Comparative uncertainty analysis of copper loads in stormwater systems using GLUE and grey-box modeling

In this paper two attempts to assess the uncertainty involved with model predictions of copper loads from stormwater systems are made. In the first attempt, the GLUE methodology is applied to derive model parameter sets that result in model outputs encompassing a significant number of the measurements. In the second attempt the conceptual model is reformulated to a grey-box model followed by parameter estimation. Given data from an extensive measurement campaign, the two methods suggest that the output of the stormwater pollution model is associated with significant uncertainty. With the proposed model and input data, the GLUE analysis show that the total sampled copper mass can be predicted within a range of ±50% of the median value (385 g), whereas the grey-box analysis showed a prediction uncertainty of less than ±30%. Future work will clarify the pros and cons of the two methods and furthermore explore to what extent the estimation can be improved by modifying the underlying accumulation-washout model.