A scenario analysis was performed of alternative methods of pulp production in Finland up to the year 2010. The analysis included the effects of changing to totally chlorine-free bleaching of kraft pulp (TCF pulp), closure of the water cycles at kraft mill bleaching plants, and increased use of recycled fibre in papermaking. Scenarios for total figures in Finland were evaluated anticipating four different courses in the use of new technology and the increasing use of waste paper and TCF pulp.

The results revealed that the high investment rate in effluent management and air pollution control during the 80s and 90s will result in a very significant decline in pollution from the Finnish forest industry before the year 2000. The technology needed to eliminate AOX would be very costly and would have no significant effect on pollution parameters other than AOX. Closing the water cycles at kraft mill bleaching plants would cut discharges of dissolved substances and nutrients from the pulp and paper industry to at most half of those achievable with external methods.