Water-quality models that are simple yet sound and reliable and that correspond to water-quality criteria that include magnitude, frequency, and duration components are needed. Monte Carlo models are developed on the basis of available flow and water-quality data and a deterministic water-quality model appropriate for the problem at hand and the data available. Monte Carlo models yield time series and probability distributions of constituents of interest in conformance with water-quality criteria. The application of a Monte Carlo model to the probabilistic evaluation of ammonia toxicity in Milwaukee's Outer Harbor is presented here. Under typical operating conditions for the Jones Island Wastewater Treatment Plant, ammonia toxicity was found to not be a problem for the Outer Harbor. The Monte Carlo model then was used to determine effluent limits that would meet the ammonia toxicity criteria.

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