This study aims at the quantification of possible future nutrient loads into Lake Peipsi/Chudskoe under different economic development scenarios. This drainage basin is on the borders of Russia, Estonia and Latvia. The sudden disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991 caused a collapse of agricultural economy, and consequently, a substantial decrease of diffuse and point-source nutrient emissions. For the future, uncertainties about economic development and the priorities that will be set for this region make it difficult to assess the consequences for river water quality and nutrient loads into the lake. We applied five integrated scenarios of future development of this transboundary region for the next twelve to fifteen years. Each scenario consists of a qualitative story line, which was translated into quantitative changes in the input variables for a geographical information system based nutrient transport model. This model calculates nutrient emissions, as well as transport and retention and the resulting nutrient loads into the lake. The model results show that the effects of the different development scenarios on nutrient loads are relatively limited over a time span of about 15 years. In general, a further reduction of nutrient loads is expected, except for a fast economic development scenario.
Skip Nav Destination
Article navigation
Research Article|
February 01 2005
GIS-based quantification of future nutrient loads into Lake Peipsi/Chudskoe using qualitative regional development scenarios
D.S.J. Mourad;
*Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, P.O. Box 80115, 3508 TC Utrecht, The Netherlands
E-mail: [email protected]
Search for other works by this author on:
M. Van der Perk;
M. Van der Perk
*Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, P.O. Box 80115, 3508 TC Utrecht, The Netherlands
Search for other works by this author on:
G.D. Gooch;
G.D. Gooch
**Department of Management and Economics, Linköping University, 58183 Linköping, Sweden
Search for other works by this author on:
E. Loigu;
E. Loigu
***Department of Environmental Engineering, Tallinn Technical University, Järvevana tee 5, 19086 Tallinn, Estonia
Search for other works by this author on:
K. Piirimäe;
K. Piirimäe
***Department of Environmental Engineering, Tallinn Technical University, Järvevana tee 5, 19086 Tallinn, Estonia
Search for other works by this author on:
P. Stålnacke
P. Stålnacke
****Jordforsk (Norwegian Centre for Environmental Research), Frederik A. Dahls vei 20, 1432 Ås, Norway
Search for other works by this author on:
Water Sci Technol (2005) 51 (3-4): 355–363.
Citation
D.S.J. Mourad, M. Van der Perk, G.D. Gooch, E. Loigu, K. Piirimäe, P. Stålnacke; GIS-based quantification of future nutrient loads into Lake Peipsi/Chudskoe using qualitative regional development scenarios. Water Sci Technol 1 February 2005; 51 (3-4): 355–363. doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/wst.2005.0610
Download citation file:
Sign in
Don't already have an account? Register
Client Account
You could not be signed in. Please check your email address / username and password and try again.
Could not validate captcha. Please try again.
eBook
Pay-Per-View Access
$38.00