Screening level analysis for monitoring pesticide in river water using a hydrological diffuse pollution model with limited input data

To predict rice-farming pesticide concentrations in river water with imprecise model inputs for screening-level analysis, a basin-scale runoff model was developed. The Monte Carlo method was applied to create estimates of input data regarding agricultural work schedules and parameters for pesticide decomposition and sorption in solids and water. The prediction accuracy of the model was evaluated when used with non-optimised pesticide parameters; the model was calibrated using hydrological data alone without reference to observed pesticide concentration data. Overall, predictions for the pesticide concentrations were successful within order-of-magnitude accuracy. The pesticide rankings according to the predicted concentration roughly agreed with those observed. The success of screening-level analysis indicates that the model prediction can help in selection of pesticides to be monitored and in determining the monitoring schedule for the river basin.