the water security situation in Kermanshah Province. Studies by Binaian et al. (2022) and Binaian et al. (2018) highlight the critical environmental and social dimensions of water security, emphasizing the need for special attention from authorities and measures to enhance resilience and coping capacity. Research by Zarafshani & Saadvandi (2017) and Veisi et al. (2022) further emphasize the severity of agricultural water poverty in certain areas, indicating the need for improved water resource management and efficiency in agriculture. Additionally, studies by Salami & Taheri (2019) and Azadi et al. (2023) underscore the importance of social capital, risk perception, and self-efficacy in promoting adaptive behavior and addressing water scarcity challenges.

Social capital: Social capital plays a crucial role in water resource governance and management. Salari et al. (2015) assessed social monitoring in local stakeholder networks and found weak levels of social capital, with low trust and collaboration among stakeholders. Strengthening social capital and fostering stronger connections between stakeholders are essential for effective water resource management.

Strategic management: Fatemi (2020) reviewed strategies and policies for water quality management in the Gharasou River in Kermanshah. The study identified the conversion of rangelands to rain-fed lands as a primary contributor to sediment loads in hilly areas prone to soil erosion. Management strategies suggested include converting rain-fed lands to forests, prohibiting improper agricultural activities, implementing organic farming practices, investing in rangeland conservation, establishing wastewater treatment plants, employing phytoremediation techniques, managing drought vulnerability, and promoting rural community participation.

Addressing water security in Kermanshah Province requires a multifaceted approach that integrates environmental, social, and economic factors. This study's comparative analysis of water security across the cities of Kermanshah highlights the diverse challenges each region faces. The findings underscore the need for comprehensive strategies that encompass water resource optimization, capacity building, use management, environmental preservation, and equitable access to water.

Key recommendations for policymakers and stakeholders include:

• (1) Optimizing water resource utilization: Implementing effective control and management tools, particularly in the agricultural sector, to ensure sustainable use of water resources.

• (2) Improving infrastructure: Enhancing infrastructure resilience and building coping capacity to better utilize water resources and withstand environmental stresses.

• (3) Promoting sustainable farming practices: Reducing water consumption in agriculture through the adoption of efficient and sustainable practices.

• (4) Increasing access to clean water networks: Prioritizing the expansion and improvement of clean water networks, especially in urban and rural areas with inadequate access.

• (5) Fostering social capital and adaptive behavior: Strengthening social capital and fostering collaboration among stakeholders to enhance water resource governance and promote adaptive behaviors within communities.

The insights from this study provide valuable guidance for enhancing water security in Kermanshah Province. By addressing the identified challenges and implementing the recommended strategies, regional planners and policymakers can significantly improve the water security situation, ensuring sustainable social and economic development for the region.

The authors state no funding is involved.

Data cannot be made publicly available; readers should contact the corresponding author for details.

The authors declare there is no conflict.