ABSTRACT
Urban flooding intensifies with escalating urbanization. This study focuses on Xiong'er river as the study area and couples a 1D/2D urban flooding model using InfoWorks ICM (Integrated Catchment Modeling). Ten scenarios are set respectively with a rainfall return period of 5a 10a, 20a, 50a, and 100a, alongside rainfall durations of 1 and 24 h. Subsequently, the H-V (hazard–vulnerability) method was applied to evaluate urban flooding risk. Three indicators were selected for each of hazard factors and vulnerability factors. The relative weight values of each indicator factor were calculated using the AHP method. The result shows that (1) flood depth, rate, and duration escalate with longer rainfall return periods, yet decrease as the duration of rainfall increases; (2) as the rainfall return period lengthens, the proportion of node overflow rises, whereas it diminishes with longer rainfall durations, leading to an overall overloaded state in the pipeline network; and (3) the distribution in the research area is mainly low-risk areas, with very few extremely high-risk. Medium to high-risk areas are mainly distributed on both sides of the river, in densely built and low-lying urban areas. This study demonstrates that the model can accurately simulate urban flooding and provide insights for flood analyses in comparable regions.
HIGHLIGHTS
Ten different scenarios were designed based on different rainfall return periods and rainfall durations.
Flood flow velocity, flood duration, and flood depth were analyzed.
Integration of model data with comprehensive risk assessment.
The flood risk indicators were categorized by the AHP method.
The H-V (hazard–vulnerability) method was used to calculate the flood risk.
INTRODUCTION
In recent years, characterized by rapid growth in urban areas, there has been a notable increase in incidents of flooding in cities worldwide. This trend is especially evident in developing countries and emerging economies (Roy et al. 2021; Lin et al. 2022; Yavari et al. 2022). The intricate interaction between urbanization, land use transformations, and climate changes has markedly influenced the dynamics of the water cycle in urban areas. With the ongoing acceleration of urbanization, accurately evaluating urban flooding risk areas and conducting detailed assessments of flood risks are crucial measures in preventing and reducing the detrimental impacts of such disasters. Enhancing the city's resilience against flood risk has become a very crucial part.
Urban development is the main trend of future human society development (Liao 2012). Under its process, the condition of urban flooding is being changed. After a severe urban flooding incident occurs, it will result in a large number of loss of facilities and transportation paralysis (Yang et al. 2017). With the advancement of technology, hydraulic models are more and more widely used for urban flooding risk assessment, often with software such as Mike and InfoWorks ICM (Cheng et al. 2017; Xu et al. 2022). For example, Sarkar et al. (2021) analyzed the urban flood and pipe network drainage capacity of Khulna City, Bangladesh based on Mike Urban to construct three return period design precipitation scenarios of 5, 50, and 100 years. Sidek et al. (2021) employed the InfoWorks ICM model to develop an urban flooding model, focusing on the Peshawar catchment area. They utilized the interferometric synthetic aperture radar (IFSAR) technique for acquiring high-resolution digital terrain model (DTM) data and conducted flood risk analysis for various rainfall return period scenarios. Tabari et al. (2021) designed four rainfall return periods of 2a, 10a, 20a, and 50a as inputs to the InfoWorks ICM hydrodynamic model to quantitatively analyze the impacts of human-made climatic influences on urban rainfall flooding. Ferrans & Temprano (2023) assessed the impact of urbanization on watersheds based on a storm water management model (SWMM) using meteorological data from Spanish and Colombian cities and they concluded that urbanization has a significant impact on variables such as runoff, peak flows, and pollutant loads.
The definition of flood risk is generally considered as a combination of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. In recent years, many scholars have begun to evaluate flood risk through a combination of hydrological methods and models (Salman & Li 2018; Zhang et al. 2020; Islam et al. 2021; Lei et al. 2021; Tomar et al. 2021), such as Liu et al. (2021a) developed a method integrating an improved k-nearest neighbor (kNN) algorithm with remote sensing and GIS to assess flood risks in urban tourist areas, tested in Shanghai. Xie et al. (2022) crafted a detailed framework for assessing the risk of urban flood disasters in Guangzhou, incorporating the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) runoff generation model and GIS technology to simulate urban flood under various storm conditions. Abdrabo et al. (2020) discussed a novel method for mapping urban flooding risks in areas without prior data. It integrates remote sensing, GIS, 2D rainfall-runoff-inundation modeling, and multi-criteria decision-making to develop detailed flood risk maps. Cardoso et al. (2020) explored flood risk management in urban areas near estuaries. It focuses on the Dafundo catchment in Portugal and uses a coupled 1D/2D stormwater model for flood hazard assessment. The study integrates various data sources and modeling techniques, including estuary-related and urban drainage models, to evaluate flood risks. Wang et al. (2021) conducted flood simulations and modeling for Nanjing, China, under different flood return periods and analyzed flood risk propagation in urban areas using a modified Susceptible Infected Recovered (SIR) model.
