A mathematical in-lake water temperature model (WATEMP-Lake) was developed to investigate future responses of lake stratification and temperature profiles to future climate change due to rising concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs). The model was used to simulate daily water temperature profiles and stratification characteristics in summer (June, July, and August-JJA) for Suwa Lake in Japan as a case study. For future assessments, the model uses surface climate variables obtained from a downscaling method that was applied to the UK Hadley Centre's coupled ocean/atmosphere model forced by combined CO2 and sulphate aerosol changes (HadCM2SUL). The downscaling method employed mean sea level surface pressure to derive three airflow indices identified as: the total shear vorticity (Z) -a measure of cyclonicity -, the strength of the resultant flow (F), and the overall flow direction (D). Statistical relationships between these indices and seven daily meteorological time series were formulated to represent climate variable series at sites around Suwa Lake. These relationships were used to downscale the observed climatology of 1979-1995 and that of 2080-2099 using HadCM2SUL outputs.
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Research Article|
December 01 1998
Lake stratification and temperature profiles simulated using downscaled GCM output
Hany Hassan;
Hany Hassan
*Water Resources Engineering Department, International Division, Nippon Koei Co., Ltd., 2-5, Kojimachi, Chiyoda-Ku, Tokyo 102-0083, Japan
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Toshiya Aramaki;
Toshiya Aramaki
**Department of Urban Engineering, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1, Hongo, Bunkyo-Ku, Tokyo 113-8656, Japan
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Keisuke Hanaki;
Keisuke Hanaki
**Department of Urban Engineering, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1, Hongo, Bunkyo-Ku, Tokyo 113-8656, Japan
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Tomonori Matsuo;
Tomonori Matsuo
**Department of Urban Engineering, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1, Hongo, Bunkyo-Ku, Tokyo 113-8656, Japan
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Robert Wilby
Robert Wilby
***Division of Geography, University of Derby, Kedleston Road, Derby, DE22 1GB, UK and National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, 80303, USA
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Water Sci Technol (1998) 38 (11): 217–226.
Citation
Hany Hassan, Toshiya Aramaki, Keisuke Hanaki, Tomonori Matsuo, Robert Wilby; Lake stratification and temperature profiles simulated using downscaled GCM output. Water Sci Technol 1 December 1998; 38 (11): 217–226. doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/wst.1998.0471
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