The climatic conditions in Southern Germany have changed noticeably in the 20th century, especially during the last three decades. Both in specific regions and interannually, the trends found exceed the natural margins of deviation previously known from long measurement series for some measured quantities. The mean and also the extreme floods are expected to increase significantly, although the results of the model chain global model–regional climate models–water balance models are still uncertain. As a precaution an adaptation strategy has been developed for the field of flood protection which takes into consideration the possible development for the next decades and also takes into account the uncertainties.

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