Several studies have demonstrated the effectiveness of combining simulation methods and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) for flood risk analysis. Duan et al. (2022) utilized multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and geographic information system (GIS) to assess urban flood risk. AHP is used for calculating weights, and the research highlights the importance of integrating human factors and spatial elements in urban flood risk assessment. Boulomytis et al. (2019) focused on identifying key criteria affecting flood susceptibility in unmonitored basins. Utilizing the Delphi method for expert-based surveys and the AHP for criteria weighting, the research aims to enhance flood susceptibility evaluation in the coastal plains of the Juqueriquere river basin, Brazil. Karymbalis et al. (2021) focused on the Megalo Rema river basin, the authors present a GIS-based approach combining MCDA and AHP to assess flood hazards, using factors like slope, proximity to stream channels, land cover, elevation, and geological formations.
In recent years, heavy rainfall and flooding have occurred frequently in Zhengzhou City, especially the ‘7-20’ Zhengzhou very heavy rainfall event, a natural disaster of particular significance that occurred from 17 to 23 July 2021. This exceptionally significant natural disaster caused major casualties and property losses, affecting 14,786,000 people, with 398 dead and missing as a result of the disaster, and the direct economic losses amounted to 40.9 billion yuan (Jiahong et al. 2023). This is the most typical rainfall scenario that has occurred in recent years, so it is particularly important to carry out a detailed risk assessment for each area of Zhengzhou City, the Xiong'er River area is situated in the center of Zhengzhou City, modeling is one way to enhance the study of this place and flood risk assessment can provide technical support for flood prevention and mitigation in this area.
Therefore, this article selects the Xiong'er River area as the research area, using the InfoWorks ICM model to conduct flood risk assessment and analysis by the H-V (hazard–vulnerability) method. The aim of this research is to (1) fully analyze the hydrological dynamics between urban drainage systems and surface runoff using ICM models, with the goal of developing an urban flooding model and examining the mechanisms of urban flood occurrences; (2) set different design rainfall scenarios, analyze the changes in runoff coefficient and flood depth under different return period design storms based on rainfall intensity formula, and then conduct a more detailed analysis of the pipe network's overflow distribution and drainage capacity; (3) combine the actual situation in the study area to develop an urban flooding risk assessment system and analyze the risk of urban flooding.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
Study area
Zhengzhou City is located in the north-central part of Henan Province, at the boundary between the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River, covering a total area of 7,567 km2. The city's terrain generally slopes from southwest to northeast, with elevations mostly below 284 m and the lowest point at just 79 m. It has a temperate continental monsoon climate. Zhengzhou contains a total of 124 rivers of various sizes, straddling the basins of the Yellow River and the Huai River. The current status of Zhengzhou's area primarily adopts a separate system for stormwater and sewage. The main urban area's drainage setup includes stormwater drains, system stormwater pump stations, and overpass and tunnel stormwater pump stations.
The Xiong'er River flows through the districts of Erqi, Guancheng, and Jinshui. It spans a total length of 21.4 km. Above the Doufuzhai, it branches into two tributaries: the eastern branch extends 3.15 km from Hanghai Road to Doufuzhai and the western branch stretches 2.3 km from Jingguang Road to Doufuzhai. The mainstream runs 11.9 km from Doufuzhai to its confluence with Dongfeng Canal. The flood prevention standard is set at a 50a return period, and its drainage capacity is designed for a 5a return period.
Research methodology
InfoWorks ICM hydrodynamic modeling
(1) ICM introduction
InfoWorks ICM is a software that is capable of simulating urban watershed stormwater systems by integrating river models with urban drainage pipe network models (Cheng et al. 2017; Li et al. 2022a). Its key feature lies in its ability to realistically simulate the interaction between surface water bodies and underground drainage pipe systems. This tool primarily encompasses thorough simulation and analysis of four key modules in urban watershed stormwater systems: rainfall-runoff, pipe networks, river, and 2D urban flooding inundation (Xu & Cheng 2019).
Model theory
(1) Rainfall-runoff
The rainfall module generates rainfall events mainly through two methods. One method involves generating rainfall events based on observed rainfall data, while the other involves summarizing rainfall patterns from extensive observed data to create designed rainfall events. Observed rainfall events are primarily used for calibrating model parameters. The other method involves analyzing a large amount of observed data to derive the relationship between rainfall intensity, duration, and return period.
The variables in the equation are as follows: i represents instantaneous rainfall intensity (mm/min); tb represents the time before peak (min); ta represents the time after peak (min); A, c, b, and n are parameters of the storm intensity formula; and r represents rain peak position coefficient.
(2) Pipe network convergence
(3) River confluence
(4) Surface runoff generation
After being subjected to interception, depression storage, and infiltration through the ground, precipitation is directly transformed into surface runoff, which flows into stormwater pipes. This runoff is conveyed through the underground pipe network, auxiliary facilities, and overflow outlets, eventually discharging into receiving water bodies. InfoWorks ICM employs a distributed model to simulate the rainfall-runoff process, performing runoff calculations based on the detailed spatial delineation of sub-catchments and the runoff characteristics of different surface compositions.
(5) 2D surface diffusion
Data collection and manipulation
Basis of data collection
This paper's model construction is based on InfoWorks ICM models. Therefore, in the modeling process, it is necessary to meet the data requirements of the 1D/2D model, which mainly includes the rainwater and drainage pipeline network, rivers, roads, buildings, digital elevation, and remote sensing image data in the study area.
