The Shawan River will be the focal point in the development of the Panyu District, the southern-most district of Guangzhou City in the Guangdong Province of South China. In this research, through the use of two scenarios, the future water quality of the Shawan River was predicted with relation to changes in the water quantity utilized to fuel industrial and domestic development. The worst-case scenario used, simulated the situation if no wastewater treatment was employed, and the best-case scenario simulated the situation if 90% of the pollution load was removed. The period of simulation was for the years 2020 and 2050. Three flowrates were used in the evaluation, those of: the 90% probability of the month of lowest flow (37.2 m3/s); and the range of flowrates within the low flow period, that is, the dry season from November to February (307 and 432 m3/s). Subsequently, two countermeasures (industrial and domestic water savings) - sustainable initiatives - were nested within the two scenarios to ascertain improvements in water quality as a direct result of reduction in water quantity used. The industrial water saving countermeasure showed the greatest improvement in water quality. For the 90% probability of lowest flow for the worst-case scenario, this countermeasure equated to a 63% decrease in BOD. For the low flow period flowrates the background concentration of pollutants was more influential than improvements imparted by the countermeasures to the future predicted water quality. It was recommended that industrial countermeasures be used that take into account water saving, water recycling, the use of brackish water for cooling, and the implementation of economic pricing initiatives. Also that inter-district governmental policy initiatives be introduced to prevent upstream pollution from influencing downstream proposals, further enhancing sustainable water management of the Shawan River.

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