Two management scenarios, the base case and the full voluntary program implementation scenarios, are simulated with the three-dimensional Chesapeake Bay estuary model package to study the improvement of dissolved oxygen (DO) over the bay in response to the reduction of nutrient loads. The base case scenario is based on the 1985 nutrient management practices and the associated loads from the watershed and airshed to the bay. The full voluntary program implementation scenario is based on an expanded non-point source and point source program applying current technologies in nutrient and sediment management. The implementation of best management practices is assumed to be by voluntary participation, encouraged by a maximum 75% cost share by the states. The ten-year average (1985-1994) total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads to the bay are reduced 40% and 47%, respectively, from the base case to the full voluntary program implementation scenario. The average annual anoxia and hypoxia volume day is reduced 62% and 42%, respectively, in the whole bay. Daily development of bottom DO in the estuary is observed from an MPEG movie. Graphics of daily DO concentration and depth profile show a significant improvement in DO under improved nutrient control.

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