(1) Rainwater and drainage pipeline network data: The rainwater and drainage pipeline network data used in this paper are provided by Zhengzhou City Planning, Survey, Design and Research Institute.
(2) River, road, and building data: In the simulation process, consideration must be given to the 1D hydrodynamic process of the river. Therefore, information on the river's centerline, cross-sectional shape, and roughness is required, as well as data on roads and buildings. These data can be obtained from Li et al.’s (2023) land use date and OpenStreetMap (https://www.openstreetmap.org/).
(3) Digital elevation data: This paper uses 5 m resolution digital elevation model (DEM) data provided by the Zhengzhou City Surveying and Mapping Department as the elevation data. The elevation of the research area is corrected by combining DEM, road, and building data to better reflect the actual situation during the simulation of flooding.
(4) Remote sensing image data: This paper uses remote sensing images provided by Google Earth to analyze the research area more clearly and to calibrate relevant data.
Basis of data processing
(1) Uniform coordinate system
Due to the diversity of data sources, different data may use different coordinate systems. Therefore, it is necessary to project all raster and vector data to ensure consistency. For this purpose, we choose WGS84 UTM 49N with the central meridian of 113° as the projection coordinate system for all data. This will ensure the use of the same spatial reference system in spatial analysis and integration, ensuring consistency and accuracy of the data.
(2) Simplification of rainwater pipe network
The rainwater pipe network data in the original dataset is abundant and intricate, which is not conducive to subsequent modeling and analysis. Therefore, it is necessary to simplify the rainwater pipe network data by retaining key information while reducing redundant information. In this study, some of the main rainwater pipe networks were retained based on the actual distribution of the pipe network, and some branches merged as well. Inspection wells, pumping stations, and discharge outlets in reality were generalized as nodes in the model, and node types, parameters, and properties were set based on model needs.
(3) Correction of elevation data based on buildings and roads
To illustrate the actual flow of floods on the underlying surface, the elevation values of the DEM data need to be lowered in road areas to reflect the height of the road. Therefore, to better reflect the actual flow of floods on the underlying surface during flood simulation, the elevation data was modified by overlaying building and road data. The elevation values of the DEM data were lowered by 15 cm in road areas to reflect the actual terrain.
(4) Topological check of rainwater pipeline network
To ensure the completeness and correctness of the data of the rainwater pipeline network, a topological check is required. Topological check is a method based on graphic analysis and data matching, which aims to identify and correct possible data errors and defects and ensure the correct connection relationship of pipeline network lines. In addition, we need to check whether the starting point and ending point of each pipeline are correct and whether there are topological errors such as intersections or overlaps. Finally, we also need to check whether the position and attributes of each node are correct to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the pipeline network data.
(5) Accuracy and reliability of the interpolation of elevation data in the rainwater pipeline network
In the process of topological check, we need to interpolate the missing elevation data in the pipeline network. To achieve this, we use calibrated elevation data and the ‘Extract Values to Points’ tool in ArcGIS to extract the elevation values of each node from the DEM. For the parts where the upper and lower bottom elevations of the pipeline network are missing, we obtain the elevation information from the corresponding position of the node to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the interpolation results.
(6) Catchment delineation
The goal of catchment delineation is to allocate surface runoff to corresponding drainage nodes of the drainage network according to the actual converging situation of the drainage basin, to better distribute the inflow of the network system by the actual situation. Considering factors such as the large area of the study area and the less obvious terrain changes in the urban area, this paper uses the Thiessen polygon method to divide the catchment based on the distribution of nodes, and then adjust them manually, resulting in a total of 232 catchments.
The delineation of sub-catchments directly impacts the analysis of runoff generation, concentration, and the distribution of water in drainage networks. The land use significantly affects rainwater infiltration and runoff, and requires InfoWorks ICM's Area Take Off (ATO) tool to identify the type and proportion of each productive surface in each sub-catchment area. The identified runoff-generating surfaces are buildings, grassland, forest, road, and undeveloped land, with forest and grassland modeled using the Horton infiltration model due to their permeability. Other surfaces are analyzed using a fixed proportion runoff model (Song et al. 2021).
(7) 2D grid division
The 2D grid is an important part of the model for conducting 2D simulations, and its quality and accuracy have an important impact on the simulation results. Irregular grids are used to better simulate the complex terrain and fluid motion in the study area. This can better reflect the role of buildings in obstructing flood flow.
A 2D grid covering the study area is created within the ground model's limits and meshed using Delaunay triangulation in InfoWorks ICM. Buildings are marked as blank areas to exclude them from runoff calculations. The mesh parameters include a maximum triangle area of 100 m2, a minimum of 25 m2, a maximum elevation change of 1 m, a minimum angle of 25°, and a default roughness of 0.0125, ensuring precise flood simulation.
Parameter validation
In this study area, according to the information provided by Zhengzhou Survey and Design Institute, the phenomenon of flood once occurred at these points, but the specific flood scenario is not clear, and all the data available for reference are shown in Table 1. The comparison results show that the constructed model can basically reflect the inundation situation in the study area.
