This paper describes the development and application of uncertainty analysis to evaluate the risk of eutrophication for Te-Chi Reservoir, Taiwan. Two methods, probabilistic model and first-order analysis of uncertainty (FOAU), were used to quantify the expected variability of the total phosphorus concentration in the reservoir. Based on the load-resistance analysis, these two methods were applied and compared to calculate the risk of eutrophication for Te-Chi Reservoir. An approach is also proposed herein to evaluate the trophic state in the future. Since the trophic state for Te-Chi Reservoir is strongly dependent on hydrologic conditions, incorporating an annual ARM A inflow model with the empirical total phosphorus model developed in previous work, the trophic state in the future was investigated. The significant advantage of the proposed approach is that it provides a simplified and useful procedure to evaluate the risk of eutrophication for the reservoir in the future.

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