Where is the balance between simplicity and complexity in model prediction of urban drainage structures? The calibration/verification approach to testing of model performance gives an exaggerated sense of certainty. Frequently, the model structure and the parameters are not identifiable by calibration/verification on the basis of the data series available, which generates elements of sheer guessing - unless the universality of the model is be based on induction, i.e. experience from the sum of all previous investigations. There is a need to deal more explicitly with uncertainty and to incorporate that in the design, operation and control of urban drainage structures.
Fiction and reality in the modelling world-balance between simplicity and complexity, calibration and identifiability, verification and falsification
P. Harremoës, H. Madsen; Fiction and reality in the modelling world-balance between simplicity and complexity, calibration and identifiability, verification and falsification. Water Sci Technol 1 May 1999; 39 (9): 1–8. doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/wst.1999.0428
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