Number . | Spot . | Flood depth (m) . | Simulated value (m) . |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Flood-prone spots in Longhai Road area, Jingguang Road | – | 0.104 |
2 | Chengdong Road underpass the Longhai Railway at a flood-prone point | – | 0.233 |
3 | Jinshui Road (Future Road to Zhongzhou Avenue) waterlogging-prone point | 0.2–0.3 | 0.227 |
4 | Dongming Road Zhengbian Road waterlogging point | 0.15–0.3 | 0.204 |
5 | Xinzheng Road underpass the Longhai Railway at flood-prone points | About 60 cm | 0.547 |
Number . | Spot . | Flood depth (m) . | Simulated value (m) . |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Flood-prone spots in Longhai Road area, Jingguang Road | – | 0.104 |
2 | Chengdong Road underpass the Longhai Railway at a flood-prone point | – | 0.233 |
3 | Jinshui Road (Future Road to Zhongzhou Avenue) waterlogging-prone point | 0.2–0.3 | 0.227 |
4 | Dongming Road Zhengbian Road waterlogging point | 0.15–0.3 | 0.204 |
5 | Xinzheng Road underpass the Longhai Railway at flood-prone points | About 60 cm | 0.547 |
Parameter validation should be selected to compare with the actual measured rainstorm situation, and the results show that the data are good and the simulation results are reliable (Gong et al. 2018). The setting of the model parameters involves several parameters, including the characteristic width, the slope of the catchment area, the impervious area ratio, the impervious area, and so on. Among them, the parameters of feature width, catchment slope, impervious area ratio, and impervious area are calculated and set according to the measured data, while the other parameters are set by referring to the relevant design information and research results (Rabori & Ghazavi 2018; Shao & Liu 2018; Guo et al. 2022; Zhang et al. 2022). Specific parameters can be seen in Table 2.
Flow surface number . | Description . | Meter parameters . | Radial flow type . | Type of initial loss . | Initial loss value (m) . | Fixed runoff coefficient . |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10 | Road | 0.012 | Fixed | Slope | 0.000071 | 0.9 |
20 | Buildings | 0.012 | Fixed | Abs | 0.000071 | 0.85 |
21 | Forest | 0.2 | Horton | Abs | 0.002 | |
22 | Grassland | 0.2 | Horton | Abs | 0.002 | |
30 | Undeveloped land | 0.012 | Fixed | Slope | 0.000071 | 0.45 |
Flow surface number . | Description . | Meter parameters . | Radial flow type . | Type of initial loss . | Initial loss value (m) . | Fixed runoff coefficient . |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10 | Road | 0.012 | Fixed | Slope | 0.000071 | 0.9 |
20 | Buildings | 0.012 | Fixed | Abs | 0.000071 | 0.85 |
21 | Forest | 0.2 | Horton | Abs | 0.002 | |
22 | Grassland | 0.2 | Horton | Abs | 0.002 | |
30 | Undeveloped land | 0.012 | Fixed | Slope | 0.000071 | 0.45 |
Scenario setting
The Zhengzhou extreme rainfall event, which struck the city on 20 July 2021, was a major flood disaster triggered by unprecedented downpours, leading to severe urban flood, river floods, and landslides. This catastrophic natural disaster resulted in significant casualties and property damage, marking the most characteristic rainfall scenario in recent years. So in modeling rainfall over a 24 h period, the ‘7-20’ Zhengzhou very heavy rainfall event was chosen as a typical scenario, with the peak 2-h rainfall intensity being redistributed based on the Chicago method.
Flood risk analysis
Assessing urban flooding risks is a crucial approach to disaster prevention. Accurately evaluating the potential risks of urban flooding and studying its mechanisms can provide early warning systems and promote scientific decision-making. Currently, there are three main methods used for urban flooding risk assessment: an analysis based on historical disaster statistics, evaluation using indicator systems, and scenario simulation methods.
According to scenario simulation results, this article selects several flood risk factors and utilizes the H-V method (a combination of hazard and vulnerability assessments using the AHP) to construct a comprehensive evaluation system (Li et al. 2022b; Gaya & Cherrared 2023; Guoyi et al. 2023). By calculating the weights of flood hazard factors and flood vulnerability factors, and overlaying various flood impact factors, then the flood risk levels in different areas of the study zone are determined. The maximum flood depth, maximum flow speed, and maximum duration are chosen as flood hazard factors for calculating flood risk. Population, gross domestic product (GDP), and land use were selected as flood vulnerability factors. The selected indicators can be seen in Tables 3 and 4.
Comparison matrix for hazard indicators . | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Index layer . | Flood depth . | Depth velocity . | Duration . | Relative weight . |
Flood depth | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.625 |
Depth velocity | 0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0.238 |
Duration | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1 | 0.136 |
Comparison matrix for vulnerability indicators . | ||||
Index layer . | Population . | GDP . | Land use . | Relative weight . |
Population | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.528 |
GDP | 0.5 | 1 | 3 | 0.333 |
Land use | 0.33 | 0.33 | 1 | 0.14 |
Comparison matrix for hazard indicators . | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Index layer . | Flood depth . | Depth velocity . | Duration . | Relative weight . |
Flood depth | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.625 |
Depth velocity | 0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0.238 |
Duration | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1 | 0.136 |
Comparison matrix for vulnerability indicators . | ||||
Index layer . | Population . | GDP . | Land use . | Relative weight . |
Population | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.528 |
GDP | 0.5 | 1 | 3 | 0.333 |
Land use | 0.33 | 0.33 | 1 | 0.14 |
Note: Consistent ratio (CR) = 0.016 < 0.1, passing the consistency verification; 0.046 < 0.1, passing the consistency verification.
