Abstract

The planning and scheduling of maintenance operations of large conventional sewer systems generate a complex decision-making environment due to the difficulty in the collection and analysis of the spatiotemporal information about the operational and structural condition of their components (e.g. pipes, gully pots and manholes). As such, water utilities generally carry out these operations following a corrective approach. This paper studies the impact of the spatiotemporal correlation between these failure events using Log-Gaussian Cox Process (LGCP) models. In addition, the association of failure events to physical and environmental covariates was assessed. The proposed methods were applied to analyze sediment-related blockages in the sewer system of an operative zone in Bogotá (Colombia). The results of this research allowed the identification of significant covariates that were further used to model spatiotemporal clusters with high sediment-related failure risk in sewer systems. The LGCP model proved to be more accurate in comparison to those models that build upon a fundamental assumption that a failure is equally likely to occur at any time regardless of the state of the system and the system's history of failures (i.e., a homogeneous Poisson process model).

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