Index layer . | Buildings . | Grassland . | Forest . | Road . | Undeveloped land . | Relative weight . |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Buildings | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 0.432 |
Grassland | 1/2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0.278 |
Forest | 1/3 | 1/2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0.173 |
Road | 1/5 | 1/4 | 1/3 | 1 | 3 | 0.079 |
Undeveloped land | 1/8 | 1/7 | 1/5 | 1/3 | 1 | 0.038 |
Index layer . | Buildings . | Grassland . | Forest . | Road . | Undeveloped land . | Relative weight . |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Buildings | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 0.432 |
Grassland | 1/2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0.278 |
Forest | 1/3 | 1/2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0.173 |
Road | 1/5 | 1/4 | 1/3 | 1 | 3 | 0.079 |
Undeveloped land | 1/8 | 1/7 | 1/5 | 1/3 | 1 | 0.038 |
Note: CR = 0.024 < 0.1, passing the consistency verification.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Analysis of simulation results
Flood velocity
Flow rate (m/s) . | 5a . | 10a . | 20a . | 50a . | 100a . | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 h . | 24 h . | 1 h . | 24 h . | 1 h . | 24 h . | 1 h . | 24 h . | 1 h . | 24 h . | |
0.0–0.5 | 92.29% | 99.07% | 87.06% | 97.95% | 82.16% | 96.54% | 76.06% | 94.03% | 71.80% | 91.71% |
0.5–1.5 | 7.70% | 0.93% | 12.91% | 2.05% | 17.73% | 3.46% | 23.63% | 5.97% | 27.63% | 8.28% |
>1.5 | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.10% | 0.00% | 0.31% | 0.00% | 0.57% | 0.01% |
Flow rate (m/s) . | 5a . | 10a . | 20a . | 50a . | 100a . | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 h . | 24 h . | 1 h . | 24 h . | 1 h . | 24 h . | 1 h . | 24 h . | 1 h . | 24 h . | |
0.0–0.5 | 92.29% | 99.07% | 87.06% | 97.95% | 82.16% | 96.54% | 76.06% | 94.03% | 71.80% | 91.71% |
0.5–1.5 | 7.70% | 0.93% | 12.91% | 2.05% | 17.73% | 3.46% | 23.63% | 5.97% | 27.63% | 8.28% |
>1.5 | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.10% | 0.00% | 0.31% | 0.00% | 0.57% | 0.01% |
These outcomes suggest that within the study area, flood velocity typically remains within the range of 0–0.5 m/s in different return periods. This implies that, for the majority of areas, flood velocity does not significantly hinder pedestrian mobility. With an increase in return periods, flood velocity shows an ascending trend, while they demonstrate a descending trend with an increase in rainfall duration. Noteworthy in the observation is that areas with higher flood velocity are predominantly situated in the center of the study area and near the densely populated and high GDP regions. The magnitude of flood discharge directly impacts the movement and safety of individual's lives and property within the study area.
Flood duration
The duration of flood water accumulation has a direct impact on the extent of inundation of land and buildings by floodwaters. High rainfall events introduce a complex scenario where riverine systems may exceed their capacity, leading to an overflow that challenges the urban drainage infrastructure. This condition can cause a reversal of flow, with rivers inundating the urban drainage networks. In such cases, the riverine system's ability to accommodate and channel excess water becomes a decisive factor in flood duration and intensity. It is useful in assessing the extent of possible damages and impacts, and provides a basis for the development of risk management strategies. This leads to more effective measures to mitigate the damage and impacts of flooding.
For precisely analyzing the inundation data, inundation duration are segmented into five distinct intervals: hourly divisions from 0 to 4 h and exceeding 4 h. This categorization is grounded on the differential impact of varying flood duration on urban mobility and property safety. Inundation lasting less than 2 h is generally observed to have minimal disruption on routine pedestrian and vehicular movement. Duration exceeding 4 h signifies a critical threshold where the impact escalates, severely hindering transportation and daily activities, and posing a significant threat to property safety.
Flood duration (h) . | (0–1) . | (1–2) . | (2–3) . | (3–4) . | > 4 . | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5a | 1 h | 2,521.55 | 545.66 | 284.91 | 155.07 | 698.72 |
24 h | 3,460.50 | 237.18 | 113.54 | 86.74 | 307.95 | |
10a | 1 h | 2,172.42 | 595.84 | 366.04 | 201.51 | 870.08 |
24 h | 3,095.83 | 326.09 | 162.77 | 112.61 | 508.61 | |
20a | 1 h | 1,925.05 | 599.87 | 400.90 | 228.78 | 1,051.32 |
24 h | 2,786.43 | 408.32 | 191.68 | 124.90 | 694.57 | |
50a | 1 h | 1,695.41 | 582.85 | 426.15 | 256.33 | 1,245.15 |
24 h | 2,437.07 | 478.57 | 250.86 | 146.26 | 893.15 | |
100a | 1 h | 1,580.13 | 574.92 | 428.07 | 276.13 | 1,346.66 |
24 h | 2,233.36 | 493.05 | 282.55 | 165.55 | 1,031.40 |
Flood duration (h) . | (0–1) . | (1–2) . | (2–3) . | (3–4) . | > 4 . | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5a | 1 h | 2,521.55 | 545.66 | 284.91 | 155.07 | 698.72 |
24 h | 3,460.50 | 237.18 | 113.54 | 86.74 | 307.95 | |
10a | 1 h | 2,172.42 | 595.84 | 366.04 | 201.51 | 870.08 |
24 h | 3,095.83 | 326.09 | 162.77 | 112.61 | 508.61 | |
20a | 1 h | 1,925.05 | 599.87 | 400.90 | 228.78 | 1,051.32 |
24 h | 2,786.43 | 408.32 | 191.68 | 124.90 | 694.57 | |
50a | 1 h | 1,695.41 | 582.85 | 426.15 | 256.33 | 1,245.15 |
24 h | 2,437.07 | 478.57 | 250.86 | 146.26 | 893.15 | |
100a | 1 h | 1,580.13 | 574.92 | 428.07 | 276.13 | 1,346.66 |
24 h | 2,233.36 | 493.05 | 282.55 | 165.55 | 1,031.40 |
Flood depth
Flood depth . | 5a . | 10a . | 20a . | 50a . | 100a . | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 h . | 24 h . | 1 h . | 24 h . | 1 h . | 24 h . | 1 h . | 24 h . | 1 h . | 24 h . | |
0–0.1 | 80.63% | 97.04% | 71.46% | 93.92% | 63.67% | 89.49% | 54.77% | 82.93% | 49.15% | 78.42% |
0.1–0.3 | 18.45% | 2.40% | 27.31% | 5.38% | 34.73% | 9.68% | 42.67% | 16.05% | 47.19% | 20.42% |
0.3–0.5 | 0.33% | 0.53% | 0.49% | 0.19% | 0.76% | 0.25% | 1.51% | 0.33% | 2.35% | 0.41% |
0.5–1.0 | 0.57% | 0.04% | 0.67% | 0.50% | 0.36% | 0.56% | 0.51% | 0.63% | 0.72% | 0.49% |
>1.0 | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.49% | 0.02% | 0.54% | 0.06% | 0.58% | 0.26% |
Flood depth . | 5a . | 10a . | 20a . | 50a . | 100a . | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 h . | 24 h . | 1 h . | 24 h . | 1 h . | 24 h . | 1 h . | 24 h . | 1 h . | 24 h . | |
0–0.1 | 80.63% | 97.04% | 71.46% | 93.92% | 63.67% | 89.49% | 54.77% | 82.93% | 49.15% | 78.42% |
0.1–0.3 | 18.45% | 2.40% | 27.31% | 5.38% | 34.73% | 9.68% | 42.67% | 16.05% | 47.19% | 20.42% |
0.3–0.5 | 0.33% | 0.53% | 0.49% | 0.19% | 0.76% | 0.25% | 1.51% | 0.33% | 2.35% | 0.41% |
0.5–1.0 | 0.57% | 0.04% | 0.67% | 0.50% | 0.36% | 0.56% | 0.51% | 0.63% | 0.72% | 0.49% |
>1.0 | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.49% | 0.02% | 0.54% | 0.06% | 0.58% | 0.26% |
Analysis of drainage system load conditions
In this study, the assessment of pipeline network overload is approached by analyzing specific model data. The values less than 1 indicate a normal functioning state of the network. A value of 1 signifies the pipeline is in a pressure flow state. This state occurs when the fluid's flow pressure exceeds atmospheric pressure, often resulting from inadequate overflow capacity in the downstream pipeline. When the overload metric equals 2, it is indicative of a situation where the hydraulic slope exceeds the pipe slope. This condition typically arises due to the insufficient drainage capacity of the pipeline itself, leading to an overload state. In summary, overload states in the pipeline network are represented by values of 1 and 2 in the model. Additionally, the presence of water levels greater than 0 at network nodes indicates overflow occurrences. The extent of overload and overflow within the network is detailed in Table 8.
Status . | 5a . | 10a . | 20a . | 50a . | 100a . | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 h . | 24 h . | 1 h . | 24 h . | 1 h . | 24 h . | 1 h . | 24 h . | 1 h . | 24 h . | |
Pipe network | ||||||||||
Normal | 15.32% | 25.81% | 12.50% | 22.18% | 12.50% | 18.55% | 11.69% | 15.32% | 10.89% | 13.71% |
Overload | 84.68% | 74.19% | 87.50% | 77.82% | 87.50% | 81.45% | 88.31% | 84.68% | 89.11% | 86.29% |
Node | ||||||||||
Nonoverflow nodes | 34.05% | 64.22% | 22.41% | 49.14% | 19.40% | 42.24% | 11.21% | 35.34% | 7.76% | 31.90% |
Overflow node | 65.95% | 35.78% | 77.59% | 50.86% | 80.60% | 57.76% | 88.79% | 64.66% | 92.24% | 68.10% |
Status . | 5a . | 10a . | 20a . | 50a . | 100a . | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 h . | 24 h . | 1 h . | 24 h . | 1 h . | 24 h . | 1 h . | 24 h . | 1 h . | 24 h . | |
Pipe network | ||||||||||
Normal | 15.32% | 25.81% | 12.50% | 22.18% | 12.50% | 18.55% | 11.69% | 15.32% | 10.89% | 13.71% |
Overload | 84.68% | 74.19% | 87.50% | 77.82% | 87.50% | 81.45% | 88.31% | 84.68% | 89.11% | 86.29% |
Node | ||||||||||
Nonoverflow nodes | 34.05% | 64.22% | 22.41% | 49.14% | 19.40% | 42.24% | 11.21% | 35.34% | 7.76% | 31.90% |
Overflow node | 65.95% | 35.78% | 77.59% | 50.86% | 80.60% | 57.76% | 88.79% | 64.66% | 92.24% | 68.10% |
It can be seen that under the same rainfall return period, the longer the rainfall duration, the smaller the proportion of overloaded operation of the pipe network, and the proportion of node overflow is also reduced. When the rainfall return period is 5a, 10a, 20a, 50a, and 100a, the rainfall duration from 1 to 24 h, the proportion of overloaded state of the pipe network is reduced by 10.48, 9.68, 6.05, 3.63, and 2.82%. The degree of overflow at the nodes is decreased by 30.17, 26.72, 22.84, 24.14, and 24.14%. At the same rainfall duration, the percentage of overloaded and the percentage of overflow at nodes of the network increases with the increase of the rainfall return period.
The above analysis shows that the pipe network load status is greatly influenced by the rainfall duration, and the increase of rainfall duration is more likely to lead to the change of the pipe network load, and when under 1 h duration, the pipe network in the study area is basically in the full load status when the rainfall return period is more than 50a, and the change of the pipe network load status is no longer obvious with the increase of the rainfall return period.
Flood risk analysis
Designed scenarios . | Area (km2) . | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
I . | II . | III . | IV . | ||
5a | 1 h | 3,256.69 | 147.66 | 29.59 | 0.69 |
24 h | 2,133.56 | 147.13 | 19.85 | 0.00 | |
10a | 1 h | 2,846.06 | 588.30 | 134.46 | 24.64 |
24 h | 2,587.19 | 246.37 | 30.44 | 0.53 | |
20a | 1 h | 2,733.36 | 755.44 | 167.56 | 32.19 |
24 h | 2,770.02 | 346.57 | 33.10 | 3.46 | |
50a | 1 h | 2,596.66 | 939.71 | 203.27 | 41.08 |
24 h | 2,841.32 | 472.73 | 36.56 | 14.21 | |
100a | 1 h | 2,512.64 | 1,050.02 | 229.98 | 48.69 |
24 h | 2,849.20 | 567.98 | 47.15 | 18.30 |
Designed scenarios . | Area (km2) . | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
I . | II . | III . | IV . | ||
5a | 1 h | 3,256.69 | 147.66 | 29.59 | 0.69 |
24 h | 2,133.56 | 147.13 | 19.85 | 0.00 | |
10a | 1 h | 2,846.06 | 588.30 | 134.46 | 24.64 |
24 h | 2,587.19 | 246.37 | 30.44 | 0.53 | |
20a | 1 h | 2,733.36 | 755.44 | 167.56 | 32.19 |
24 h | 2,770.02 | 346.57 | 33.10 | 3.46 | |
50a | 1 h | 2,596.66 | 939.71 | 203.27 | 41.08 |
24 h | 2,841.32 | 472.73 | 36.56 | 14.21 | |
100a | 1 h | 2,512.64 | 1,050.02 | 229.98 | 48.69 |
24 h | 2,849.20 | 567.98 | 47.15 | 18.30 |
For the same rainfall return period, there are some changes in the flood risk areas from a 1 h to a 24 h rainfall duration. For a 100a return period, the low-risk area decreases by 336.56 ha, with the other levels increasing by 482.04, 182.83, and 30.38 ha. The central area has the highest risk, and this region's risk level increases with the return period, spreading outward. High-risk areas are also commonly concentrated near rivers.
The x and y coordinates in Figure 11 indicate the risk level of each grid, which is the dimensionless number. The more concentrated the point is, the higher the risk level is. From Figure 11a and 11b what we can see is that the conversion of flood risk from 5a to 100a risk under different rainfall durations, it can be seen that the vast majority of areas have a more significant increase, a large number of low- and medium-risk areas generally have a tendency to convert to medium and high risk, the maximum change in risk affecting an area of about 252.96 m2. Figure 11c and 11d shows the changes in flood risk for the 5a and 100a scenarios, respectively, and the overall trend shows that the risk level of flooding decreases as the rainfall duration increases, and although there are also a few areas where the risk level is elevated, the vast majority of the medium and high-risk areas show a decreasing tendency.
The results indicate that within the same rainfall return period, the area covered by low-risk zones decreases as the duration of rainfall increases, with most of this reduction shifting to medium- and high-risk areas. Except for low-risk areas, the area covered by all other risk categories increases as the duration of rainfall decreases. Additionally, within the same rainfall duration, the area covered by low-risk zones decreases as the rainfall return period increases. For all other risk categories, their covered areas increase with the increasing return period of rainfall. This analysis suggests that an increase in the rainfall return period leads to more severe flooding. In flood management and during flood events, it is important to focus on high and extremely high-risk areas. It is crucial to consider how flood risks vary with the duration and intensity of rainfall. Thus, attention to floods in low-risk areas is also important, as these areas can easily transition into high-risk zones. The central urban areas, with flat terrain, concentrated population, and high property density, are at high risk of flooding. Flood events in these areas usually result in severe social impacts and substantial economic losses, highlighting the high risk of flood disasters.
CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE WORK
A coupled 1D and 2D model of urban flooding in the Xiong'er River was simulated by InfoWorks ICM, and the validation results showed that the model can be used for flood risk analysis. The model adopts the formula of heavy rainfall intensity in Zhengzhou City, sets up 10 scenarios according to different rainfall return periods and rainfall durations, and analyzes the simulation results of the model in terms of flooding duration, flood depths, flood velocity, and loading of the drainage system. Finally, the quantitative calculation of flood risk and spatial analysis are carried out by adopting the H-V method. By simulating the process of internal flooding and flooding under the design rainfall conditions of different return periods and setting up a series of surface runoff scenarios, this study investigates the influence patterns of surface runoff velocity on the drainage capacity of the pipe network, internal flooding and the inundation area of the flood risk zone in the study area, etc. The main conclusions are as follows:
(1) In our study, flood flow speeds across different rainfall return periods typically range between 0 and 0.5 m/s, increasing with the return period and decreasing with prolonged rainfall duration. Higher flow rates are observed near main drainage outlets and densely populated areas, significantly impacting local movement and safety. The extent of inundation is more severe during 1 h rainfall events compared with 24 h events and tends to intensify with increasing return periods. Interestingly, flood duration shorter than 1 h or longer than 4 h decrease, indicating faster drainage over extended periods. This trend is pronounced near major drainage networks and densely built areas. Our findings reveal that both flood duration and depth increase with rainfall duration and return periods, with marked increases in flood depths ranging from 0–0.1 to 0.1–0.3 m. Overall, inundation is predominantly observed near rivers and in low-lying road areas, mainly due to higher river levels than drainage points or lower terrain in these areas.
(2) Under the same rainfall return period, the longer rainfall duration, the lower proportion of the drainage network exceeding its operational capacity and the lower the incidence of node overflows. Conversely, with the same rainfall duration, both the proportion of the network operating at overload and the node overflow ratio increase as the rainfall return period increases. The drainage network's load status is significantly influenced by the rainfall duration; longer durations are more likely to cause variations in network load. When under the 1 h duration, in scenarios with a 50a or higher rainfall return period, the study area's drainage network is generally operating at full capacity. The variations in network load with increasing rainfall return periods become less pronounced.
(3) Flood risk analysis reveals that within the same rainfall return period, the area of low-risk zones decreases with rainfall duration, often transitioning into medium- and high-risk areas. Except for low-risk zones, the coverage of all other risk categories increases with shorter rainfall duration and expands further with longer return periods. This pattern indicates that the increase of rainfall duration and return periods lead to more severe flooding. In flood management, prioritizing high and extremely high-risk areas is crucial. It is also important to consider how flood risk varies with the duration and intensity of rainfall, making it essential to monitor low-risk areas that could easily shift to higher risk. Urban centers with flat terrain, high population density, and property concentration are particularly vulnerable. Flooding in these areas can cause significant social and economic impacts, emphasizing the high risk of flood disasters.
This study analyzed the flood risk in the study area from multiple perspectives and provided a reference for formulating response measures for flooding disaster prevention and control in the region. In addition, results also help to improve the management level in the process of urban construction. The urban ecological hydrological model constructed in this article can be well applied to the study of urban hydrology, achieving good results in the simulation of hydrology, and urban flooding in urban areas. Due to the limited number of waterlogging points collected, there has been some impact on the accuracy of the model. Based on the analytical results of this paper, we will conduct focused monitoring on areas severely affected in the future. We aim to select key areas for monitoring as part of our phased research outcomes to refine the model, and flood risk analysis can also incorporate more indicators to obtain a better and more comprehensive risk assessment, which is also a key point that should be studied in the future.
AUTHOR CONTRIBUTIONS
H. Wei: Funding acquisition, supervision, and project administration. H. Wu: Data collection, methodology, software, visualization, and writing – original draft. L.Z.: Data collection, methodology, software. J.L.: resources, writing – review and editing. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
FUNDING
This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 51979107, 51909091, and 52209018), the Science and Technology Projects of Water Resources Department of Henan Province, China (GG202332 and GG202334), and the China Scholarship Council (No. 202108410234).
DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT
Data cannot be made publicly available; readers should contact the corresponding author for details.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The authors declare there will be no conflict.